Mining companies improve capital management

“What we have seen in mining as a whole is that companies’ fundamentals are stronger, capital allocation has also improved, and what they pay shareholders has increased. Companies are generating more capital,” says Lucas Zuquim, a partner at BCG in Brazil, based on the study, which takes into account the performance of mining companies and their shares over the past decade.

As large companies, mining firms have begun generating significantly higher free cash flows, reducing leverage, and stabilizing their exploration budgets, the study says. In some cases, they have also adopted a more consistent, less cyclical approach to mergers and acquisitions.

Investor returns, according to Zuquim, are measured in the study using total shareholder return (TSR). The metric takes into account share appreciation on the stock exchange, dividends paid, and interest on equity—in other words, everything shareholders receive. According to BCG, mining companies’ TSR has accelerated globally over the past five years to levels close to those of the building materials and machinery sectors and slightly above those of the oil and gas and metals sectors.

Also according to the study, the sector’s free cash flow generation has shown a clear structural improvement over the years. Annual volume rose to $80–$90 billion in the mid-2020s, up from less than $40 billion in the late 2000s. These levels are 1.5 to 2.5 times higher than those recorded in equivalent commodity price cycles observed 15 or 20 years ago. “Although the evolution of production volumes influences the absolute figures, the observed jump points unequivocally to a financially healthier industry.”

Companies’ use of cash has changed considerably over the past 20 years. Between 2005 and 2008, mining companies spent 46% of cash generation on investments in assets and production, a share that rose to 49% between 2021 and 2025 (the 2025 figure considers the 12 months ended in September). Cash acquisitions, which accounted for 25% of cash allocation from 2005 to 2008, fell to 5% over the past four years. Shareholder remuneration through dividends rose to 35% of cash between 2021 and 2025 from 17% in the early years of the survey. Share buybacks, on the other hand, which once represented about 50% of dividend volume, now account for less than 15%.

According to Zuquim, companies have improved cash generation and reduced leverage. Yet some investors still do not see mining companies as core long-term investments. “Some still see mining as a cyclical business.” The commodities boom driven by China in the early 2000s left a mark on the sector. “They invest, wait for ore prices to rise, and then sell,” he says.

Zuquim, however, says that some companies have disciplined capital management, with merger and acquisition investments not correlated with commodity prices. One example is the copper subsector. To move forward, he says, companies should improve capital allocation and plan long-term acquisitions. “In other words, have a more consistent long-term track record.”

Among the companies included in the study, 10% are Brazilian. Vale is a good case. For Zuquim, the mining company is one of the best examples reinforcing the BCG study’s analysis. “The company’s fundamentals have improved significantly over the past three years. Leverage has fallen, and shareholder remuneration has increased. Vale is delivering on its production guidance and even exceeding it,” he says, referring to the forecasts the company periodically provides. “It is a clear example of how companies are improving business metrics and financial metrics. And the shares are following that movement,” he says.

The company is closely followed by analysts at investment banks and brokerages. According to data compiled by MarketWatch, a tool that tracks companies’ stock-exchange performance, 27 international analysts monitor the mining company’s data. Among this group, the average recommendation is “buy” for the American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) traded in New York, with an average price target of $17.57. The shares closed yesterday at $16.50.

As Zuquim noted, Vale released its projections shortly after publishing its first-quarter earnings. On May 12, it announced that recent changes in market conditions, driven by the conflict in the Middle East, will positively impact its results. The mining company estimates an increase of approximately $1.5 billion in free cash flow for the year in its iron ore unit, supported mainly by a projected $1.2 billion increase in the segment’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) and by $425 million generated from foreign-exchange and fuel hedging programs.

Another example cited by BCG is CSN Mineração. “It improved cash flow and is investing in a new concentration plant.” In addition to CSN Mineração, Zuquim mentions Canada’s Aura Minerals, a gold and copper mining company whose securities are traded on B3. It is a younger company, he says, but it is also delivering to the market what it has forecast. Globally, Zuquim lists giants Rio Tinto and BHP as the most “relevant” mining companies that have improved capital allocation.

To consolidate their role as “great stocks,” mining companies must advance on two main fronts, according to BCG. “The first is resetting capital allocation parameters based on mid-cycle economics—especially urgent for precious metals companies and copper producers exposed to market euphoria,” the study says. “The second is developing clearer, investor-centered equity narratives, with quantified commitments to margin expansion, ROCE [return on capital employed] improvement, capital-efficient production growth, and more resilient cash generation throughout the cycle.”