NEWSLETTER
March 2026
02/03/2026
CABO VERDE MINERAÇÃO FINDS NEW RARE EARTHS AREA IN MINAS GERAIS
Company seeks international partners to fund processing complex
Cabo Verde Mineração, a Brazilian company based in Belo Horizonte, has identified a new target area for rare earth extraction. The site, known as Alvo Botelhos, lies on the edge of the Poços de Caldas Alkaline Complex in southern Minas Gerais and has potential resources exceeding 500 million tonnes of ionic clays.
The company is in talks with international groups to finance the construction of an industrial complex to process the rare earth elements.
“The scale of the project, with more than 91,000 hectares across 57 mining rights, along with the results we have so far, point to the potential for a world-class project,” said Túlio Rivadávia Amaral, CEO of Cabo Verde Mineração.
Ionic clay is a type of clay that contains rare earth ions and is used in energy transition technologies, wind power generation, high-efficiency motors, electric vehicle batteries, advanced electronics, and other applications. In the Alvo Botelhos area, tests indicated the presence of high-value magnetic elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, according to Rivadávia.
Exploration at Alvo Botelhos is being conducted alongside drilling at Alvo Caconde 1, located in the same Poços de Caldas complex, where the company initially pursued an iron ore project.
The targets lie within a block of approximately 91,000 hectares covering four municipalities in Minas Gerais—Muzambinho, Cabo Verde, Campestre, and Botelhos—as well as Caconde in São Paulo state. Rivadávia said the mining company holds 57 mineral rights for exploration in the region.
Among the technical results from priority targets are intervals of 16 meters with average grades of 2,245 parts per million of total rare earth oxides (TREO), including readings of 4,302 ppm TREO and 854 ppm magnetic rare earth oxides (MREO).
“Anomalies are distributed across all four quadrants of the surveyed areas, with results reaching as high as 14,000 ppm and significant recurrence in the 3,000-ppm range,” said Oscar Yokoi, a geologist and technical consultant and a member of the Australian Institute of Geoscientists.
SGS Geosol conducted metallurgical leaching tests, which showed TREO recoveries of up to 81.7% and MREO recoveries above 60%, indicating technical and economic feasibility for mining. Samples were analyzed and certified by ALS Brasil and SGS Geosol laboratories.
Rivadávia told Valor that the project began as an iron mining venture in 2020, but during studies a hydrothermal alteration—a volcanic fissure—was identified, suggesting the presence of rare earths. The company then decided to focus on further exploration.
Research began in 2022. The first discovery was at the Caconde target, in the municipality of the same name, and the second was made now. “At Alvo Caconde, we identified a potential of 100 million tonnes of rare earths at 3,200 ppm. That alone could supply a plant for 20 years with output of 5 million tonnes per year. With Botelhos, the expectation is at least 500 million tonnes,” Rivadávia said.
An initial economic assessment at Alvo Botelhos indicated extraction potential of at least 500 million tonnes of rare earths. Drilling began last week.
Rivadávia said he is in talks with groups from the European Union, Canada, the United States and China to raise funding for the project, though the names of the groups remain confidential at this stage.
For the first phase, covering exploration and certification of the areas, Cabo Verde Mineração is investing about $10 million of its own funds.
The company is seeking financing to build the industrial complex, which is expected to require $370 million for a plant with capacity to process 5 million tonnes per year.
The initial plan is to install the plant in Cabo Verde, Minas Gerais, where the company already holds licenses to extract and process iron ore.
In parallel with the rare earth project, Cabo Verde Mineração resumed in December 2025 its iron ore mining project at the Catumbi Mine, located in Cabo Verde and Muzambinho, southern Minas Gerais. The project had been halted for two years while the company focused on rare earth exploration.
“The iron ore reserve is small, close to one million tonnes. We have a license to extract 600,000 tonnes per year. I estimate it will be a project lasting about two and a half years,” Rivadávia said. The company plans to produce lump ore and sinter feed with an average iron content of 66%, aimed at the domestic market.
The rare earth project, however, is expected to take six to seven years to complete the industrial complex and obtain all licenses and certifications needed for production, according to the executive.
Rare earth mining differs from other types of extraction. The company uses ammonium sulfate, which exchanges ions with the clay to separate the rare earth elements. The clay is then returned to the environment enriched with ammonia, a type of fertilizer.
Much of the land involved is currently used for large-scale coffee plantations. “Our intention is to partner with producers. We pay compensation for coffee trees removed during mining. Farmers also receive an exploration royalty equal to 0.5% of CFEM [Brazil’s financial compensation for mineral resource exploitation],” Rivadávia said.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
___________________________________
03/02/2026
CLOSED-DOOR VOTE AT BRAZIL REGULATOR SPARKS SCRUTINY IN AMBIPAR CASE
Public spending watchdog questions CVM decision that spared company from tender offer benefiting Banco Master
The decisive meeting that upheld the controversial ruling by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (CVM) exempting Ambipar from launching a mandatory takeover bid—a decision that ultimately benefited Banco Master—was held behind closed doors and included the participation of an external federal prosecutor with no formal link to the case. Both elements, considered unusual by insiders, had remained internal matters within the regulator. They have now come to light after the technical staff of the public spending watchdog, TCU, questioned the vote.
In recent weeks, Valor spoke with several CVM officials who participated in or had knowledge of details from the session, held just days before Christmas. The minutes of the meeting have yet to be published—another peculiarity in the case. Typically, the agency releases minutes roughly 30 days after its meetings.
In addition to confirming on the merits the decision to waive Ambipar’s obligation to conduct a takeover bid, the board unanimously upheld the casting vote of then-interim chairman Otto Lobo, which is now under scrutiny by the TCU, as previously reported by Valor. Lobo has been nominated by President Lula to chair the CVM and is awaiting Senate confirmation.
Contacted by Valor, Lobo confirmed details of the meeting but said the deliberations followed standard institutional procedures applied in similar cases.
The Ambipar matter was the final item on an agenda that included five other proceedings, in a meeting that began at 10 a.m. on December 23, a Tuesday. The board was set to analyze appeals involving a pharmaceutical company, irregularities in the capital markets, and administrative matters under the CVM’s authority.
When Lobo called for a vote on the Ambipar appeal, participants were surprised by an unusual request: he asked all staff members not directly linked to the case to leave the room.
Although the CVM’s Tuesday morning board deliberations are not open to the public, it is uncommon to ask agency staff to exit, as attendance by employees not directly involved in a specific case is generally permitted. Exceptions typically apply only when a matter is classified as confidential, which was not the case for the Ambipar discussion. After asking staff to leave, Lobo informed those present that he had called in an external participant.
The individual was federal prosecutor Ilene Patrícia de Noronha Najjarian, who has worked at the CVM for many years and currently serves as a sitting member of the National Financial System Appeals Council (CRSFN), which reviews sanctions imposed by the CVM, the Central Bank, and the Financial Activities Control Council (COAF). She is in her second term representing the CVM at the appeals body.
According to accounts from those present, Najjarian’s participation caused discomfort. The CVM’s Specialized Federal Attorney’s Office (PFE) had previously taken an institutional position against Lobo’s interpretation, arguing that he should not have exercised the casting vote that exempted Ambipar from the tender offer requirement. In the PFE’s view, Lobo could not break the tie because when the case first came before the board, he was not the CVM’s chairman. At the time, João Pedro Nascimento chaired the agency and had voted in favor of requiring the takeover bid.
When the case returned to the agenda after Lobo requested additional review, the vote was tied two-to-two. Director Marina Copola sided with Nascimento in favor of the tender offer, while Director João Accioly voted with Lobo. Lobo then cast the tie-breaking vote in favor of Ambipar and its shareholders, including Banco Master, Nelson Tanure, and controlling shareholder Tércio Borlenghi Junior.
During the December meeting, the PFE reiterated its position, this time through acting chief federal prosecutor Marcelo Mello Alves Pereira, who had taken over from Luciana Alves. She had stepped down from the role in September, months after formally opposing Lobo’s interpretation.
According to people familiar with the matter, Alves had already indicated she intended to head the CVM’s attorney’s office for only two years. She had been in charge of the Specialized Federal Attorney’s Office (PFE) since 2023. However, Valor has learned that Lobo’s appointment as interim chairman of the CVM also weighed on her decision, given that the PFE provides direct legal counsel to the chairman, who is responsible for appointing the head of the office.
In this context, Marcelo Mello Alves Pereira was serving as head of the CVM’s legal department. Although he maintained the PFE’s formal position against Lobo’s procedural interpretation, the interim chairman gave the floor to Najjarian, who spoke in support of Lobo’s view and against the stance of the PFE itself.
Participants described the moment as awkward, noting that Najjarian’s remarks contradicted the position of her direct superior. Among federal prosecutors, the episode was viewed as a form of insubordination. Sources also noted that in recent years, there have been no reports of Najjarian participating in board-level decision meetings, as she does not hold a leadership role within the PFE.
“If everyone not linked to the case had to leave the room, why was a prosecutor who did not head the legal department allowed in to contradict her superiors?” a CVM source told Valor.
During Lobo’s interim leadership, sources said Najjarian had been consulted on other occasions regarding legal doubts in certain decisions. Should the Senate confirm Lobo as chairman, she is considered the leading candidate to head the PFE-CVM.
Another element that drew attention during the December judgment was the stance of CVM Superintendent-General Alexandre Pinheiro, who heads the agency’s technical staff. Although the technical department had challenged Lobo’s interpretation, exempting Ambipar from the tender offer, Pinheiro submitted a written statement supporting Lobo’s view, which was read during the meeting. He was not present at the session.
Pinheiro’s position was poorly received by other superintendents, who felt unsupported in a high-profile and controversial case. In the initial vote, when Lobo cast the deciding vote, Pinheiro had not made any statement, despite being present at that session.
At the conclusion of the December meeting, the board unanimously rejected the appeal filed by the technical staff. While Copola maintained that the tender offer was required, she supported Lobo’s interpretation regarding the casting vote.
The connection between Banco Master and Ambipar emerged after the capital markets regulator investigated an alleged coordinated operation involving the bank and businessmen Nelson Tanure and Tércio Borlenghi Jr., Ambipar’s main shareholder, to boost the company’s share price by roughly 800% between June and August 2024. Had Ambipar been required to conduct a tender offer, those shareholders would have faced multi-billion-real payments.
The TCU’s technical staff identified “indications of wrongdoing” in Lobo’s casting vote. In a formal opinion, they concluded that because the original judgment began under João Pedro Nascimento’s presidency, the tie-breaking vote should have been attributed to him, even though he was not present at the December session.
Lobo was nominated to chair the CVM by President Lula in January, in a move that reportedly went against the preference of the Finance Ministry, to which the CVM is linked. His nomination has been attributed to members of the judiciary, business figures close to Lula, and leaders from the Centrão, a cluster of center-to-right parties in Congress.
In a statement to Valor, Lobo said the “conduct of the proceedings observed the applicable institutional procedures.” The removal of individuals from the room, he said, aimed to “minimize the risk of information leakage before official publication.”
Regarding Najjarian’s participation, Lobo said she “had a formal understanding of the case, as did the superintendent-general.” He described the move as consistent with session dynamics “whenever legal advisory support or the hearing of professionals with broad technical insight is deemed appropriate.”
Former PFE chief Luciana Alves said, through the Federal Attorney General’s Office (AGU), that her departure was for personal reasons unrelated to the Ambipar case.
Najjarian said inquiries should be directed to the CVM and the AGU. Both institutions were contacted.
In a statement, the CVM said the minutes had not yet been published “due to workflow” and would be made available “in due course.” Regarding Najjarian’s presence, the regulator did not provide a copy of her statement or explain the reason for her participation, saying the relevant institutional information would be reflected in the minutes.
On the superintendent-general’s absence, the CVM said he was “on recess” and represented by his deputy, Maria Lúcia Macieira de Mello. The agency did not provide the written statement read during the session and recommended “consultation of the meeting minutes at the appropriate time.”
Valor also asked how many board meetings Najjarian attended over the past five years, but received no response. The CVM likewise did not answer whether she would declare herself recused from judging Ambipar-related cases at the CRSFN should appeals arise in the future.
All other parties mentioned were contacted. Banco Master and Ambipar declined to comment by press time. Nelson Tanure said his acquisition of Ambipar shares occurred after the events described by the CVM and that there were no irregularities.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
__________________________________
03/11/2026
LNG PRICES SURGE AMID MIDDLE EAST WAR; IMPACT IN BRAZIL IS LIMITED
Gulf supply disruptions tighten market, while Brazil’s reliance on alternative suppliers may soften local effects
The war in the Middle East has pushed liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices up by more than 70%, driven by two main factors: the halt in supply from Qatar, one of the world’s largest exporters, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, through which about 20% of global oil flows. In Brazil, however, the impact of the LNG price surge on domestic prices is expected to be limited, according to experts interviewed by Valor.
Before the conflict began, on February 27, LNG was priced at €32.38 per megawatt-hour (MWh). By Monday (9), it had risen to €55.86 per MWh, a 73% increase in the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) market, one of the main global benchmarks for the commodity.
After a bombing at the Ras Laffan facility in Qatar on March 2, QatarEnergy suspended LNG production. One of the main challenges resulting from the shutdown is the lack of viable alternative routes for transporting large volumes, which has pushed prices higher. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that a prolonged supply interruption could worsen shortages in the market.
Vitor Santos, a professor of economics at the Lisbon School of Economics & Management (ISEG), said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz limits export capacity for several producing countries. Importers, meanwhile, face supply difficulties. “The closure of the Strait of Hormuz harms producers in the Persian Gulf and the main Asian consumers of oil and natural gas, which have a high dependence on fossil fuel imports,” Santos said.
An analysis by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) in June 2025 had already assessed that a global LNG price shock triggered by the closure of Hormuz could resemble the surge seen in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, when spot prices approached $30 per million BTU. “Another price shock similar to that of 2022 could bring direct consequences to government budgets in Europe and Asia,” the study said.
In Brazil, LNG began to be used in the 2000s as the country struggled to expand its natural gas supply for thermal power generation. Petrobras installed three regasification terminals at the time—one in Rio de Janeiro, one in Ceará, and another in Bahia. Today, Brazil has six LNG terminals in operation. According to experts, price and supply effects in the local market should remain limited.
Rodrigo Borges, managing director of Aurora Energy Research in Brazil, said that when LNG prices surge globally, the marginal cost of thermal plants increases, potentially pushing up electricity prices in Brazil, particularly when the power system needs to activate these plants.
Diogo Lisbona, a researcher at FGV Ceri, explained that energy and natural gas prices could reflect the effects of the war in the short term. This is because large consumers and some thermal plants operate under contracts with quarterly adjustments linked to the weighted average of Brent crude prices.
Rivaldo Moreira Neto, managing partner at A&M Infra, said oil markets are broader and allow some mitigation of Hormuz-related disruptions through increased production elsewhere in the world. LNG, however, does not have the same flexibility. Moreira noted that Europe and Asia are major consumers of Qatari LNG and emphasized that the Hormuz blockade is more significant for LNG than for oil.
“Brazil, as an importer, is not necessarily expected to face supply interruptions, since we import from the United States and the United Kingdom. The issue is price, which should rise significantly,” Moreira said.
Adriano Pires, a partner at the Brazilian Infrastructure Center (CBIE), believes any effects will likely be limited and related to potential rerouting of ships to meet specific demand. Pires noted that in Brazil, natural gas is generally traded through long-term contracts. Concern may focus on the capacity reserve auction scheduled for March 18.
According to PSR Consultoria, the impact of the crisis on Brazil’s market will depend on how many thermal plants have fuel costs tied to international prices and how these indicators evolve. “If the crisis persists, pressure on these indices will be strong, leading to higher variable costs for thermal plants and impacts on electricity prices,” PSR said.
One point of attention is the availability of gas for thermal plants during the conflict and how much Middle Eastern supply could be replaced by U.S. exports. PSR notes that the United States is expected to add around 60 million tonnes per year of new LNG export capacity between 2026 and 2027. “Although this volume would not replace Qatar, it is a robust amount that could help cushion demand in a prolonged crisis.”
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com/
______________________________________
03/16/2026
MASTER USED CARTEL-LINKED SUPPLIER TO MOVE DEPOSITOR MONEY
Provider of school kits, Army goods and water cisterns took an unusual loan and transferred R$385 million to a fund managed by asset manager Reag
Banco Master used a company linked to a public procurement cartel to divert R$385 million raised from depositors to funds managed by asset manager Reag, Valor has found based on public documents and on a Central Bank report sent to prosecutors about allegedly fraudulent credit operations.
EBN Comércio, Importação e Exportação Ltda. and its controlling shareholder, Julio Manfredini, have been active in public tenders to supply a wide range of products, including school uniform kits, books, Army footwear and even water cisterns for drought relief in Brazil’s semiarid Northeast, either directly or through consortia with other companies.
In at least one case, the tender stemmed from mandatory congressional caucus earmarks and included a direct request from then-Senator Roberto Rocha of Maranhão state, from the Republicans Party, that a specific price-registration record be used to purchase 500 cisterns for the state.
A report of suspected crimes sent by the Central Bank to prosecutors in November says EBN obtained a loan from Banco Master with no apparent economic justification. The company then transferred R$385 million to D Mais fund, managed by Reag.
From there, the funds were reallocated through a chain of funds in a transaction that allegedly served to divert the money to other purposes. The transaction is part of a set of operations involving 36 companies, whose names were disclosed by Valor, that allegedly led to a total diversion of R$11.5 billion from Banco Master.
Manfredini is EBN’s managing partner, according to records at the São Paulo State Board of Trade.
That company, Manfredini himself, have ties to Capricórnio S/A, which in 2021 was convicted by Brazil’s antitrust watchdog, Cade, for operating a cartel in public tenders for school uniforms and school supply kits for public school students in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Santa Catarina and Goiás between 2007 and 2012.
That case also gave rise to a criminal proceeding in São Paulo over alleged violations of Brazil’s bidding law, which was dismissed in 2025 after the court found that prosecutors had failed to individualize the conduct of each defendant. There is also a civil case for administrative misconduct still pending in São Paulo.
Another proceeding, at Brazil’s Federal Court of Accounts, or TCU, involving Army procurement, shows that Capricórnio was EBN’s sole shareholder at incorporation and that EBN is its successor, keeping the same address and 70% of its workforce. Manfredini was Capricórnio’s chief executive.
According to Valor’s review, EBN took part in tenders and signed contracts with the Army between 2016 and 2024 to supply equipment such as tents, uniforms and footwear. There are no suspicions regarding those contracts, but the TCU’s technical staff did investigate flaws in oversight of footwear delivered by EBN, without imposing any sanctions.
Cistern contracts
In addition to direct tenders, EBN also joined five consortia, and some partners in those ventures are under investigation, including for alleged irregularities in the supply of textbooks in Rio de Janeiro.
EBN formed the Consortium EC, for which there are no documented suspicions of wrongdoing, alongside CSL Educacional, a company cited in the Calvário operation. One of its partners, Márcio Nogueira Vignoli, was arrested during the investigation and is awaiting trial out of custody.
One of EBN’s contracts involved the supply of cisterns in Maranhão and stands out because it originated in mandatory congressional caucus earmarks and because of the direction given to the type of bidding process that led to the R$2.4 million purchase in 2017.
Senator Rocha, then a member of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party, sent a letter to the head of Codevasf, the São Francisco Valley Development Company, stating that R$5 million in congressional earmarks had been allocated to buy cisterns and requesting that the company express interest in price-registration record No. 24/2017 from the Federal Institute of Education of Ceará, or IFCE, Maracanaú campus.
In practice, that meant the purchase, initially estimated at 2,400 cisterns but with only 500 ultimately acquired, piggybacked on a much smaller IFCE tender aimed at buying 50 storage tanks for the institute. At first glance, there is no irregularity in that mechanism, which saves procedural costs. What stands out is that the request came from a politician, rather than from Codevasf’s technical staff.
The procedure also required discussions among Codevasf technicians because it fell outside the usual standards of the Água para Todos (Water for All) program, under which the policy for distributing cisterns follows defined priorities. In the end, the cisterns were donated to nonprofit associations, such as rural unions, which then distributed the units to beneficiary families.
EBN said the loan from Banco Master was entirely lawful and was intended to provide capital for the acquisition of a large textile company. The resources were partly invested in D Mais fund, managed by Reag, then regarded as a reputable institution in the market, so the money would not sit idle.
“The negotiations did not go ahead because of unresolved differences and the complexity of the ownership structure,” the company said in a statement. EBN repaid the loan to Banco Master.
The company said Capricórnio has an independent structure from EBN and that a lawsuit was filed seeking to nullify Cade’s decision. “The criminal and misconduct cases have all, so far, been decided in Capricórnio’s favor.”
On the consortia, it said EBN conducted due diligence through compliance mechanisms. “At the time the consortium was formed, EBN had no relationship with legal entities whose executives were under investigation or facing criminal proceedings.” In the case of the cisterns, the company said the deal was approved by all oversight bodies and denied any relationship that was not in strict compliance with the rules.
Senator Roberto Rocha said joining IFCE’s price-registration record was an administrative decision to make it possible to execute the earmarks within the budget timetable, since the funds are generally released at the end of the year. He said the project followed Codevasf’s technical rules and the legal requirements for mandatory earmarks, that his office maintained institutional contact only with IFCE, and that there was no relationship with the company that won the tender.
Codevasf said it did not join a price-registration record for a tender that had already been completed, but rather one that had yet to be held, with open competition and acquisition of goods at the lowest price. “Communications between agencies to express purchase intentions are routine,” it said.
“For funding provided through a congressional earmark, identifying the beneficiaries is the responsibility of the lawmaker who submitted the earmark,” the company said in a statement. Even so, it said, parameters similar to those of the Water for All program were adopted, which helped ensure that the funds were directed to vulnerable families.
IFCE said the Maracanaú campus acted only as the manager of the price-registration record, regularly conducting the auction and managing the record. According to the institute, adhesion by other public bodies is allowed by both the tender notice and legislation, and it is up to the joining body, in this case Codevasf, to assess technical suitability, quantities and budget availability.
IFCE also said there were no spending commitments by Codevasf while the record was in effect and that the process followed normal procedures, with a favorable legal opinion.
The Army said its contracts with EBN are available on Brazil’s Transparency Portal and that, so far, no signs of irregularities or failures in oversight have been identified. It also said there are no ongoing proceedings or audits at the Federal Court of Accounts involving contracts with the company.
Lawyers for Banco Master controlling shareholder, Daniel Vorcaro, said they would not comment on the matter. Reag had not responded to requests for comment by the time this edition went to press, nor had the companies that are part of the consortia with EBN.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
____________________________________
03/17/2026
FOREIGN INVESTORS RAISE SHARE OF BRAZIL M&A TO 41%
Trend reflects global portfolio reallocation and shifting geopolitical dynamics
The share of foreign investors in competitive bids for Brazilian companies has risen again as a direct result of the global portfolio reallocation trend and a new geopolitical dynamic, partly driven by uncertainty under Donald Trump’s administration, which has favored emerging markets.
As a result, overseas investors accounted for a larger share of total deals completed in Brazil. Their participation in mergers and acquisitions rose from 31% of the total in 2024 to 41% last year.
That means that, of the R$267.7 billion in M&A deals recorded in 2025, R$110 billion came from foreign acquisitions. Based on the number of deals, the share rose from 26% to 34% in 2025. Of 342 transactions in total, 116 involved foreign buyers.
The trend has been even more evident at the start of this year, which has already seen major cross-border deals. In the first two months of the year, the foreign share reached 76%, still based on the number of transactions, according to data from Dealogic, a consultancy that compiles market data worldwide.
This year, one of the main foreign-related transactions is the sale of aluminum producer CBA, previously owned by Votorantim, to China’s Chinalco and Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto, in a R$4.7 billion deal. Another relevant transaction was the sale of IHS Towers’ tower assets in Brazil to Macquarie Asset Management.
In March, the entry of U.S. fund Warburg Pincus into egg producer Global Eggs, with a $1 billion investment, reinforced the trend. In 2025, highlights included Iberdrola’s increased stake in Neoenergia and the sale of Motiva’s airports to Mexican group Asur.
Shift toward emerging markets
With global volatility, much of it tied to measures taken by U.S. President Donald Trump, and amid a weakening dollar, global capital has been moving toward emerging markets, benefiting Brazil.
That has been more evident in the stock market, where foreign inflows reached about R$40 billion just at the start of this year, already surpassing the total for 2025, when inflows amounted to R$25 billion. The same trend, however, is now beginning to show up in the M&A industry.
“The global portfolio diversification trend, which we have seen more clearly in the capital markets, is now also becoming visible in M&A,” said Flavio Egon de Picciotto, co-head of M&A at Itaú BBA. He noted that investor interest is most visible in sectors such as infrastructure, energy, and natural resources. “Energy remains a driver, always the most representative,” he said.
Foreign participation in M&A talks has not been driven only by U.S. investors, highlighting the search for diversification across geographies. “At the turn of 2025 to 2026, discussions about capital reallocation increased, with flows into emerging markets. The environment of persistent uncertainty increased the weight of diversification. We are also seeing growing interest from European and Asian investors in assets in Brazil,” said Anderson Brito, head of investment banking at UBS BB.
In the breakdown of 2025 cross-border deals, North America accounted for 14.3%, while Europe represented 36.7% and Asia 34%.
Broader interest
Fabio Medeiros, head of Morgan Stanley’s investment banking business in Brazil, said he expects a busier year for M&A activity in the country. “There is a flow heading toward emerging markets, and that is starting to show up in M&A, with companies that might have considered investing in the United States now looking at Brazil,” he said. One of the highlights, Medeiros added, is the appearance of new foreign buyers.
“Brazil is well positioned to attract foreign investment,” he said. In addition to the traditional infrastructure and natural resources sectors, which have historically attracted this type of capital, he highlighted interest in the financial and technology sectors.
Diogo Aragão, head of M&A at Bank of America in Brazil, said the new global dynamic has increased foreign interest in certain segments, such as infrastructure and, more recently, natural resources, with greater concentration in mining, including rare earths. “We are seeing a diversification trend in funding sources, and I think it is here to stay,” said the BofA executive.
Beyond those sectors, he said Brazil’s technology segment also has the potential to attract foreign investors, given that major global players remain underpenetrated in the country. Last year, the main transaction in that segment was the entry of European giant Visma into Brazil through the acquisition of Conta Azul.
Pedro Muzzi of Goldman Sachs stressed that foreign interest in Brazilian assets has been rising, with new names joining the processes. “There is a lot of appetite and interest in Brazil. It is hotter than ever,” he said.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
_____________________________________
03/17/2026
U.S. SEEKS POLITICAL SIGNAL FROM BRAZIL ON CRITICAL MINERALS DEAL
Washington proposes tailored framework with price floor and financing as Brasília remains divided over openness
The Trump administration is awaiting a “clear political signal” from Brazil to move forward with a bilateral agreement on critical minerals, according to a spokesperson for the U.S. Embassy. The proposal is to establish a tailored cooperation framework between the two countries, including priorities such as setting a minimum price for these materials.
Critical minerals—used in advanced technologies in sectors such as defense and communications—have become a focal point of geopolitical competition.
The U.S. aims to build a partnership with Brazil capable of strengthening both countries’ industrial and technological bases. According to the spokesperson, Washington is interested in cooperating to expand processing capacity for these minerals.
More than 50 mining projects in Brazil have already been identified “that could contribute to international efforts to diversify and strengthen global supply chains for critical minerals,” the spokesperson said.
To enhance its position in the sector, the United States has outlined priorities, including discussions on a price floor, incentives for responsible investment in mining and processing that benefit both countries’ industrial bases, and streamlined licensing procedures. U.S. officials emphasize that the dialogue is intended to deliver mutual benefits.
Brazil holds the world’s second-largest reserves
Brazil’s rare earth reserves—estimated at 21 million tonnes—are emerging as a key element in global geopolitics. The country holds the world’s second-largest reserves but still lags in extracting these elements.
Given Brazil’s potential, the United States says the country could play a central role in developing global supply chains for critical minerals. “The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the Export-Import Bank of the United States are offering more than $600 million in financing for ongoing critical minerals projects in Brazil, and we see potential for billions of dollars in additional investment,” the embassy spokesperson said, referring to U.S. government-backed institutions.
Seeking to deepen cooperation, the U.S. government will host an event this week to discuss opportunities for collaboration with Brazil in the sector. The Critical Minerals Forum will take place on March 18 in São Paulo and is expected to bring together more than 100 companies and representatives from state governments.
Brazil currently occupies a paradoxical position in the geopolitics of energy-transition minerals: it holds vast reserves but remains a minor producer, resulting in the underutilization of significant economic potential for income, industrialization, and technological development. This gap—typical of countries that fail to convert comparative advantage into competitive advantage—represents the main measurable economic opportunity for the coming decades.
As Valor reported, members of the Brazilian government say the critical minerals agenda remains stalled due to a lack of internal consensus on how open the country should be to foreign participation.
One faction within the Lula administration argues that imposing constraints on the sector at this stage would be counterproductive, given Brazil’s vast potential. These officials oppose agreements that could introduce restrictions on domestic production. This was also one of the main reasons Brazil declined to join a U.S.-led alliance on critical minerals and rare earths announced in early February.
Given the strategic importance of the issue, critical minerals are expected to feature on the agenda of a bilateral meeting between Lula and Trump, tentatively scheduled for March or April, though no date has been set.
Brazilian government sources argue that the country should engage with multiple partners rather than align exclusively with any single country or bloc. At the same time, they resist the idea that Brazil should remain merely a supplier of raw materials.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
___________________________________
03/23/2026
SPECIAL PENSIONS EXPAND IN BRAZIL, BUCKING GLOBAL TREND
Benefit covering rural workers and teachers makes up 40% of scheduled retirements, in a pattern with no parallel in the OECD
Special pensions granted to rural workers, teachers, and people exposed to harmful agents accounted for nearly 40% of so-called scheduled retirements—those based on age and years of contributions—granted by Brazil’s General Social Security Regime (RGPS) in 2024.
That level is far above what is seen in the 38 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). In Greece, the country with the highest share, special pensions account for 11% of the total. Of the 38 countries analyzed, 27 grant special pensions, while 11 do not offer early retirement.
The figures come from the study Aposentadorias Especiais: Tendências Internacionais e o Caso Brasileiro (Special Pensions: International Trends and the Brazilian Case), by Rogério Nagamine Constanzi, a researcher at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea). The survey shows that internationally, the trend has been to restrict or eliminate special pensions, amid doubts about their effectiveness.
In Brazil, these rules have contributed not only to earlier retirements but also to a rise in benefits granted through the courts.
“The standard argument for allowing early retirement based solely on the inability to continue a career in a specific job has lost strength over time. Many OECD countries have eliminated or restricted access to special or early retirement for dangerous or strenuous jobs.
“Labor-market policies should seek to prepare workers for career changes at some point, so they can remain employed until the minimum retirement age. In the Brazilian case, there is a need for more efficient active labor-market policies,” the study says.
Economists interviewed by Valor support adjustments to special regimes in a new pension reform to slow the pace of spending on retirement and survivor benefits.
In Brazil, special pensions under the RGPS include those for rural workers, teachers, workers exposed to harmful agents, and insured persons with disabilities. In the public-sector pension system, known as the RPPS, they include those granted to teachers, workers exposed to harmful agents, insured persons with disabilities, military personnel, and police officers.
Rural pensions
Nagamine’s study shows that, if rural pensions alone are considered, special pensions accounted for 35.6% of total scheduled RGPS retirements in December 2024. If pensions granted for exposure to harmful agents and those for teachers are also included, the share rises to 38.7%. That percentage would be even higher if pensions for people with disabilities were included.
“Out of a total of 20.2 million scheduled pensions under the RGPS, about 7.2 million were rural pensions, almost all based on age. In fact, considering only age-based pensions, rural pensions accounted for 54.4% of the total in December 2024. If all pensions are considered, including disability pensions, the rural share falls to one-third (32.4% of the total),” the study says.
The survey also shows that in the state-level RPPS, the estimate for 2022 was that elementary-education teachers accounted for about four out of every 10 retirees, or 42%. “All of these figures reinforce the diagnosis that special or early pensions in Brazil have a high level of coverage compared with the international landscape,” Nagamine writes in the study.
The weight of special pensions for basic-education teachers in state and municipal public-sector pension systems stands out because the benefit is uncommon in OECD countries, where it was found in only six: Belgium, Colombia, Costa Rica, Estonia, Italy, and Poland.
This high degree of differentiated treatment in retirement has fueled debate, especially internationally, over whether the measure is really effective or whether it would be more appropriate to establish better working conditions through health and safety regulations, limiting exposure to risk factors and encouraging social partners to adopt measures in that direction.
Of the OECD’s 38 member countries, for example, in 15—or 39.5% of the total—there is no special pension, or it is limited to police officers, firefighters, or military personnel. “In Brazil, there is a history of broad coverage for special pensions without there necessarily being a basis in solid evidence,” the study says.
Pressure for reform
The survey also says it is necessary to take into account that the risks involved in certain occupations or sectors are not fixed over time—new risks or new occupations may emerge—and that the labor force shifts, for example, from agriculture and industry to the services sector. “There is a possibility that, due to technological progress, hardship will continue to decline, because strenuous or arduous work tends to be progressively replaced by technology,” the study says.
Nagamine also notes that the debate over whether the characteristics of a certain type of work justify early or special retirement compared with the general rule is complex and sometimes involves political power or corporate interests that can lead to unfair treatment. In OECD countries, for example, there has been a movement to restrict this type of benefit.
“In theory, early retirement would be a way to compensate workers in occupations or activities that, in the medium and long term, tend to reduce life expectancy. For that reason, the criteria should not be limited to wear and tear at work, but should encompass the potential negative effects of working conditions on health,” the study says, adding that the complexity of the issue is worsened by the growing focus on psychological problems caused by stress at work.
The study also says that in Brazil the average duration of these benefits has increased as a result of longer life expectancy among recipients of special pensions. The average duration of this type of benefit rose from about 14.1 years in 2000 to 29.2 years in 2021.
For Luís Eduardo Afonso, a professor at the School of Economics and Administration at the University of São Paulo, “exceptions are, as a rule, bad.” “They are a form of differentiated treatment for a group that managed to make its pressure power count,” the expert said. In the pension reform enacted in November 2019, military personnel were left out, and some categories kept more favorable retirement conditions than the general rule.
Otávio Sidone, a federal civil servant, Social Security specialist, and doctoral student at the University of Brasília, said special regimes need to be continually assessed so that any subsidies to the public debate can be made clear.
Arnaldo Lima, the economist in charge of institutional relations at Polo Capital, added that special pension regimes, besides carrying a high cost for public finances, encourage early retirement. “They should only be preserved when there is objective proof of risk or hardship, with extra financial compensation in the labor market, and not in Social Security.”
He also said the growing number of benefit claims going through the courts, especially in rural areas, is a concern. “In rural areas alone, 30% of benefits depend on court rulings. The solution involves binding administrative precedents, standardized criteria, and greater digitization. Litigation often stems from a lack of legal clarity,” he said.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
_________________________________
03/23/2026
HOTEL CHAINS EXPAND INTO BRAZIL’S AGRIBUSINESS CITIES
Growth in farming regions is driving hotel development across Brazil, with international operators targeting secondary markets, new demand hubs
The strength of Brazil’s agribusiness sector, which has fueled broad economic growth in countryside cities, has supported the hotel industry’s expansion in recent years. Cities in the Central-West, South, and Southeast that once had limited hospitality infrastructure have become increasingly construction hubs for new developments.
Beyond local entrepreneurs’ role in project financing, the sector has benefited from development banks, which have been key in a high-interest-rate environment.
The surge in hotel demand in agribusiness regions has surprised French hotel group Accor.
“We operate with a highly structured approach, mapping around 100 key cities along Brazil’s so-called agribusiness corridor. We are already present in more than 30 cities like those and continue to expand,” Thomas Dubaere, CEO of Accor Americas for the premium, midscale, and economy division, told Valor.
One standout region is Matopiba, which spans the Brazilian cerrado biome across the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia. “This is a region experiencing strong agricultural expansion and attracting investment,” Dubaere said.
In Brazil, Accor opened ten new hotels last year, including two in agribusiness regions: ibis Styles Bonito (Mato Grosso do Sul) and ibis Primavera do Leste (Mato Grosso). It also signed agreements for five additional hotels in locations such as Chapadão do Sul and Bonito.
The group currently operates 30 hotels in agribusiness cities, totaling 4,135 rooms across states including Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, Bahia, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goiás. A decade ago, it had 18 hotels and 2,388 rooms in these markets.
Accor draws on experience from mature markets such as Europe, where it has long operated in smaller cities, many linked to agriculture and industry.
“One key lesson is the importance of combining reach with brand consistency. Outside major urban centers, travelers value predictability even more—knowing exactly what to expect regardless of the location,” Dubaere said, noting that demand in these regions is primarily corporate.
The growth of agribusiness hubs has also led Marriott to introduce its City Express brand in Brazil, aimed at secondary and tertiary cities.
“It is one of our most important brands and the one we plan to scale most aggressively in terms of volume,” said Paulo Mancio, Marriott’s vice president of development in Brazil.
The company is currently evaluating projects in cities such as Bebedouro in São Paulo state and Sinop in Mato Grosso.
“City Express was designed with the Brazilian market in mind,” said Renato Carvalho, senior development manager at Marriott International in Brazil.
In the country, the brand will offer rooms ranging from 15 square meters to 20 square meters in properties with up to 140 rooms.
Marriott has signed seven new City Express contracts in Brazil—three with Fábrica de Hotéis and four with Justa & Utg Empreendimentos—adding about 945 rooms to its pipeline.
The three contracts with Fábrica de Hotéis are in the Northeast and add to the seven announced in March 2025 as part of a long-term agreement to develop 30 properties in the region over 15 years.
The deal with Justa & Utg will expand the brand’s footprint in the Southeast, including projects in Holambra (120 rooms), Araras (120 rooms), and Piracicaba (140 rooms)—all in São Paulo—, as well as Passos (140 rooms), in Minas Gerais.
In agribusiness regions, City Express’s strategy has focused on building new properties. Executives noted that conversions are possible but less likely due to the limited existing hotel supply.
Carvalho added that agribusiness has helped drive broader economic diversification in some cities. “Ribeirão Preto was once heavily tied to agribusiness and today has a significant services sector,” he said.
Growth in agribusiness regions is also evident at Atlantica Hospitality International, which has a strong presence in the Central-West, South, and Southeast. The company now operates 48 properties in these regions, totaling 6,631 rooms. In 2016, it had 27 hotels and 3,680 rooms—an increase of about 80% in room supply over a decade.
“These figures are central to Atlantica’s reach strategy, representing 25% of our total portfolio and 27% of our room supply,” said CEO Eduardo Giestas.
Part of the company’s strategy in these markets is to diversify hotel categories. Of its pipeline, 29% is in the luxury and upscale segment, 52% in the midscale segment, and 19% in the economy segment.
“In terms of financial performance, we recorded 17% growth in ADR [average daily rate] and 18% in RevPAR [revenue per available room] year over year in agribusiness regions,” Giestas said.
In less than a decade, Atlantica tripled its presence in the Central-West, a key grain-producing region, especially soybeans, corn, and cotton. In 2016, it operated four hotels in Mato Grosso and Goiás, totaling 613 rooms. Today, it has 15 hotels and 2,144 rooms.
“Including the Federal District, a key connectivity hub, the portfolio expands to 20 properties and 2,834 rooms—an increase of 275% in hotel count and 250% in room supply,” Giestas said.
The group currently has a pipeline of 16 signed hotels in agribusiness regions, scheduled to open between 2027 and 2031, totaling 2,602 rooms and about R$1 billion in investment. These projects account for 29% of our total hotel pipeline and 31% of our room pipeline.
“Currently, 31% of hotels under negotiation are located in these regions, reinforcing our confidence in the sector’s continued growth,” said the CEO.
At Atrio Hotel Management, the country’s third-largest hotel operator, agribusiness regions currently account for about 5% of revenue. The goal is to raise that share to 20% by 2030, CEO Beto Caputo said.
Atrio currently operates 82 hotels and has 15 signed for the next two years, including three in agribusiness regions.
Caputo noted that financial backing from traditional agribusiness families has helped move projects forward. Due to the limited existing hotel supply, conversions are rare, making new construction necessary.
“What we are seeing is that, with capital accumulation in these regions, there is a growing appetite among investors from different families for hotel projects,” he said. These resources, he added, are complemented by support from regional development banks, which help make projects viable at competitive rates despite high interest levels.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
__________________________________
03/23/2026
WORKWEEK REFORM CAN HAVE MIXED RESULTS FOR COMPANIES
Debaters believe the effects would be more negative for labor-intensive sectors and for smaller businesses
The prospect of ending the six-day workweek as discussed in Congress could have different impacts on Brazilian companies. The effects could be more negative for labor-intensive sectors, such as commerce and services in general, but also for smaller businesses, which have less capacity to adjust to a reduction in the maximum working hours, said experts who participated in another debate in the Caminhos do Brasil seminar series, in Rio de Janeiro, on Thursday (19). There is also uncertainty about the ability of companies to absorb cost increases, and how much this will affect employment, inflation, and economic activity.
According to the president of the Employment and Labor Relations Council of the Federation of Commerce of São Paulo (FecomercioSP), José Pastore, commerce would be one of the sectors most affected by the reduction in working hours for two reasons. On the one hand, it is labor-intensive. On the other hand, many establishments operate seven days a week, or even 24 hours a day, such as pharmacies and supermarkets. “The increase in working hours hits the retail sector hard. That’s why we can’t just look at the average. The Brazilian reality is very diverse, and the impacts are very different,” said Pastore.
For him, the new, shorter working hours schedule would require adaptation on the part of companies, which would have four possible adjustments to make. The first would be to pass on the increased payroll cost to the prices of goods and services sold, which may be inevitable, given that many companies operate with narrow profit margins.
The second mechanism would be to lay off employees with higher salaries and fill the vacancies with lower-paid workers, as a way to mitigate the increase in labor costs—which would increase turnover, a problem that typically causes training problems.
The third type of adjustment would be to invest in automation, replacing some employees with machinery. The result for the economy as a whole would be a reduction in job openings. Finally, given the increase in personnel costs, a fourth option would be to review the investment plan, which could lead to a contraction of businesses, slowing down economic activity and, in the worst case, leading to a recession. “There are four possible mechanisms. And the company might implement all four together. All of them are bad for the worker, especially the most vulnerable,” said Pastore.
Paulo Solmucci, president of the Brazilian Association of Bars and Restaurants (Abrasel), cited an estimated 20% increase in labor costs for companies in the sector, due to the introduction of two days off per week and the reduction in the weekly work schedule to 40 hours. This cost increase could not be offset by greater use of technology. The higher costs would then be passed on to the final prices for customers.
“The consumer wants the restaurant open for six days, just as they want the health center, the urban cleaning service. This means increasing the payroll by 20% to maintain service to the consumer, which results in 7% to 8% increases in price,” said Solmucci. “The consumer should ask: Does it fit their budget? Are you aware that you will pay more to have the same thing?”
A study by the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), released in February, estimates that reducing the work week to 40 hours could generate an extra cost of more than R$350 billion per year for commerce and service companies. According to the calculations, passing on part of this impact to consumers would lead to an average price increase of 13%. According to another study, published by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), reducing the work week to 40 hours would increase labor costs by an average of 7.84% for companies. For IPEA researchers, an increase of this size is absorbable, as it is similar to that recorded in years of strong minimum wage adjustments, such as 2001, 2006, 2012, and 2024.
In the view of Congressman Reginaldo Lopes (Workers’ Party), author of one of the proposed amendments to the Constitution on the subject that are being discussed in the Chamber of Deputies, the impacts may be different depending on the sector, but if there is a four-year transition to the proposed reduction in weekly working schedule, the impact can be absorbed: “[It] is possible for medium and large companies. I recognize that, for a very small company, with two or three employees, the new 5×2 schedule may have a greater impact.”
For the economist and professor Naercio Menezes Filho, holder of the Ruth Cardoso Chair at Insper, it is necessary to consider particularities: “There will be specific situations in which it will be difficult for small companies to bear [the increase in costs], if there is no increase in productivity. Therefore, everything has to be done calmly.”
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
__________________________________
03/24/2026
BRAZIL WEIGHS R$15BN PACKAGE FOR SECTORS HIT BY TARIFFS AND WAR
Credit line is part of broader effort to cushion impact on fuel prices and exposed industries
The government is preparing a provisional presidential decree to launch “Brazil Sovereign Plan 2,” and under the scenario now being considered, it is studying a R$15 billion credit line to support sectors affected by new U.S. tariffs and the war involving Iran.
Of that total, about R$10 billion could come from the Annual Budget Law, with another R$5 billion from the Export Guarantee Fund, using resources left over from the first phase of the program. The issue is still under discussion by government teams.
The debate is taking place amid a broader discussion within the government over a package of measures to mitigate the effects of the conflict, especially on fuel prices and the sectors most exposed. One alternative under review is to increase subsidies for diesel producers and importers through a new provisional presidential decree, or MP.
MP No. 1,340/2026 set a subsidy of R$0.32 per liter, with an estimated fiscal impact of R$10 billion for the federal government through extraordinary credit, an expense that falls outside the spending cap but is counted toward the primary balance target. If that option moves forward, the cost could rise through an increase in the subsidy amount via a new MP adjusting the current parameters.
Government officials believe there is enough revenue to fund this package of measures, especially given the increase in tax collection linked to higher Brent crude prices, without the need to declare a public calamity.
Teams have been monitoring developments on a daily basis in a scenario marked by high volatility abroad, amid the conflict in the Middle East, and its effects on the domestic market, in order to calibrate possible measures. Brazil Sovereign Plan 2 may be announced before the broader package or at the same time. The final decision will rest with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The government is also betting on reaching an agreement with state governors. As Valor reported last week, the states have reservations about the federal government’s proposal to cut to zero the state value-added tax on goods and services, or ICMS, on imported diesel and have begun discussing an alternative based on direct subsidies for importers. The issue was discussed on Friday (20) in a meeting between state finance secretaries and National Treasury Secretary Rogério Ceron.
Under that model, each state would grant the subsidy to the importer, with a partial reimbursement later made by the federal government, in a cost-sharing arrangement with half borne by the states and half by the federal government. The states agreed to draft a structured proposal along those lines, while the economic team agreed to formalize a compensation model.
The subsidy amount is still being studied by the states, but talks have included an estimated cost of R$2 billion a month for each side — states and federal government.
Subnational governments also raised the possibility of increasing federal compensation to 70% of the losses, but the Finance Ministry resisted the change, stressing the collaborative nature of the proposal.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
____________________________________
03/24/2026
THE PRESENT AND FUTURE OF THE BRAZIL-CHINA RELATIONSHIP
Valor brings together officials and business leaders in Shanghai to discuss business prospects
The present and future of economic relations between Brazil and China will be in the spotlight from Wednesday (25) to Friday (27) in Shanghai and its metropolitan area. Officials, diplomats, business leaders, investors, academics and analysts from both countries will participate, on the first day of the event, in the “Summit Valor Econômico Brazil-China 2026,” promoted by Valor in association with the Brazilian Center for International Relations (Cebri) and the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries (CPAFFC), to discuss opportunities in bilateral relations. Visits to Chinese companies’ operations will complete the program on the other two days, allowing an exchange of information and experiences on innovation.
Brazil’s largest trading partner for almost two decades, China’s business with Brazil has increased even further in recent years. Numbers from the Secretariat for Foreign Trade (Secex/Mdic) indicate that last year Brazilian shipments to China reached $99.9 billion, up 5.9% compared with 2024. Imports also had a stronger expansion (11.4%), totaling $70.9 billion. And for 2026, economists project a continuation of this trend. A study by the Brazil-China Business Council (CEBC) indicates that the volume of Chinese investments in Brazil in 2024 totaled $77.5 billion, placing the Asian nation as the fifth largest foreign investor in the country.
Participants in the summit’s opening include Marcos Galvão, Brazilian ambassador to China; Marcos Caramuru, international advisor to Cebri and former Brazilian ambassador to China; Shen Xin, vice-president of CPAFFC; Chen Jing, vice-president of the Standing Committee of the Shanghai Municipal People’s Congress; Frederic Kachar, general director of Editora Globo and Sistema Globo de Rádio (SGR); and Maria Fernanda Delmas, editor-in-chief of Valor.
Next, eight panels will address the main economic connections between the two countries: “Brazil and China on the Global Chessboard: Strategies for a World with New Trade Relations,” “Brazil and China in the Global Leadership of the Energy Transition and Critical Minerals,” “Logistics and Infrastructure: Lines Connecting Ports, Rails and Chinese Investment in Brazil,” “Forging the Future: Health, AI and Emerging Sectors in Brazil-China Collaboration,” “Agribusiness – Food Security and the Next Growth Cycle of Brazilian Agriculture with China,” “Mobility of the Future: Chinese Industrial Plans in Brazil,” “Green Corridors: Developing the Low-Carbon Fuel Market in the Brazil-China Aviation and Maritime Transport” and “Paths to a Robust Finance Ecosystem.”
In the first panel, the debaters will be Izabella Teixeira, international advisory board member of Cebri and former minister of the environment; ambassador Marcos Galvão; Fang Li, chief representative of the Beijing Office of the World Resources Institute (WRI); Xu Tianqi, deputy director of the Department of Regional Studies at the Renmin University of China’s Chongyang Institute of Financial Studies; and Briza Bueno, general manager in Brazil of AliExpress.
The discussion on the role of critical minerals in the energy transition will feature Ricardo Lima, CEO of Companhia Brasileira de Metalurgia e Mineração (CBMM); Jorge Arbache, professor of economics at the University of Brasília; Gu Haidong, vice-mayor of Suzhou; Han Zhao, senior investment executive at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB); Marcelo Sampaio, executive director of legal and institutional affairs at Vale Minerals China; and Shelley Wang, head of the Brazil unit of Hexing Electrical.
Logistics and infrastructure issues will be discussed by panelists Leonardo Ribeiro, secretary of rail transport at Brazil’s Ministry of Transportation; Gao Liang, vice-president of the China Overseas Engineering Group; Li Sisheng, executive vice-president of Powerchina International; Ding Songbing, general manager and head of the Strategy and Research Department at Shanghai International Port; and Zhang Jianyu, deputy secretary-general and chief director of Development at the Belt and Road Alliance for Green Development.
The panel on health and artificial intelligence will include Igor Marchesini Ferreira, special advisor to the Ministry of Finance; Shirley Lu Han, specialist at the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Medicines and Health Products (CCCMHPIE); Felipe Daud, director of institutional relations for the Alibaba Group in Latin America; Leticia Frazão Leme, minister counselor at the Brazilian Embassy in Beijing; Chen Weijing, deputy director at the Hangzhou Municipal Commerce Agency; Zhou Yong, CMO of Hangzhou StarSpecies Robotics; and Hui Jingbo, marketing director at Hangzhou Zhizhen Technology.
The panel focused on agribusiness will bring together Pablo Machado, executive vice-president of business in China and strategy at Suzano; Kevin Chen, international dean at the Chinese Academy of Rural Development (CARD); Larry Lin, chief representative at Minerva’s office in China; André Guimarães, executive director at Ipam; Inty Mendoza, chief representative for China at CNA/Senar; and Tian Lei, president of the Tianjin Meat Producers Association.
The discussion on mobility and the automotive industry will include Sidney Levy, president of Invest.Rio; Victor Oliveira de Queiroz, general manager at the ApexBrasil office in Beijing; Priscila Sakalen, secretary of transportation and urban mobility of the State of Rio de Janeiro; Cui Hongbin (August), director of international energy systems’ projects for Latin America at CATL.
The panel on green fuels will feature Sergio Peres, professor at the University of Pernambuco (UPE); Larissa Wachholz, senior fellow at Cebri; Feng An, executive director at the Energy and Transportation Innovation Center (iCET); Shen Wang, CEO of SafPac; Li Zhenglong, vice-director at Zhejiang University; and Xia Shubiao, manager of the R&D center for security technology at China Marine Bunker.
The summit’s closing will bring together, to discuss financing mechanisms, Ricardo Damiani, representative of Banco do Brasil in China; ambassador Marcos Caramuru; Lucas Reis, senior leader of climate finance at BNDES; Li Zhiqing, executive director of the Institute of Green Finance at Fudan University; Wu Changhua, representative of the Global Climate Academy; Liao Shuping, senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute; and Ruiming Song, special climate advisor at Century City Holdings.
The panels will be moderated by Fernanda Delmas; Zínia Baeta, executive editor of Valor; Lucas de Vitta, assistant editor at Valor; Maria Luiza Filgueiras, editor of Pipeline; Marli Olmos, special reporter for Valor; and Marcelo Ninio, correspondent for O Globo in Beijing.
In addition to the debates, which will take place at the Mandarin Oriental hotel, the program includes two days of visits to companies that have become prominent worldwide for the technological innovations introduced in their sectors of activity. At Alibaba, artificial intelligence and cloud environment solutions will be the focus; at JD (Jingdong Group, China’s largest retailer), logistics; at Fourier, robotics; at Envision, energy transition.
The “Summit Valor Econômico Brazil-China 2026” is the third event of its kind promoted by Valor in China since 2024. This edition is sponsored by BYD, the City of Rio de Janeiro through Invest.Rio, Embratur, the Government of the State of Rio de Janeiro, and ApexBrasil, with support from the City of São Paulo and São Paulo Negócios, Suzano, CBMM, Alibaba, the World Resources Institute, the Climate and Society Institute (iCS), CNA Senar, and the National Confederation of Industry (CNI). The panels will be broadcast on Valor’s website and social media. There will be English-language coverage on Valor International. The newspaper will not cover any expenses for public officials participating in the debates.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
____________________________________
03/25/2026
CHINA EYES BRAZIL RAIL AND PORTS, WARNS ON TAXES
Brazilian government says expanding transport infrastructure is a priority and that it is working to improve legal certainty and unlock private investment
China sees major investment opportunities in Brazil’s rail and port infrastructure, but the complexity of the country’s tax system is still viewed as a significant obstacle. Expanding the sector is one of the Brazilian government’s priorities, and officials say they are working to increase legal certainty and unlock private investment.
The issue was discussed during the panel “Logistics and Infrastructure: Connections Linking Ports, Railways and Chinese Investment in Brazil” at the Summit Valor Econômico Brazil-China 2026 on Wednesday (25) in Shanghai. The event is organized by Valor Econômico in association with the Brazilian Center for International Relations (Cebri) and the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries (CPAFFC). The panel was moderated by Valor Executive Editor Zínia Baeta.
“The biggest barrier in Brazil is the legal and tax environment, which is highly fragmented,” said Li Sisheng, executive vice president of Power China International. In his view, that helps explain why some foreign companies have struggled with investments in the country. He noted, however, that the company has $4 billion invested in Brazil and is studying projects in highways, railways, and energy.
Leonardo Ribeiro, rail transport secretary at Brazil’s Transport Ministry, said the government wants to raise railways’ share of the country’s transport matrix from 20% to 35%. According to Ribeiro, Brazil’s Railway Legal Framework now provides laws, regulations, and standardized contracts that ensure legal certainty for investment in the sector. “We also have strategies to provide guarantees so these projects can move forward under a risk-sharing structure in which the government will share with the private sector any extreme situations.”
Ding Songbing, general manager and head of strategy and research at Shanghai International Port, said there is ample room for the development and modernization of Brazilian ports.
“Ships are getting larger, and ports need to adapt,” he said. In his view, climate adaptation as well as automation and digitalization of processes are two other areas with strong potential.
Zhang Jianyu, deputy secretary-general and chief development director of the Belt and Road International Green Development Alliance, said China and Chinese stock exchanges have been tightening environmental requirements for companies, and those rules also apply to their operations abroad. “If a Chinese company does not have good sustainability results in the Brazilian market, for example, it will face difficulties raising capital here in China.”
The “Summit Valor Econômico Brazil-China 2026” is the third event of its kind organized by the newspaper in China since 2024. This edition is sponsored by BYD, the Rio city government through Invest.Rio, Embratur, the Rio de Janeiro state government, and ApexBrasil, with support from the São Paulo city government and São Paulo Negócios, Suzano, CBMM, Alibaba, the World Resources Institute, the Climate and Society Institute (iCS), CNA Senar, and the National Confederation of Industry (CNI).
The newspaper does not cover expenses when public officials invited to take part in the discussions attend the event.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
___________________________________
03/25/2026
COPOM URGES CAUTION WHILE MARKETS PRICE IN MORE RATE CUTS
Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee leaves room to speed up easing, while a pause looks less likely unless war triggers broader market s
The minutes of the Central Bank of Brazil’s latest Monetary Policy Committee, or COPOM, meeting reinforced the market’s view that the country remains in an easing cycle.
By Tuesday (24), the interpretation had gained ground that, even with the war in the Middle East and uncertainty over oil prices, a pause in rate cuts now appears less likely than a possible acceleration in the pace of monetary easing.
The committee sought to sound cautious, saying that its next steps would be determined “over time” amid an uncertain backdrop made even more complex by the war in the Middle East. Even so, it signaled the continuation of a Selic “calibration” cycle after lowering the base rate last week to 14.75% from 15%.
Among market participants, the minutes largely reinforced the message already delivered in the meeting statement. In the section explaining its decision, the committee said that “recent events” would not prevent the materialization of the guidance it had given in January, when it judged that the start of an interest-rate cutting cycle would be appropriate.
COPOM said it had analyzed “the options for the pace of the start of the base-rate calibration cycle” and concluded that a 25-basis-point cut was the most appropriate move at this stage. “The magnitude and duration of the calibration cycle will be determined over time, as new information is incorporated into its analyses,” it said.
In economists’ view, that passage shows an asymmetry in COPOM’s thinking. It would take a worsening of the war, with additional effects on oil prices and the exchange rate, to interrupt the cutting cycle, while any improvement in the external backdrop could allow the pace of cuts to accelerate to 50 basis points with fewer obstacles.
Felipe Sichel, chief economist at Porto Asset, said the minutes brought little new compared with the statement and made clear that COPOM believes rates remain highly restrictive and are having the expected effect on activity.
“The main discussion was about pace and about confirming that we are, in fact, in a rate-cutting cycle. The bar for interrupting that process is currently very high. Barring a disruption in the exchange rate and oil prices, the next moves remain Selic cuts,” he said.
According to BTG Pactual’s team, led by Tiago Berriel, the minutes reinforced a dovish tone by remaining broadly neutral relative to the Central Bank’s earlier communication.
“The minutes are consistent with the view that COPOM left the door open both to accelerate and to maintain the 25-basis-point pace ahead, depending on how the geopolitical backdrop evolves. The bar for interrupting the cycle seems high to us. So if the current scenario holds, our call remains for the cycle to continue with a 25-basis-point cut at the next meeting. A reduction in uncertainty with positive effects on energy prices would lead to an acceleration to a 50-basis-point move,” they said.
War clouds outlook
For Itaú Unibanco, the minutes suggest the Central Bank remains confident in its ability to calibrate the degree of monetary restriction.
COPOM said the magnitude and duration of the cycle will depend on incoming information.
In recent weeks, the war involving Israel, Iran, and the United States has added uncertainty and pushed oil prices higher. Brent crude has traded above $100 a barrel.
“That decision [to cut rates and wait for new information] is consistent with the current scenario, in which the duration and extent of geopolitical conflicts, as well as mixed signals about the pace of economic slowdown and its effects on price levels, make it harder to identify clear trends,” the committee said.
The market was also trying to understand why COPOM projected inflation at 3.3% over its relevant policy horizon, well below what economists had expected.
According to the committee, the oil price is assumed to follow the futures curve for the next six months and then rise 2% a year thereafter. “Given the observed Brent futures curve, this framework translated into a declining path in the second half of the year, after a sharp increase in the short term,” COPOM said.
“In practice, that meant an upward revision to short-term inflation, but with a partial reversal over the relevant horizon, helping keep the projection relatively lower for the third quarter of 2027,” BTG Pactual said.
For Itaú Unibanco’s economics team, led by former Central Bank director Mario Mesquita, the minutes indicate that the authority remains confident in its ability to calibrate the level of monetary restriction despite the global turbulence. “In fact, the minutes suggest that only the options of a 25-basis-point cut or a 50-basis-point cut were on the table,” the bank’s economists wrote.
According to Itaú, COPOM also highlighted that the disinflation process has lost momentum in more recent readings, something that was not in the statement, and that a possible reacceleration in activity in the first quarter “will not imply a major change in its current scenario.” In that sense, the bank said, the minutes are consistent with an acceleration in the pace of Selic cuts in April, to 50 basis points, which would take the rate to 14.25%.
Split signals
J.P. Morgan economists led by Cassiana Fernandez share the view that the next meeting could bring a larger cut. For the bank, the minutes signaled further easing, even as they stressed the uncertainty created by the war and played down the recent improvement in activity data. “It will be important to watch how the Central Bank handles these mixed signals in its estimate of the output gap,” they said.
For J.P. Morgan, the minutes brought little new on inflation. “The Central Bank referred to the inflation process using past-tense verbs, which probably reflects the expected impact of the conflict, already incorporated into the projections, on the IPCA inflation index. The Central Bank highlighted that inflation expectations had been falling before the conflict, but have risen again since then,” the U.S. bank’s economists said in a report.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
_____________________________________