NEWSLETTER
February 2026
02/05/2026
CABO VERDE MINERAÇÃO FINDS NEW RARE EARTHS AREA IN MINAS GERAIS
Company seeks international partners to fund processing complex
Cabo Verde Mineração, a Brazilian company based in Belo Horizonte, has identified a new target area for rare earth extraction. The site, known as Alvo Botelhos, lies on the edge of the Poços de Caldas Alkaline Complex in southern Minas Gerais and has potential resources exceeding 500 million tonnes of ionic clays.
The company is in talks with international groups to finance the construction of an industrial complex to process the rare earth elements.
“The scale of the project, with more than 91,000 hectares across 57 mining rights, along with the results we have so far, point to the potential for a world-class project,” said Túlio Rivadávia Amaral, CEO of Cabo Verde Mineração.
Ionic clay is a type of clay that contains rare earth ions and is used in energy transition technologies, wind power generation, high-efficiency motors, electric vehicle batteries, advanced electronics, and other applications. In the Alvo Botelhos area, tests indicated the presence of high-value magnetic elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, according to Rivadávia.
Exploration at Alvo Botelhos is being conducted alongside drilling at Alvo Caconde 1, located in the same Poços de Caldas complex, where the company initially pursued an iron ore project.
The targets lie within a block of approximately 91,000 hectares covering four municipalities in Minas Gerais—Muzambinho, Cabo Verde, Campestre, and Botelhos—as well as Caconde in São Paulo state. Rivadávia said the mining company holds 57 mineral rights for exploration in the region.
Among the technical results from priority targets are intervals of 16 meters with average grades of 2,245 parts per million of total rare earth oxides (TREO), including readings of 4,302 ppm TREO and 854 ppm magnetic rare earth oxides (MREO).
“Anomalies are distributed across all four quadrants of the surveyed areas, with results reaching as high as 14,000 ppm and significant recurrence in the 3,000-ppm range,” said Oscar Yokoi, a geologist and technical consultant and a member of the Australian Institute of Geoscientists.
SGS Geosol conducted metallurgical leaching tests, which showed TREO recoveries of up to 81.7% and MREO recoveries above 60%, indicating technical and economic feasibility for mining. Samples were analyzed and certified by ALS Brasil and SGS Geosol laboratories.
Rivadávia told Valor that the project began as an iron mining venture in 2020, but during studies a hydrothermal alteration—a volcanic fissure—was identified, suggesting the presence of rare earths. The company then decided to focus on further exploration.
Research began in 2022. The first discovery was at the Caconde target, in the municipality of the same name, and the second was made now. “At Alvo Caconde, we identified a potential of 100 million tonnes of rare earths at 3,200 ppm. That alone could supply a plant for 20 years with output of 5 million tonnes per year. With Botelhos, the expectation is at least 500 million tonnes,” Rivadávia said.
An initial economic assessment at Alvo Botelhos indicated extraction potential of at least 500 million tonnes of rare earths. Drilling began last week.
Rivadávia said he is in talks with groups from the European Union, Canada, the United States and China to raise funding for the project, though the names of the groups remain confidential at this stage.
For the first phase, covering exploration and certification of the areas, Cabo Verde Mineração is investing about $10 million of its own funds.
The company is seeking financing to build the industrial complex, which is expected to require $370 million for a plant with capacity to process 5 million tonnes per year.
The initial plan is to install the plant in Cabo Verde, Minas Gerais, where the company already holds licenses to extract and process iron ore.
In parallel with the rare earth project, Cabo Verde Mineração resumed in December 2025 its iron ore mining project at the Catumbi Mine, located in Cabo Verde and Muzambinho, southern Minas Gerais. The project had been halted for two years while the company focused on rare earth exploration.
“The iron ore reserve is small, close to one million tonnes. We have a license to extract 600,000 tonnes per year. I estimate it will be a project lasting about two and a half years,” Rivadávia said. The company plans to produce lump ore and sinter feed with an average iron content of 66%, aimed at the domestic market.
The rare earth project, however, is expected to take six to seven years to complete the industrial complex and obtain all licenses and certifications needed for production, according to the executive.
Rare earth mining differs from other types of extraction. The company uses ammonium sulfate, which exchanges ions with the clay to separate the rare earth elements. The clay is then returned to the environment enriched with ammonia, a type of fertilizer.
Much of the land involved is currently used for large-scale coffee plantations. “Our intention is to partner with producers. We pay compensation for coffee trees removed during mining. Farmers also receive an exploration royalty equal to 0.5% of CFEM [Brazil’s financial compensation for mineral resource exploitation],” Rivadávia said.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
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02/06/2026
IMPORTS SLUMP 9.8% IN JANUARY AS BRAZIL’S ECONOMY COOLS
Drop in intermediate goods and fuel imports tempers second-best January trade surplus on record
Brazil’s trade balance started 2026 with a $4.3 billion surplus, the second-best January result in the historical series, behind only the peak in 2024. However, both exports and, more sharply, imports fell compared to January 2025.
Government officials and analysts said the steep drop in imports reflects the expected economic slowdown, though the magnitude seen in January is unlikely to persist throughout the year.
Imports fell 9.8% in January, while exports declined 1%. As a result, even with the wider surplus (up from $2.3 billion in January 2025), overall trade volume shrank. Total trade reached $46 billion, down 5.1% from a year earlier, according to data released by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) at the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (Mdic).
Herlon Brandão, director of statistics and trade studies at Secex, noted that the volume of exports in January matched that of January 2025, a record year for shipments. On the import side, he said a slowdown is expected in 2026 due to “likely weaker growth in domestic demand and the broader economy.”
Brandão said import declines are likely to recur this year, though not necessarily to the extent seen in January.
José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), said the depth of the import drop was surprising, driven by a 15% fall in intermediate goods. This category accounts for roughly 60% of Brazil’s total imports. Fuel imports also fell 21.5%, and capital goods slowed, with a modest increase of 1.1%, according to Secex.
Economist Lucas Barbosa of AZ Quest said the data are consistent with a slowdown in domestic demand. “High interest rates have weighed on investment, and industrial output data has been weak, especially in more cyclical sectors,” he said.
According to Brazil’s national statistics agency IBGE, industrial production dropped 1.2% in December from November. From September to December 2025, output declined 1.9%.
A notable exception, Castro said, was consumer goods, whose import value rose 11.9% in January compared to the same month in 2025.
Chinese cars
Secex data show that this increase was largely due to Chinese car imports, which totaled $374.9 million in January, more than ten times the $31.7 million from January 2025. Excluding Chinese automobiles, Brazil’s consumer goods imports rose just 1.5%.
Passenger cars stood out among January imports, totaling $564 million, more than double the $274 million a year earlier. About 65% of those vehicles came from China.
Barbosa of AZ Quest said the trade balance remains resilient and expects another strong year for Brazilian foreign trade, projecting a $75 billion surplus in 2026, up from $68.3 billion in 2025.
“Brazilian exports continue to show strength not just in volume, but also in price,” he said. Beef exports remain strong, with revenue up 42.5% in January from a year earlier. Prices rose 10.8%, amplifying a 28.6% increase in volume.
Gold exports also stood out, reaching $820 million in January, up from $404 million a year earlier. It was Brazil’s ninth most exported product for the month, with prices up 75.8% and volume rising 15.4%.
Soy exports saw a significant increase of 91.7%, supported by a 9.2% gain in prices and a 75.5% surge in volume.
Not all commodities benefited from favorable prices. Oil and iron ore—the country’s top two export products—fell by 7.8% and 8.6%, respectively. Oil declined in price, while iron ore saw drops in both price and volume.
Trade with key partners reflected recent global shifts. Economist André Valério of Inter noted that January continued the trends seen since the implementation of higher U.S. tariffs, with a 25.5% drop in exports to the United States.
Even so, Brazil’s trade deficit with the U.S. was just $670 million in January, helped by a 10.9% fall in imports of American goods, a shift not seen in previous readings.
Exports to China jumped 17.4%, reflecting a gain in market share, especially in Brazilian agribusiness, which has taken advantage of a gap left by U.S. producers amid tensions between the two countries.
“Even after the U.S.–China agreement, in which China pledged to resume soybean purchases from the U.S., there has been no reduction in Chinese appetite for Brazilian soybeans. This suggests Brazil’s market share gains could prove long-lasting,” Valério said.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
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02/06/2026
AUDIT COURT RULING ON REGULATORY AGENCIES RAISES FISCAL CHALLENGES
Technocrats warn it could make it difficult to comply with spending cap, as spending watchdog orders government to justify budget freezes and blocks interference in operating funds
A decision by Brazil’s Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) on Wednesday (4) tightening budget management rules for regulatory agencies was seen by government technicians as a measure that strips the executive branch of tools needed to comply with the fiscal framework, even as the Court itself demands strict adherence to those rules, sources told Valor.
In the assessment of these sources, the Court calls for rigidity while simultaneously reducing fiscal management instruments. Technicians note that the TCU has repeatedly said the fiscal framework must be applied rigorously, that budget freezes should target the midpoint of the fiscal target, and that the government must commit to ambitious fiscal goals. There are also rulings stating that even when a law exempts certain expenditures from the target, this can undermine the intertemporal sustainability of public debt, they said.
According to interlocutors, by removing expenditures from the pool subject to contingency and requiring detailed explanations for why certain requests are excluded from the budget — even when the exclusion is intended to comply with the fiscal framework — the TCU makes compliance more difficult, as occurred in Wednesday’s decision. For these technicians, the fiscal rule itself should be sufficient justification for such decisions.
Members of the executive branch also argue that the TCU’s decision interferes in the drafting of the budget bill, encroaching on responsibilities traditionally assigned to the executive and legislative branches. Brazil’s budget already has a high degree of rigidity, and the measure moves toward further reducing the autonomy of these branches in defining the appropriations to be included each year in the Budget Law, they say.
In preparing the draft annual budget bill (PLOA), all sectoral bodies — including regulatory agencies — submit requests far exceeding what is feasible from a budgetary standpoint. In practice, the TCU’s decision ends up shielding agencies’ demands without proper merit analysis, sources said. As a result, expanding funding for these structures would tend to come at the expense of compressing other public policies, given the constraints imposed by fiscal rules.
As Valor reported, the TCU ruled that the federal government must justify any budget freezes affecting regulatory agencies and must not interfere with resources earmarked for operating expenses and oversight. The Court also set a 180-day deadline for the government to present a plan to establish the agencies’ financial autonomy.
For congressional technicians, the decision could create problems this year if there were an obligation to fully allocate the resources requested by the agencies. For now, however, it is sufficient to demonstrate that the amounts provided are adequate. Even so, it will be necessary to monitor how the measure affects the drafting of the 2027 budget, a source said.
Under the ruling, the Federal Budget Secretariat (SOF) and the Budget Execution Board (JEO) must, until the action plan is presented, demonstrate that the appropriations included in the annual budget bill are sufficient to cover agencies’ operating and oversight expenses whenever the amounts are below those requested by the bodies.
The determinations were issued as part of an operational audit aimed at assessing the adequacy of organizational structure, management, and results at the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel), the National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), and the National Mining Agency (ANM).
Although the process focused on only four regulatory agencies, the determinations will apply to the budgets of the other seven agencies operating in Brazil. The Court also ordered the SOF and the JEO to justify any bimonthly freezes in agencies’ budgets and determined that funding for operating expenses and oversight be preserved.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
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02/09/2026
INVESTMENT BANKING REVENUE HITS FIVE-YEAR LOW IN BRAZIL
Higher rates and volatility dragged revenue down 12% in 2025, but banks expect a rebound with rate cuts and IPO pipeline in 2026
Amid market volatility and weak equity activity, investment banking revenue in Brazil dropped again in 2025, falling to its lowest level in at least five years, according to data compiled for Valor by global consultancy Dealogic. Still, expectations for 2026 are more upbeat, as interest rate cuts are expected to revive activity and reopen the equity offering window.
Total investment banking revenue reached $651 million in 2025, a 12% decline from the previous year and less than half the record $1.5 billion booked in 2021.
Dealogic’s data covers mergers and acquisitions, debt, equity, and syndicated loan activity. However, investment bankers caution that the consultancy—widely used in industry rankings—does not capture all transactions. Cross-border deal fees, for example, may be booked in bank subsidiaries outside Brazil.
M&A deals generated $248 million in revenue last year, while debt transactions accounted for $325 million. Equity deals brought in $71 million, and syndicated loans added $8 million.
2026 outlook
Looking ahead, bankers are more optimistic about 2026, helped by renewed foreign capital inflows. Business owners have shown more willingness to engage, and many companies are expected to raise capital for investment.
In contrast, 2025 was marked by more structured transactions, particularly in the equity space, as highly leveraged companies sought to rebalance their finances. These deals replaced more traditional follow-on offerings.
Examples include Cosan’s share offering and Azul’s debt-to-equity conversion. Equity revenue data also includes block trades, which reached record levels last year.
With the expected start of the rate-cutting cycle, sentiment has shifted. André Moor, head of investment banking at Bradesco BBI, described 2025 as a “lean” year for capital markets in Brazil, dominated by structured deals.
He expects a more active 2026, especially in the first quarter, with a rebound in equity offerings and even initial public offerings, which have been absent from the B3 exchange for four years.
“The mindset now is to take advantage of favorable stock market conditions and fuel up for the second half of the year,” he said.
Resilient bond market
Cristiano Guimarães, head of investment banking at Itaú BBA, said 2025 turned out better than expected, thanks to a still-strong fixed-income market following a record year in 2024. “Issuance levels in the local market remained quite high,” he said. For 2026, he believes that even with the volatility of an election year, lower interest rates will help stimulate markets.
“The positive angle is that the rate-cutting cycle will likely begin. By nature, that should foster overall market development, make investments easier, and restore some business confidence. That, of course, drives both debt and equity activity,” he said.
Even with improving conditions, election years typically bring volatility, which could prompt companies to rush deals into the first half of the year.
IPO pipeline
Among IPO-ready candidates are sanitation companies such as BRK and Aegea. Other deals are heading to the U.S., where PicPay has already completed its offering to strong demand in New York, a path that Agibank is also expected to follow.
Leonardo Cabral, head of investment banking at Santander Brasil, said 2026 has started on a more optimistic note, driven by the return of equity deals and the anticipation of lower interest rates.
“There’s strong demand for Brazilian assets from a range of geographies,” he said, noting that Santander will also benefit from fees booked in 2026 from deals closed at the end of 2025.
Anderson Brito, head of investment banking at UBS BB, noted that recent years were nowhere near the levels seen during the pandemic, when liquidity was abundant and rates were at rock bottom.
But in 2026, he sees improvements across all business lines and believes risk appetite will increase after the elections. “The election removes a major uncertainty and reopens the market,” he said.
Alessandro Farkuh, head of M&A at BTG Pactual, said Brazil benefited in the second half of 2025 from a reallocation of foreign capital. BTG is entering the new year with a “robust pipeline,” he said.
On the equity side, partner Fabio Nazari said companies are pursuing IPOs both domestically and abroad. “It’s all happening in the wake of rate cuts here and overseas,” he said. “The willingness to take on risk is much higher.”
At Bank of America, Bruno Saraiva, co-head of investment banking in Brazil, said the bank is taking a more constructive view, particularly on the outlook for equity offerings both in Brazil and the U.S., especially from technology companies.
His counterpart Hans Lin added that 2026 will be a shorter year in terms of deal activity because of the elections. As a result, equity placements are expected to continue primarily via block trades, which hit a record in 2025.
At Citi in Brazil, investment banking head Antonio Coutinho said the environment turned more positive in early 2026 thanks to foreign capital flows. “Infrastructure transactions will keep coming,” he said.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com/
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02/13/2026
JUSTICE EXITS MASTER CASE AFTER LINK TO OWNER EMERGES
Police cite Dias Toffoli in probe tied to Daniel Vorcaro, founder of failed bank; Supreme Court reassigns inquiry to Justice André Mendonça
After weeks of intense pressure, Supreme Court Justice Dias Toffoli stepped down on Thursday (12) from overseeing the criminal investigations involving Banco Master.
The decision came after a meeting of all 11 justices, called by Chief Justice Edson Fachin, who had opened a proceeding questioning Toffoli’s impartiality following the discovery of references to him in the phone of Daniel Vorcaro, the bank’s owner, by the Federal Police.
The matter had already been submitted to the Office of the Attorney General (PGR).
Toffoli’s departure was announced in a statement released after the meeting. The investigations into Banco Master and Vorcaro will now be handled by Justice André Mendonça, chosen through a random draw.
During the meeting, Fachin shared the findings of a report by Federal Police Director Andrei Rodrigues, which included references to Toffoli found in Vorcaro’s phone.
The meeting also addressed Toffoli’s defense. Earlier in the day, he acknowledged being a partner in Maridt, a company that sold part of its stake in the Tayayá resort to a fund connected to Fabiano Zettel, Vorcaro’s brother-in-law.
Under pressure
Valor learned that during the meeting Toffoli argued he should remain in charge of the investigation but decided to step aside after pressure from colleagues. The overall atmosphere was tense. The justice also defended himself over the issues raised in the Federal Police report. Afterward, fellow justices began presenting arguments against his continued oversight.
Once the justices supported replacing the rapporteur as a way to contain criticism of the Court, Toffoli agreed to relinquish control of the investigation. After hearing his colleagues, he no longer “dug in” to remain in charge of the proceedings.
“At the request of Justice Dias Toffoli, taking into account his prerogative to submit matters to the court’s president to ensure the proper handling of proceedings, and in view of the high institutional interests at stake, the Supreme Court presidency, after hearing all justices, accepts his communication to transfer the cases under his rapporteurship so they may be freely reassigned,” said the statement signed by all ten other justices, including Toffoli himself.
The justices unanimously agreed there were no grounds to proceed with the motion questioning Toffoli’s impartiality. The statement also said the court recognized “the full validity of the actions” taken by Toffoli in the case and expressed their “personal support” for him.
Before stepping away from the case, Toffoli took a measure investigators described as “doubling down”: on Thursday, he ordered the Federal Police to submit to the Supreme Court the full contents extracted from the phones and computers of those under investigation in the Banco Master probe, including Daniel Vorcaro.
The order called for the delivery of forensic reports on “the material in question, including telematic, digital, and telephone data.” It also included other “evidentiary elements” that had already been documented but not yet sent to the inquiry overseen by Toffoli.
The meeting was announced at the start of Thursday’s plenary session. The session ended early, and the meeting began around 4:30 p.m., paused at 7 p.m., and resumed at 8 p.m. The statement was released shortly after.
On Monday (9), Federal Police Director Andrei Rodrigues personally delivered to Fachin the report citing Toffoli. The material was based on data extracted from phones belonging to individuals under investigation in the Master case, including Vorcaro. According to a report by journalist Malu Gaspar in O Globo, the document includes phone calls between the two, an invitation to Toffoli’s birthday party, and conversations with others about payments related to the Tayayá resort.
The police did not formally request the justice’s recusal. As they are not a party to the case, they cannot do so. However, the information raised doubts about Toffoli’s continued role as rapporteur, given potential conflicts of interest and questions about impartiality.
Toffoli’s defense
Since the revelations surfaced, Toffoli issued two statements in his defense. The first, sent to reporters on Wednesday night (11), claimed the police report was based on “speculation.” In the second, issued Thursday morning, he admitted being a shareholder in Maridt, the family company that sold part of its stake in the Tayayá resort to a fund linked to Vorcaro’s brother-in-law, Fabiano Zettel. The justice denied receiving any money directly from Vorcaro or Zettel.
“Justice Dias Toffoli is part of Maridt’s shareholder structure. The company is managed by the justice’s relatives. Under the Organic Law of the Judiciary, Article 36 of Complementary Law 35/1979, a judge may be a shareholder in a company and receive dividends, but is prohibited from performing managerial duties,” said the second statement released by Toffoli’s office.
He also acknowledged that Maridt’s stake in Tayayá was sold to Zettel’s Arllen Fund on September 27, 2021. The remaining shares were sold to PHD Holding on February 21, 2025. Toffoli said in the statement he was not familiar with Arllen’s fund manager.
“The justice does not know the manager of the Arllen Fund and has never had any friendship, let alone a close friendship, with the defendant Daniel Vorcaro. Finally, the justice clarifies that he has never received any money from Daniel Vorcaro or his brother-in-law Fabiano Zettel,” the statement read.
Toffoli also said the entire transaction was “properly declared to the Federal Revenue Service” and that “all sales were made at market value.” As for the Master case, he said he only took over as rapporteur in November 2025. “By then, Maridt had long ceased to be part of the Tayayá Ribeirão Claro group,” he added.
Internal crisis
Justices said the recent revelations involving Toffoli had created a new kind of crisis within the Supreme Court.
Court members and close observers noted that the tribunal is accustomed to external pressure—such as criticism of rulings and accusations of interference in other branches—but Toffoli’s connection to the Tayayá resort and the mentions found on Vorcaro’s phone triggered an internal crisis, casting doubt on one justice’s impartiality.
Had Toffoli not stepped aside, one alternative under consideration was sending the case to a lower court. That’s because a formal ruling of bias could lead to the annulment of the justice’s decisions, delaying the conclusion of the investigation into the fraudulent credit scheme at Banco Master. The Supreme Court’s internal rules state that if bias is alleged or declared, all acts performed by the justice in question are rendered null.
In a private conversation with Valor, one justice said that while Toffoli enjoys the goodwill of his peers, “there are limits.” “He has the sympathy of the majority, but not for just anything,” the source said.
One source described the moment as “a unique situation,” saying they could not recall a similar episode involving the head of the Federal Police personally delivering evidence of a possible conflict of interest between a justice and a person under investigation.
The rise of pro-impeachment rhetoric has unsettled members of the Court. But one of them said it was too early to tell whether the situation had reached that level of severity.
Since taking over the Banco Master inquiries, Toffoli had insisted he would not step aside, even as scrutiny over his actions grew. Initially, he maintained that stance even after reports surfaced that his relatives had ties to the funds mentioned in the investigation.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
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02/13/2026
BRAZIL’S MAJOR BANKS RAISE PROVISIONS, ADOPT CAUTIOUS TONE FOR 2026
Combined profit of Itaú, Bradesco, Santander and Banco do Brasil fell 4.4% to R$107.8bn, dragged down by BB’s agriculture losses
Brazil’s largest banks are entering 2026 with a more cautious stance after a slower 2025, marked by a modest credit expansion, higher loan-loss provisions, partly due to regulatory changes, and relatively stable default levels. With interest rates still high and presidential elections on the horizon, financial institutions see challenges ahead.
Itaú Unibanco, Bradesco, Santander, and state-controlled Banco do Brasil (BB) ended last year with a combined profit of R$107.8 billion, down 4.4% from 2024. However, the consolidated figure masks stark differences.
BB was the main drag on performance, with its profit plummeting 45.5% due to losses in agribusiness. If only private-sector banks are considered, the combined profit would have grown 16.4%.
Gross financial margin for the four institutions rose 6.4% to R$362.6 billion. But provisions for bad loans surged 22.7% to R$170.2 billion, driven by two main factors. There was a deterioration in asset quality, requiring banks to beef up their loss reserves.
In addition, a regulatory change played a role. Under Resolution 4,966, the Central Bank mandated a new accounting model based on expected credit losses, forcing banks to increase their cushions as they anticipate credit deterioration.
BB’s defaults
Last year, delinquency rates among the country’s largest banks remained mostly stable, except at BB. While the market average rose from 3% at the end of 2024 to 4.1% in late 2025, the large banks saw little change.
Itaú’s rate fell 0.1 percentage point, Bradesco’s rose 0.1 point, and Santander’s increased 0.5 point. BB stood out, with its delinquency rate jumping 2 points to 5.17%. The bank posted deterioration across all segments, but was hit especially hard by agribusiness losses and a specific corporate case.
The four publicly listed banks also slowed credit growth. Their combined loan portfolio reached R$4.58 trillion in 2025, a 5.8% increase, well below the national financial system’s average growth of 10.2%.
For 2026, a similar scenario is expected, with major banks maintaining a more conservative approach than the broader market. This trend is reflected both in their forecasts and in statements from executives.
Election-year caution
The Central Bank projects 8.6% credit growth in 2026. Itaú’s guidance ranges from 5.5% to 9.5% (7.5% at the midpoint); Bradesco expects between 8.5% and 10.5% (9.5% midpoint); BB forecasts just 0.5% to 4.5% (2.5% midpoint). Santander does not provide public guidance but has adopted a more cautious tone than its peers.
Itaú expects higher profit and sustained strong return on equity in 2026. Asked whether the bank’s guidance was too conservative, CEO Milton Maluhy Filho said it was not defensive, but rather “realistic,” especially in an election year, which tends to bring heightened uncertainty. “It wouldn’t make sense to aggressively expand credit and later have to pull back. But if we see opportunities and can deliver more, we will,” he said.
Santander CEO Mario Leão said the key is to grow in the segments the bank has prioritized, even if it means losing share in others. “I chose to grow in high-income clients and small and midsize companies. In those two segments, I need to grow disproportionately,” he noted.
Santander’s CFO, Gustavo Alejo, said the bank expects more pressure on provisions in portfolios like agribusiness and small businesses. These sectors are more sensitive to the base interest rate, which is expected to remain high even as the rate-cutting cycle begins.
“Given that we’re still in a high-Selic [base rate] environment, it’s only natural to see pressure,” Alejo said. “Obviously we’re working to reduce that pressure, and we’re preparing for it.”
Bradesco sees traction; BB to focus on retail
Recovering and executing its strategic plan, Bradesco appears more “geared up,” as CEO Marcelo Noronha put it. “We’re seeing commercial traction, important credit growth, and potential for market share gains in specific segments.”
MNoronha is optimistic about the macroeconomic outlook. With inflation under control, he said, the Selic rate could fall to 12% by year-end. “That’s our horizon. I see Brazil moving forward, unemployment is under control, and we’re still optimistic, not pessimistic.”
At Banco do Brasil, the plan is to expand its retail portfolio, which has better risk-adjusted returns, while corporate and agribusiness lending is expected to remain flat. Overall credit growth at BB will be less than a third of the market average.
BB CEO Tarciana Medeiros said Thursday (12) that 2025 was the most challenging year in her 26-year career at the bank, largely due to agribusiness losses stemming from Resolution 4,966 and a wave of bankruptcy filings.
Still, she noted that even with nearly R$80 billion in provisions, BB posted a profit of R$20.7 billion and delivered on its guidance, which was revised twice during the year.
“[The year] 2026 will also be challenging,” Medeiros said. “But it will be a challenge we’ve already learned how to manage.”
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
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02/18/2026
SUPREME COURT FLAGS ILLEGAL ACCESS TO JUSTICES’ TAX DATA
Information on relatives was also allegedly accessed and leaked by the Federal Revenue staff
Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) said in a statement released Tuesday (17) that confidential tax data of its justices and their relatives were improperly accessed by employees of the Federal Revenue, the country’s tax authority, and later leaked to third parties.
Four suspects were targeted in a search-and-seizure operation carried out by the Federal Police at the order of Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The move split the court because it stems from the so-called “fake news” inquiry and ultimately involves all sitting justices.
The STF did not identify the owners of the leaked data. Valor learned, however, that the illegally collected information allegedly concerned lawyer Viviane Barci, Justice Moraes’s wife, whose professional activities drew attention due to her law firm’s contract with Master bank, and a son of another justice.
Search warrants were executed in the states of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Bahia. Investigators and the Federal Revenue are still examining the motive, including whether it was political or part of a data-selling scheme.
Search operation
Those targeted by the Federal Police were Luiz Antônio Martins Nunes, a technician at the Federal Data Processing Service (Serpro) in Rio de Janeiro who was seconded to the Federal Revenue; Ricardo Mansano de Moraes, a tax auditor at the Federal Revenue since 2007; Ruth Machado dos Santos, a Social Security technician since 1994 who works at the Federal Revenue office in Guarujá, on the coast of São Paulo; and Luciano Pery dos Santos, also a Social Security technician, working at a Federal Revenue office in Salvador.
Justice Moraes ordered precautionary measures against the employees. These include lifting their bank, tax and telecommunications secrecy; house arrest at night and on weekends with electronic ankle monitoring; a ban on leaving the judicial district where they live; immediate suspension from public duties, including prohibition from entering Federal Revenue and Serpro premises and accessing systems; among others.
Valor was unable to reach the defense lawyers for the four employees before publication.
“Various and multiple unlawful accesses to the Brazilian Federal Revenue system were identified, followed by the subsequent leaking of confidential information. Initial investigations demonstrate, as shown in a report sent by the Federal Revenue to the STF, the existence of a ‘block of accesses whose analysis, by the responsible departments, identified no functional justification [for the accesses],’” the Supreme Court said.
Revenue audit
The information on the leaks was sent to Moraes by the Federal Revenue after he ordered the agency to track in its systems whether justices, their relatives and the attorney general, Paulo Gonet, had their data accessed improperly.
The Federal Revenue checked whether information had been accessed on the ten Supreme Court justices and on relatives such as parents, children, siblings and spouses. The audit covered about 100 individuals who may have had their information accessed unlawfully, Folha de S.Paulo reported.
Tuesday’s searches followed a request from the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR). The agency said the conduct of the Federal Revenue employees may constitute the crime of breach of official secrecy. It added that other offenses may have been committed, since the tax information was allegedly used to create “artificial suspicions” against STF members.
“The case goes beyond individual breach of tax secrecy, since the fragmented and selective exploitation of confidential information of public authorities, disclosed without context and without judicial oversight, has been instrumentalized to produce artificial suspicions that are difficult to dispel,” the PGR said in requesting the searches.
The Federal Revenue issued two statements on the investigation. In the first, it said it does not “tolerate misconduct,” especially involving tax secrecy, and noted it had already been investigating irregular access to data of justices and their relatives.
“On January 12 this year, the STF requested that the Federal Revenue conduct an audit of its systems to identify irregularities in access to data of the Court’s justices, relatives and others over the past three years. The work was included in a procedure that had already been opened the previous day by the Federal Revenue’s Internal Affairs Office based on reports published in the press,” one statement said.
In a second note, the Federal Revenue clarified that no irregular access was identified to the confidential tax data of Attorney General Paulo Gonet and his relatives. “The Federal Revenue was asked to provide access data for all STF justices, the attorney general and their relatives. In other words, an audit of all was requested, but this does not mean that there was access to the tax data of all,” it said.
Internal backlash
The tracking of potential unlawful breaches of secrecy comes amid the crisis triggered by the liquidation of Banco Master and investigations into an alleged multibillion-real fraud scheme at the bank, which are being handled by the Supreme Court.
During the probe, O Globo reported that Master hired the law firm of lawyer Viviane Barci, Justice Moraes’s wife, for monthly payments of R$3.6 million. The total amount, about R$130 million, was allegedly not paid due to the bank’s liquidation.
Behind the scenes, amid criticism in Congress that the case should not be used to overshadow the crisis facing the STF, members of the court disagreed over Moraes’s order. Some said the decision lacks legal basis. “This is the same as breaching secrecy in one’s own cause and rummaging through the lives of countless people,” one justice said.
Another justice said the order makes “no legal sense.” In his view, the decision is broad and covers all ten members of the current composition of the court. “If that is the case, who would be competent [to issue the order]? The Pope?” he quipped.
A third justice said Moraes is merely seeking to determine whether there were unlawful breaches of secrecy against justices, which is not the same as accessing colleagues’ tax data.
He noted, however, that the timing is far from ideal, as the STF has been in the headlines weekly and has not yet recovered from an internal crisis sparked by the possible recording of a secret meeting that discussed the rapporteurship of the Master case.
Contacted, Justice Moraes did not comment on the remarks before publication.
In a statement, the National Association of Federal Tax Auditors of the Brazilian Federal Revenue (Unafisco) expressed “concern” over the precautionary measures imposed on the suspects, arguing that the investigation remains at an early stage.
“The entity defends that any irregularities be rigorously investigated, but with observance of due process of law, the presumption of innocence and proportionality. Extreme precautionary sanctions require robust grounds and consistent evidentiary support, especially when there is not yet a definitive technical conclusion,” it said.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
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02/20/2026
RARE EARTH PROJECTS IN BRAZIL TOTAL R$13.2BN IN INVESTMENTS
Country draws global attention amid race for strategic minerals used in energy transition, technology and defense
Seven rare earth mining projects in the pre-operational stage represent up to R$13.2 billion in planned investments in Brazil. The country has entered the radar of foreign governments as well as domestic and international investors amid the global race for the group of materials, considered strategic for areas such as the energy transition, technology and defense.
Interest in Brazil’s rare earth reserves, located mainly in the states of Minas Gerais, Goiás, Amazonas, Bahia and Sergipe, stems from the fact that they are the largest outside China. They could help reduce Western dependence on Chinese rare earths, as China accounts for 69% of global production and 91% of refining.
The group comprises 17 metals, including lanthanum, samarium, terbium and lutetium. While abundant worldwide, they involve costly and complex extraction and refining processes.
Regulatory uncertainty
Among the pre-operational initiatives are projects led by mining companies listed on foreign exchanges as well as privately held and publicly traded Brazilian companies, most of them concentrated in Minas Gerais.
Specialists interviewed by Valor said, however, that turning projected investments into actual capital inflows will depend on regulatory and financial advances.
Projects by Viridis Mining & Minerals and Meteoric Resources, both listed on the Sydney Stock Exchange in Australia, Aclara Resources, listed in Toronto, Canada, and Atlas Critical Minerals, listed on the Nasdaq in the U.S., are expected to begin operations in 2028.
“Following the schedule, we estimate reaching the final investment decision in the second half of this year,” said Klaus Petersen, Viridis’s country manager in Brazil.
Meteoric plans to begin construction in the third quarter, if it secures an installation license. “Construction will take 24 months, which could be reduced to 18,” said Marcelo Carvalho, the company’s chief executive.
Aclara noted that the multiplicity of agencies involved in environmental licensing and the lack of domestic customers to purchase future mine output pose challenges to securing financing. “Establishing offtake contracts [advance purchase agreements for production] is a key factor for obtaining financing,” said José Augusto Palma, the miner’s executive vice president.
Marc Fogassa, CEO of Atlas, said the company’s areas are currently “in the stage of geological studies, laboratory testing and definition of processing routes.”
Projects by St. George Mining, also listed in Sydney, and privately held Brazilian company Terra Brasil are expected to begin operations in 2029.
“Studies are under way to confirm the project’s technical and economic potential,” said St. George executive chairman, John Prineas. The project also foresees additional investments in niobium.
Both initiatives are located in Araxá, a city in Minas Gerais where Companhia Brasileira de Metalurgia e Mineração (CBMM), controlled by the Moreira Salles family, operates.
Terra Brasil’s initiative also targets investments in fertilizers. “We have adopted a differentiated strategy, with an integrated project combining rare earths with phosphate and potash fertilizers,” said Eduardo Duarte, the company’s chief executive.
Brazilian Critical Minerals (BCM) did not disclose when it expects to start operations, but chief executive Andrew Reid said the main steps to be completed this year include obtaining “all necessary licenses.”
The investment volume in the segment is likely to be higher, since the projects compiled by Valor represent only part of those in the pre-operational stage, and others have yet to disclose public estimates of capital expenditures.
“This investment forecast is an excellent indication that the world is looking at the country,” said Patricia Seoane, mining and steel leader at PwC Brasil. She noted, however, that uncertainty over the regulatory framework for rare earths and other critical minerals, a policy Brazil still lacks, creates insecurity for investors, banks and lenders.
Financing gap
GIN Capital estimates that at most 35% of the R$13 billion projected will actually be raised and disbursed by 2028. “The most technically advanced projects, with more robust feasibility studies and some engagement with potential offtakers, have a 60% to 70% probability of reaching a final investment decision,” said Roberta Dalla, co-founder and partner at the platform. The others face lower odds absent structural changes in the business environment.
A bill under consideration in the Lower House, under the rapporteurship of lawmaker Arnaldo Jardim, of the Citizenship Party, is seen as the most advanced proposal to establish a National Policy for Critical and Strategic Minerals and boost the segment.
Companies across the critical minerals chain are advocating for the inclusion of a guarantee fund in the framework to unlock capital flows. The Critical Minerals Association (AMC) said the proposal would bring together development banks and the private sector to dilute financing risks and allow junior mining companies, which lead many initiatives and lack active production to offer as collateral, to access funding under more competitive terms.
“We need another guarantee mechanism so that the entire package of projects can be covered,” said Marisa Cesar, chair of the association’s board.
Lawmaker Arnaldo Jardim confirmed to Valor that the draft under his report includes such an instrument.
The Brazilian Mining Institute (Ibram) said the high risk of mineral exploration, where roughly two out of every 100 surveyed areas become viable projects, limits access to credit. As a result, said Julio Nery, the institute’s mining affairs director, junior companies seek capital on exchanges in countries such as Australia and Canada.
“They are not necessarily Australian or Canadian projects. They may even be Brazilian, but they seek risk capital abroad because there are financial incentives there that do not exist here.”
The AMC also pointed to “legal uncertainty” generated by interventions from bodies such as the Federal Prosecutor’s Office (MPF) in environmental licensing. AMC’s Cesar cited cases involving Viridis and Meteoric, which faced legal action before receiving preliminary licenses last year. “This affects the attraction of more investors.”
The MPF said that, “as a precaution,” potential environmental risks should be assessed through complementary studies.
Shigueo Watanabe Junior, a researcher at the ClimaInfo Institute, said the agency acts because environmental protection tools and safeguards for communities affected by projects have failed in Brazil. “In an ideal world, the Public Prosecutor’s Office would not need to intervene, because licensing and monitoring mechanisms would be sufficient.”
The lack of structured long-term offtake contracts, still faced by some projects, and the technical complexity of refining the elements were also cited by GIN as obstacles.
“Without long-term offtake agreements with end manufacturers or intermediaries, these projects cannot secure traditional project finance,” GIN’s Dalla said, referring to a model in which credit is granted primarily based on future cash-flow generation capacity.
Global race
In the global race to reduce dependence on China, she said Brazil could capture 15% to 20% of the global rare earth market, projected at up to $12 billion annually by 2030, but “the window is 18 to 24 months.”
If Brazil misses the opportunity, the risk is that refining infrastructure and offtake agreements will already have been established in other countries. “And it will be exponentially more difficult and more expensive to attract large-scale capital,” she said.
Currently, the only commercially operating mine in the country is Serra Verde Mineração in Goiás, which announced it secured $565 million in financing from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the U.S. development bank.
The search for international investors, including development institutions and public and private banks, is a strategy already used by pre-operational mining companies.
In September 2025, Aclara announced it had received a commitment of up to $5 million from the DFC to fund a feasibility study. Viridis and Meteoric have also announced letters of support and interest in financing from export credit agencies in countries including Australia, Canada, France and the United States.
Domestically, Brazil also has initiatives aimed at unlocking investments in critical minerals. The federal government has been working to attract international investors to the segment.
In November, the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil) held meetings in the European Union, and in March this year expects at least five mining companies to receive announcements of investments linked to the bloc.
“The work initiated by the government needs to quickly translate into operational instruments that allow Brazilian projects to compete on equal terms,” Dalla said.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
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02/20/2026
GOIÁS ADVANCES CRITICAL MINERALS DEAL WITH U.S.
State expects to sign agreement by March after governor’s trip to Washington
The state government of Goiás expects to sign a critical minerals agreement with the United States by March, after advancing discussions this month during Governor Ronaldo Caiado’s visit to Washington. The deal would precede any potential negotiations between Brazil’s federal government and the U.S. administration on the issue, which have yet to take place.
According to Adriano da Rocha Lima, Goiás’ chief of staff, who accompanied Caiado to the U.S., the state also plans to sign a similar agreement with Japan. “Both agreements should be signed by the first week of March at the latest,” he said.
The governor’s agenda included a meeting with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the American counterpart to the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), which approved $565 million (R$2.9 billion) in financing for Mineração Serra Verde. The company operates Brazil’s only commercially active rare earth mine, located in Goiás.
The most significant meeting, Rocha Lima said, was with Christopher Landau, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State and a close aide to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. “In that meeting, we broadly discussed the partnership between Goiás and the U.S., and they expressed full support for cooperation,” he said.
On the U.S. side, the agreement is expected to involve the Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs at the State Department. On the Brazilian side, it would include the Goiás State Authority for Critical Minerals (Amic-GO). The deal would serve as a framework for more specific future agreements and would provide for technological and commercial cooperation, as well as financial contributions, though no initial amount has been specified.
“According to them, without this agreement they face difficulties in making financial contributions, allocating resources, and forming partnerships with companies and research centers,” Rocha Lima said.
Goiás has moved ahead at the state level by approving legislation in 2025 establishing Amic-GO, which will coordinate state policy on critical minerals. At the federal level, Brazil does not yet have comparable legislation.
Based on conversations in Washington, the Goiás government said it sensed a lack of urgency on the part of Brazil’s federal administration. “I recall a comment along the lines of, ‘We are trying to negotiate with the Brazilian government, but we haven’t received a response,’” Rocha Lima said, adding that this may have prompted the U.S. to accelerate talks directly with the state.
Brazil’s Mines and Energy Ministry said in a statement that it “remains open to dialogue and cooperation with international initiatives that contribute to a more resilient, transparent, and sustainable global critical minerals supply chain.” The ministry added that Brazil’s approach is guided, among other principles, by integration into global value chains “in dialogue with different partners, including the U.S., the European Union, China, and other strategic actors.”
A source familiar with the sector expressed concern about a lack of alignment between state and federal authorities, warning that the federal government could eventually seek to annul or invalidate the state-level agreement with the U.S. on constitutional grounds.
The Brazilian Mining Institute (Ibram) views the potential agreement positively. According to Julio Nery, the institute’s mining affairs director, the initiative should not hinder possible negotiations between Brazil and the U.S. at the federal level. “The Brazilian government can also sign a similar agreement,” he said. “It is very positive to see different levels of government engaged in this process.”
Rocha Lima said Goiás made clear its intention to move up the value chain in critical minerals. “We do not want to simply extract the mineral and ship it abroad in raw form. They understood and agreed,” he said.
Under the planned agreement with Japan—expected to involve Amic-GO and the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (Jogmec)—the parties would carry out detailed geological mapping of Goiás’ subsoil. “This mapping should cost around R$300 million, and Japan is willing to finance it,” Rocha Lima said.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
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02/25/2026
SUPREME COURT, CONGRESS DEBATE TRANSITION RULE ON PERKS
Court likely to uphold Justice Dino ruling suspending benefits, with deadline adjustments after Chief Justice Fachin meets with congressional leaders
The full bench of Brazil’s Supreme Court is set to review on Wednesday (25) a decision by Justice Flávio Dino limiting the payment of indemnity allowances not expressly provided for by law, commonly referred to as “penduricalhos,” or add-on benefits.
The case comes a day after Chief Justice Edson Fachin met with Chamber of Deputies Speaker Hugo Motta (Republicans of Paraíba) and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (Brazil Union of Amapá) to discuss a transition rule for the add-ons.
At the meeting, it was agreed that a proposal for a “transition rule” on the “limits of the constitutional salary cap” would be drafted “in the coming days.” Also in attendance were Dino and Justices Gilmar Mendes and Alexandre de Moraes, Deputy Prosecutor-General Hindenburgo Chateaubriand, and the president of the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU), Vital do Rêgo.
Dino’s decision gives the three branches of government 60 days to reassess all remuneration payments and suspend those not expressly provided for in federal, state or municipal rules. A transition rule is expected to be adopted because there would not be sufficient time to comply with the order within two months.
The justice issued the ruling on February 5. The injunction was submitted to the Supreme Court’s full bench, which will now decide whether to uphold the order issued earlier this month. Valor has learned that the Court is likely to uphold the measure. However, adjustments are expected to the deadlines set by Dino, taking into account the agreement reached at Monday’s (23) meeting regarding the “transition rule.”
Supreme Court justices admit behind the scenes that the matter is sensitive and overturning a colleague’s decision could further intensify criticism of the Court, which has grown amid developments in investigations involving Banco Master.
On Monday (23), Justice Mendes also issued a ruling on the add-ons. He determined that indemnity payments may only be made to members of the Judiciary and the Public Prosecutor’s Office when expressly provided for in a law approved by Congress.
Valor has learned that the decision may also be brought before the full bench on Wednesday, so that both Mendes’s and Dino’s orders can be reviewed jointly by the other justices.
That will depend, however, on Fachin. The chief justice may opt not to review any of the cases dealing with the add-ons until progress is made on the transition rule for indemnity payments.
The adoption of a transitional regime for changes to the add-ons is supported by professional associations and by the São Paulo State Court of Justice (TJ-SP), which requested a “reasonable deadline” for the approval of guidelines on the matter.
At the meeting held at the Supreme Court, the speakers of the Chamber and the Senate said it will not be possible to pass a specific law on the add-ons in 2026, given the elections and the priorities already set for this year. Behind the scenes, the possibility was raised that a solution could be addressed within the administrative reform under discussion in the Chamber, though there is still no date for a vote.
Speaking to Valor, Federal Deputy Pedro Paulo (Social Democratic Party, PSD, Rio de Janeiro), coordinator of the administrative reform working group in the Chamber, defended including the issue in the proposal. “We will have to deliberate on this, and now there is pressure from outside in. There are bills under consideration, but I believe we should promptly discuss the administrative reform, which also addresses this [the add-ons], and resolve it at once,” he said.
On Tuesday, Motta said he rules out any possibility of the Chamber legalizing above-cap salaries through bills already under consideration or that may be introduced. “What we have said is that this discussion needs to be carried out in a much broader way. Dino’s decision, now reaffirmed in another case by Justice Gilmar, was appropriate and brings to the table of real Brazil, which faces many challenges, the incompatibility of continuing to pay these add-ons across various levels of the public administration,” he said.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said the Supreme Court’s recent decisions represent a “window of opportunity” for Congress to advance a bill aimed at curbing above-cap salaries, sent by the ministry to the Legislature in 2024.
In the Finance Ministry’s view, progress on the bill to curb above-cap salaries is also a way to begin the administrative reform debate in a “proper” manner, targeting public servants with the highest pay—often above constitutional limits.
In his ruling earlier this month, Dino ordered Congress to specify which indemnity payments qualify as exceptions to the public service salary cap. He said that although the Court has already established consolidated case law, there has been an “extraordinary” spread in the payment of installments of an “indemnity nature.”
According to him, the Supreme Court has ruled “hundreds (perhaps thousands) of times” on this type of payment, always upholding constitutional parameters.
The justice also said there is in Brazil a “phenomenon of anomalous multiplication” of add-ons, which he argued does not occur even in the world’s wealthiest countries. “Certainly the end of the Empire of Add-Ons, with effective pay equity, so necessary for valuing public servants and for the effectiveness and dignity of public service, will be more effective and swift,” he wrote.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
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02/25/2026
PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTMENTS JUMP IN BRAZIL DESPITE SLOW EXITS
Braskem control deal boosts 2025 volumes to R$50.1bn as IPO window remains shut
Driven by the transaction that transferred control of Braskem to restructuring-focused asset manager IG4, private equity funds increased allocations in 2025, even as exit routes remained weak with another year of a virtually closed IPO market on Brazil’s stock exchange.
In total, 89 investments were completed last year, reaching R$50.1 billion, data from the Brazilian Private Equity and Venture Capital Association (Abvcap) shared with Valor show. A year earlier, there were 72 transactions totaling R$13.3 billion.
The Braskem deal, under which IG4 will acquire shares held by creditor banks, is still pending approval from Brazil’s antitrust authority, the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (Cade).
The transaction skews the data, accounting for roughly R$20 billion of the total. Even excluding the deal, however, investment volume more than doubled last year.
Limited exits
On the divestment side, the narrow IPO window curbed stake sales. In 2025, divestments totaled R$9.42 billion, close to the R$10 billion seen in 2024, a year that was already considered weak.
Last year, block trades emerged as an alternative exit route, though limited to already listed companies. The strategy was used, for example, by CPP to sell stakes in shopping mall operator Allos and fashion retail group Azzas, and more recently by Pátria Investimentos in the sale of its stake in gym chain Smart Fit.
Beyond Braskem, another major private equity deal was the sale of data center company OData to U.S. asset manager BlackRock and Abu Dhabi-based investment firm MGX. A consortium of funds acquired education group Salta in another notable 2025 transaction.
The acquisition of corporate travel agency Voll by Warburg Pincus and the purchase of transmission lines from EDP by Actis were also among last year’s key deals.
Outlook for 2026
Industry executives expect a more favorable environment for divestments in 2026, supported by improved asset prices and stronger market conditions, as well as renewed foreign interest driven by global portfolio rotation.
As funds sell assets, they gain more room to raise fresh capital. The prospect of lower interest rates also supports this view.
Priscila Rodrigues, president of Abvcap, said funds with dry powder seized buying opportunities, but difficulties in exiting investments have hurt fundraising.
She noted that private equity funds remain active in Brazil because their focus, beyond being long term, is more attentive to “micro issues.” More recently, she said, the temperature gauge has shown an increase in negotiations for new investments, including more due diligence processes.
Rodrigues added that the “special situations” strategy has gained traction during years of high interest rates. The Braskem transaction itself fits that profile.
For this year, she sees a trend toward more deals but stressed that 2026 is a “shorter year,” due to both the World Cup and Brazil’s election calendar.
Focus on ‘micro’
Bruno Maimone, head of Brazil operations at Warburg Pincus, said that this focus on the “micro” allowed the firm to post a strong year in the country, both in investments and exits. The strategy has been to tilt the portfolio toward technology and financial services companies. “At the micro level we were able to find good companies,” he said.
The firm’s main investment in 2025 was a R$700 million check into Voll. Its key divestment was the sale of its stake in Salta.
In 2026, the natural course will be for Warburg Pincus to focus on existing portfolio companies, especially after completing a major transaction, Maimone said. Even so, the firm will remain active. “We have capital to allocate and will look at new investments.”
Luis Felipe Cruz, a partner at Pátria Investimentos, said the sale of the Smart Fit stake this week closed a successful investment cycle. He sees a more positive environment for divestments, supported by improved sentiment toward Latin America and the expected decline in interest rates this year.
Anderson Brito, head of investment banking at UBS BB, said there have been many discussions involving both international and local funds. “They are very active,” he said.
For international fund managers, including large sovereign wealth funds, portfolio reallocation toward emerging markets has also become a relevant theme, which tends to benefit Brazilian assets.
“The environment of persistent uncertainty in developed markets has increased the weight of diversification,” he said.
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com
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