Brazilian companies step up investment plans for India

Embraer, Taurus, Tramontina and Petrobras expand operations or seek deals amid growing bilateral ties

 

 

 

10/27/2025

India has increasingly attracted the attention of Brazilian businesses in recent years. Between July 2023 and August 2024, 77 Brazilian trade missions visited the country, more than double the number seen in comparable periods in previous years. Companies such as Embraer, Taurus, Tramontina, and Petrobras are among those already operating in India or seeking to expand their presence there.

Kenneth Félix Haczynski da Nóbrega, Brazil’s ambassador to India and Bhutan, told Valor that over half of the missions were either multisectoral or focused on agriculture and aerospace/defense. Other key areas included technology, healthcare, and energy.

Both countries, members of the BRICS bloc, have strengthened ties following trade tensions triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump, which affected industries in both Brazil and India.

Defense companies worldwide have begun seeking partnerships to reduce their technological dependence on powers such as the United States and France. This movement led the Abu Dhabi-based defense technology company Edge Group to invest more than $550 million in Brazil since March 2023.

Embraer is also stepping up efforts. The Brazilian aerospace company recently opened an office in India, primarily to support negotiations with the Indian government for the potential sale of up to 80 units of its KC-390 military transport aircraft.

Just over a week ago, when it inaugurated the new office, Embraer announced an agreement with Indian conglomerate Mahindra to advance a project that could lead to local production of the KC-390.

Also in the defense sector, Taurus and CBC (Companhia Brasileira de Cartuchos) are operating in India through joint ventures with local companies.

Tramontina, meanwhile, opened a factory in the Indian state of Karnataka this year—its first manufacturing plant outside Brazil—via a joint venture with the Indian firm Aequs.

Oil supply

Another strategic priority for India is securing petroleum supply partnerships. In February, executives from Petrobras visited India to finalize a deal with state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL).

According to Petrobras, India accounted for 4% of its oil exports in 2024. The country, which is the world’s third-largest oil importer, met about 85% of its oil demand through imports last year.

Brazil’s Central Bank reported in its 2024 Foreign Direct Investment Report that the stock of Brazilian direct investment in India reached $122 million at the end of 2023, a record high. Between 2014 and 2023, this investment grew by an average of 11.5% per year. Still, Brazil’s nominal investment in India remains small, representing less than 1% of its total global FDI stock.

“India is currently governed by a party with a very clear national vision. They’re building a network of international partnerships to support their rise, and I would say Brazil is among the countries they see as strategic, not just politically, but economically and technologically,” said Mr. Nóbrega. With business activity on the rise, the Brazilian Embassy is considering a new headquarters in the country.

Bilateral trade

In 2024, Brazilian imports from India totaled $6.8 billion, while exports reached $5.3 billion, based on trade data. From 2004 to 2024, India rose from 29th to 13th place among Brazil’s top export destinations, according to a June report by ApexBrasil, the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency. Since 2019, Brazil’s global exports have grown by an average of 7.3% per year, while exports to India have increased by 13.7%.

India’s economic growth is central to addressing some of its major domestic challenges, including widespread malnutrition. In this context, agricultural partnerships, especially in technology, play a key role in the Brazil–India relationship.

“Brazil is seen as a country capable of providing supplies and technology in key areas like agriculture,” said Ambassador Nóbrega, emphasizing the absence of geopolitical tensions between the two nations.

More than 50% of India’s population currently lives in rural areas, while over 80% of Brazil’s population is urban. Despite India’s significant agricultural output, the sector remains under-mechanized, creating an opportunity for Brazilian technology and expertise to fill the gap.

Wagner Antunes, head of trade at Brazil’s Embassy in India, highlighted the strong interest in defense and aviation. “Brazil has managed to build a solid and diversified industry,” he said.

The reporter traveled at the invitation of IATA.

*By Cristian Favaro — New Delhi

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Northeast industry bets on renewable energy

The shift toward clean energy could help attract new foreign investors to the region

10/23/2025 

With 86.8% of its installed power already derived from renewable sources—and set to receive 63% of Brazil’s upcoming solar projects and 89% of new wind projects—the Northeast region has emerged as the natural hub for investments in “powershoring,” the relocation of industrial chains seeking decarbonization and energy security. The region also hosts 18 industrial hubs with energy-intensive operations that could be transitioned to clean energy sources.

These findings are part of a study by Ceplan, a consulting firm, which will be presented on Thursday (23) at a seminar on accelerating powershoring investments in the region. The event is organized by the Northeast Consortium, Banco do Nordeste, and the Climate and Society Institute (iCS).

According to the report, the 18 industrial zones are distributed as follows: two in Maranhão (Açailândia and São Luís); three in Ceará (Caucaia, Eusébio, and Maracanaú); four in Pernambuco (Cabo de Santo Agostinho, Igarassu, Ipojuca, and Paulista); four in Alagoas (Coruripe, Marechal Deodoro, Rio Largo, and São Luís do Quitunde); and five in Bahia (Camaçari, Candeias, Feira de Santana, Simões Filho, and Vitória da Conquista).

These cities are home to industries that require high energy consumption, such as metallurgy and steelmaking, chemicals, food production, non-metallic minerals, rubber and plastic manufacturing, textiles, and automotive production.

“These industries serve both the domestic and export markets and could transition to renewable energy as a strategy to attract foreign investors who must demonstrate to shareholders that their operations are decarbonized,” explains Paulo Ferraz Guimarães, an economist and one of the study’s authors.

He notes that shifting an industry’s energy source is not a simple process. “It often requires adjustments in procedures, machinery, and possibly in production methods,” he says. However, he adds that this transition also represents an opportunity to adopt more efficient and sustainable production processes and strengthen integration into global value chains.

The conversion of existing industrial plants is only one path to powershoring expansion in Brazil. With 45.1 gigawatts of installed capacity and another 104.6 GW projected for development, along with robust port infrastructure and proximity to major consumer markets such as Europe and the United States, the Northeast is a natural destination for decarbonization projects, says Jorge Arbache, economist at the University of Brasília and Valor columnist, who coined the term “powershoring.”

“The question,” he points out, “is why this agenda has not progressed as quickly as anticipated.”

“I believe there are two main explanations,” says Mr. Arbache. “First, trade in green products faces multiple obstacles from developed countries, including both tariff and non-tariff barriers, which have become major roadblocks to progress. This agenda creates significant friction in sectors that lack the same conditions for producing, for example, green steel, green ceramics, or green hydrogen. Direct competition in these areas would be clearly detrimental to some companies,” he notes, citing as an example the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)—a tax the European Union will begin imposing in 2026 on the carbon emissions embedded in imported products.

“The issue is that without trade, there is no investment,” Mr. Arbache summarizes. “Many countries still fail to grasp that powershoring is essential to combat green inflation—the rise in prices driven by the need to invest in more sustainable processes and inputs,” he laments.

The second challenge, he says, lies in the lack of coordination and political commitment among the federal and state governments to advance the agenda. “The Nova Indústria Brasil (NIB) program, for instance, only touches on the issue indirectly. Companies need to see a stronger signal of commitment, such as the creation of dedicated funds and de-risking mechanisms to support these initiatives. States also need better coordination; they can’t each go their own way,” he argues.

A similar lack of coordination can be seen in financing, adds Mr. Guimarães. While the country faces energy oversupply at certain times of day—forcing the National Electric System Operator (ONS) to instruct renewable plants to reduce or halt generation (curtailment)—most available financial resources remain focused on expanding supply rather than optimizing use.

Despite these hurdles, Mr. Arbache points out that fuels have been one of the few areas showing faster progress. The former vice president for the private sector at the Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) explains: “It’s one of the few areas where compliance speaks for itself. Decarbonization rules have already been established, and companies are required to meet them—it’s not optional. But other high-emission sectors, such as steel, aluminum, and petrochemicals, which together account for roughly 30% of global emissions, also need to decarbonize. There’s no alternative.”

He adds that the key challenge is finding financially viable solutions. “These solutions don’t exist in many parts of Europe, the United States, or Japan. In fact, several of these countries have scaled back their energy transition investments, which only widens the opportunity for Brazil and the Northeast to take the lead.”

*By Marcelo Osakabe — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Petrobras, Equinor take lead in pre-salt auction

Sinopec and Karoon also secure blocs as bidding round reinforces focus on reserve replacement for Brazil’s energy security; five out of seven blocs get bids

 

 

 

10/23/2025

ANP Director-General Artur Watt — Foto: Divulgação
ANP Director-General Artur Watt — Photo: Divulgação

The National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) auctioned off five of seven pre-salt blocs on Wednesday (22). Petrobras and Equinor were the main highlights in a session that lasted about 40 minutes, each winning two areas—including one jointly operated block. Two newcomers also entered Brazil’s pre-salt production-sharing regime: China’s Sinopec and Australia’s Karoon, each securing one block.

The round, officially called the Permanent Offer of Production Sharing, took place just two days after the government granted an environmental permit for Petrobras to drill an exploratory well in the Amazon River mouth, emphasizing the growing government and industry discourse on the need to replenish oil reserves to ensure long-term energy security.

The auctioned areas—Esmeralda and Ametista in the Santos Basin, and Citrino, Itaimbezinho, and Jaspe in the Campos Basin—yielded R$103.7 million in signature bonuses and are expected to attract R$451.5 million in investments.

Two blocks, Ônix and Larimar, received no bids and will return to the portfolio for the next round, in accordance with the rules of the permanent offer system.

Unlike traditional auctions, the permanent offer allows companies to bid for blocks continuously, without waiting for a new call. Once qualified, oil companies remain eligible to acquire blocks under either the concession or production-sharing models. In this auction, the winning criterion was the highest percentage of profit oil offered to the federal government above the minimum threshold.

ANP Director-General Artur Watt described the permanent offer as a “large showcase” of oil prospects, stressing that the contracts mark “the first step toward sector continuity, job preservation, and reserve replacement.” He praised the auction’s success, emphasizing its importance for securing future investment and revenue streams.

Ilan Arbetman, an analyst at Ativa Investimentos, said Petrobras’s joint acquisition with Equinor of the Jaspe block underscores its strategy to maintain control over key areas of its operational hub in the Campos Basin, leveraging existing infrastructure and technical expertise.

Petrobras’s E&P director Sylvia Anjos called the outcome “very positive,” while Veronica Coelho, CEO of Equinor Brazil, said the new assets add “longevity” to the company’s portfolio.

“We’re adding long-term value to our portfolio while proving we can execute complex, large-scale projects—as we just did with Bacalhau last week,” Ms. Coelho said.

Luiz Fernando Paroli, CEO of Pré-Sal Petróleo S.A. (PPSA), said the results signal strong expectations for Brazil’s upstream potential. Combined with the first oil at Bacalhau, he argued, they indicate continued growth and expansion in national oil production.

The auction’s proximity to the Amazon River mouth’s drilling license further reinforced the government’s message that exploration must continue to guarantee energy security. The new oil province is also known as Equatorial Margin.

ANP Director Symone Araújo highlighted the need to advance into new exploration frontiers, particularly along the Equatorial Margin—a vast area stretching from Amapá to Rio Grande do Norte.“The Amazonas River mouth permit is an important milestone for the environmental area,” Ms. Araújo said.

Mr. Watt added that the first licensing process in new frontiers “is always more complex,” but that such projects become benchmarks for future environmental reviews. He emphasized that oil reserve replacement remains compatible with the energy transition.

ANP directors said the fourth cycle of the permanent production-sharing offer may feature up to 26 blocks, including Ônix and Larimar, areas already approved by the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE), along with new ones under review.

Thiago de Oliveira, a partner at Siqueira Castro Advogados, noted that the next auction may include the Mogno block, the first located beyond the 200-nautical-mile limit, marking a new phase in Brazil’s offshore exploration.

“The effects of this round go beyond immediate revenue—they signal a new stage in the expansion of the production-sharing regime,” he said.

By Kariny Leal and Fábio Couto — Rio de Janeiro

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Brazil attracts more FDI, but advanced industries lag behind

McKinsey data shows rising investment in energy, falling in tech

10/23/2025

Brazil has attracted increasing volumes of foreign investment in sectors considered strategic for the future of the global economy. However, the surge has been largely driven by natural resources segments such as energy and mining. Foreign investment in advanced industries—including electric vehicles, batteries, and semiconductors—is declining, moving in the opposite direction of global trends, a new McKinsey & Company study shows.

Since 2022, annual average foreign direct investment (FDI) in Brazil has grown 67% compared with the 2015–2019 period, based on announced greenfield projects, that is, investments that create new productive capacity in the country. In the energy sector, this growth was even sharper: up 158.78% in the same period, reaching an annual average of $17 billion, or about 46.5% of total FDI. In advanced industries, on the other hand, there was a 31.1% drop, with an average of $2.9 billion per year.

Nelson Ferreira, senior partner at McKinsey, said Brazil will likely continue to attract commodity-linked investment. “In areas like agriculture and renewable energy, the country is highly competitive. There’s interest in rare earth elements and metals like copper and gold. Foreigners are investing in those. And everything that depends on renewable energy, like data centers,” he said.

Still, he sees challenges in boosting foreign capital into industrial sectors. “Macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates make returns difficult, especially in advanced industries. Brazil’s competitiveness in manufacturing has been deteriorating. The country would need a new cycle of investment in industrial parks and artificial intelligence to regain its competitiveness in these more strategic sectors,” Mr. Ferreira said.

Barriers for advanced industries

There are several obstacles hindering the development of advanced industries, said Rafael Cagnin, executive director of the Institute for Industrial Development Studies (IEDI). “The main issue is production cost, which stems in large part from tax complexities, but not only that. Other factors include capital costs and exchange rate volatility, which make it harder to calculate the return on foreign investment,” Cagnin said.

Logistics bottlenecks are another challenge. “Especially in these strategic sectors, domestic market scale won’t be enough to meet demand, and the country faces major infrastructure gaps, which reduces competitiveness. Also, it would help to have a clearer strategy for international integration. Multilateralism faces setbacks, but bilateral agreements must move forward,” he said.

Mr. Cagnin also pointed to other concerns in this context, such as the need to modernize regulatory frameworks and the presence of organized crime in regulated economic activities, both of which deter foreign investors.

Workforce training is another area that needs improvement to enable the development of advanced industries, said Roberto de Medeiros, head of the National Industrial Training Service (SENAI). He also argued that attracting international investment will require progress in Brazilian technology. “There needs to be a minimum level of technological competence to succeed in drawing investment,” he said.

Due to these challenges, experts believe Brazil is missing an opportunity to use its natural resources more effectively to also develop domestic industry in globally strategic sectors.

Venilton Tadini, CEO of the Brazilian Association of Infrastructure and Basic Industries (ABDIB), recalled that the country has already missed out on past investment waves. “During the telecom privatization, Brazil failed to build a local industry around it. The same happened with renewable energy generation, which attracted a high volume of investment in recent years,” he said.

“Unfortunately, there was no proper coordination between investments in the sector and the local industry. In solar power, all panels are imported. It should have generated a domestic effect. In wind power, some companies even left the country,” Tadini noted.

Today, ABDIB is setting up a working group focused on data centers to help local companies seize opportunities in new projects. “It’s a fantastic chance for Brazil to become a major global player. We can’t miss this kind of window,” he said.

Some signs of progress

Despite the many challenges, experts also point to progress. Mr. Cagnin of IEDI highlighted the tax reform and an industrial policy aligned with sustainability goals as positive developments, though he noted that the pace of progress remains insufficient.

The McKinsey study also outlines a global trend that Mr. Ferreira sees as favorable for Brazil: while foreign direct investment is covering greater geographical distances, the geopolitical distance between investors and targets is narrowing.

In this context, Brazil’s traditionally neutral geopolitical stance tends to work in its favor, Mr. Ferreira said.

He added that Brazil is likely to see more diversified sources of foreign investment, which is currently heavily concentrated in Europe and North America. “We’ll see more and more projects coming from the Middle East—particularly the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia—as well as China and India.

We’ll see new investors from Asia, because the global economic center of gravity is there now, and they need Brazil’s natural resources,” Mr. Ferreira said.

*By Taís Hirata — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Banks, fintechs duel over taxation

Traditional institutions have higher nominal tax rates and advocate for equality; rivals see lower effective rates

 

 

10/21/2025

The Brazilian Federation of Banks (Febraban) has intensified its conflict with fintechs over taxation. According to Valor, the dispute escalated behind the scenes regarding Provisional Presidential Decree 1303, when fintechs opposed an increase in the Social Contribution on Net Profit (CSLL) rate that would apply to them and, in response, proposed raising the rate for traditional banks.

In a report released on Monday, Febraban outlines arguments against fintechs paying a lower CSLL rate and advocates for tax fairness. The organization strongly criticizes Nubank. “It seems unjustifiable that the world’s most profitable financial institution (The Banker), with the highest valuation in the banking industry (Bloomberg), with bank explicitly in its name, 100 million accounts, the second-largest card portfolio, R$200 billion in personal loans, and 67% annual interest for households, pays a nominal CSLL rate lower than that of banks. This is very difficult to explain!” stated Febraban, which represents traditional banks.

When contacted, Nubank said it was pleased to see that Febraban finally acknowledged that fintechs already pay higher effective tax rates than large banks. However, it alleges that the federation uses biased arguments to harm competition and penalize fintechs that have promoted financial inclusion in Brazil.

“Nubank is proud to have spearheaded a transformation in the sector, increasing competition and access to credit, and reducing interest rates, always focused on offering the best products and services to its customers. We did this through an efficient business model, technological innovation, regulatory compliance, and paying an effective tax rate in Brazil of 34.1%, the highest among the largest companies in the sector,” it said in a statement.

For Febraban, banks and fintechs should pay the same tax rate. Fintechs argue that while banks’ nominal tax rate is higher, their effective tax rate is lower due to factors that reduce it. Febraban says that discussing the effective tax rate without showing the tax calculations is a failure to engage in the debate.

The study also responds to comments by Roberto Campos Neto, former president of Brazil’s Central Bank and current vice president and global head of public policy at Nubank, who said last week that fintechs have a higher effective tax rate than banks.

*By Álvaro Campos, Valor — São Paulo
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com/
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New hacker attack targets FictorPay, a business services company

According to one source, Brazil’s Central Bank observed unusual financial transactions made through FictorPay and alerted Celcoin, the company to which the fintech is affiliated

 

 

 

10/21/2025 

— Foto: Pixabay
— Photo: Pixabay

FictorPay, a fintech, was the target of a hacker attack that stole company funds on Sunday. The information was first reported by Platô Br and confirmed by Valor.

FictorPay offers financial services for businesses, such as accounts, loans, advance payments, and payment tools. According to one source, Brazil’s Central Bank observed unusual financial transactions through FictorPay on Sunday and alerted Celcoin, the company to which FictorPay is affiliated. Celcoin is linked to Pix, the Central Bank’s digital payment system, but FictorPay is not.

Sources following the case say that it was “a direct attack” on FictorPay, unlike other attacks occurred this year. In these other cases, the attacks were carried out through information technology service providers (ITSPs), which are the companies that connect financial and payment institutions, on the one hand, and BC’s systems, such as Pix itself, on the other.

According to the sources, no systems managed by the Central Bank were attacked.

In a statement, FictorPay said it was notified of “irregular activity in the technology environment of a service provider that serves several companies, including [our] company.” According to the fintech, “the incident is being investigated by the provider itself, with the support of information security specialists, and to date, there is no record of any impact on FictorPay’s own systems.”

Celcoin also released a statement saying that there was no invasion, attack, or compromise of its technology infrastructure or transactional environment. “Atypical activity was identified in a customer’s account, which was promptly detected by our monitoring systems. As soon as the behavior was noticed, we preventively blocked the transactions and immediately alerted the customer.”

“Analysis indicates that the origin of the incident lies with a white-label application solutions provider used by this customer and other companies in the market, impacting several BaaS and Core Banking players, with no connection to Celcoin,” it stated. The company says it is “supporting the customer in the investigation and recovery procedures.”

When contacted, the Central Bank declined to comment.

*By Estevão Taiar and Álvaro Campos — Brasília and São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Brazil blackout reveals ongoing risks in national power grid

Fire in Eletrobras substation caused cascading outages across the country and raised reliability concerns

10/21/2025

Reactor fire in Paraná disrupted electricity across Brazil for up to 2.5 hours — Foto: Divulgação/Bombeiros
Reactor fire in Paraná disrupted electricity across Brazil for up to 2.5 hours — Photo: Divulgação/Bombeiros

A fire at a power substation in the southern state of Paraná triggered a nationwide blackout in the early hours of Tuesday (14), highlighting structural vulnerabilities in Brazil’s electricity grid.

The incident occurred at a reactor in the Bateias substation operated by Eletrobras, which is part of a 500-kilovolt (kV) high-voltage transmission line. The fire caused the shutdown of about 10 gigawatts (GW) of power. While some regions experienced only brief outages, others were left without electricity for over two hours.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva met with Mines and Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira at the presidential palace just hours after returning from an overseas trip to discuss the incident.

The blackout activated the Regional Load Relief Scheme (ERAC), a safety protocol that automatically disconnects parts of the system to prevent broader damage. Authorities downplayed the event and rejected the notion of a systemic crisis. Mr. Silveira called it a one-off infrastructure issue, saying Brazil’s national grid operator, ONS, responded promptly.

ONS said the fire severed the connection between the southern grid and the Southeast and Central-West regions, prompting a preventive supply cut across the country in varying degrees. The Ministry of Mines and Energy classified the incident as a “severe contingency.”

In a statement, ONS said it began a coordinated response to restore power as soon as the situation was identified. Electricity was reestablished in the North, Northeast, Southeast, and Central-West regions within 90 minutes. Full restoration in the South took about two and a half hours.

ONS Director-General Marcio Rea said in the statement that the agency quickly reestablished the system, “demonstrating the robustness of the National Interconnected System (SIN).” He described the event as a controlled power interruption caused by a “fortuitous incident,” the type of failure that could happen in any country.

Eletrobras said the shutdown was triggered by a “reactor incident” and that power was restored shortly after. “ONS will determine what led to the larger disturbance in the national system. Eletrobras will collaborate in identifying the causes,” the company said.

System resilience

While experts acknowledged the system’s general robustness, the scale of the outage raised concerns. Luiz Carlos Ciocchi, former ONS director-general, said the blackout was “very different” from a 2023 incident that did not involve a fire. “The first question that needs answering is what exactly happened at the substation and why a fire in one component shut down an entire plant,” he said.

Mr. Ciocchi added that the automatic protection scheme worked as intended, but further analysis was needed. “System security must always be a top priority in the power sector,” he said. He noted that the fire happened during low consumption hours and in a region without high renewable output. “The key is understanding what went wrong.”

Power systems engineer Celso Torino pointed out that the 10GW outage was almost equivalent to power plant Itaipu’s capacity of 14 GW.

“We need to better understand why a reactor fire at a 500kV substation caused the complete shutdown of 750kV lines connecting Itaipu’s 60-hertz output to Southeast Brazil,” said Mr. Torino, a former Itaipu operations director. “The N-1 security criterion tells us this shouldn’t happen.” He referred to the N-1 standard, which requires the grid to withstand the loss of a key component without triggering cascading failures.

Mr. Torino said the episode calls for a broader governance review of the national grid, including planning, operational stability, and consumer cost structures.

Carlos Adolfo Pereira, who heads the transmission division at the Brazilian Infrastructure and Basic Industry Association (ABDIB), said it was too soon to conclude there was a substation failure and a more detailed assessment was needed.

He noted that the industry has been investing in modernizing transmission systems, especially replacing outdated equipment. “Transmission companies are expected to invest about R$40 billion through 2034 to upgrade old infrastructure,” he said.

“Reliability issue”

Edvaldo Santana, former director at energy regulator ANEEL and a columnist for Valor, said the blackout was one of the most significant in recent memory. The August 2023 outage cut 22.5GW of supply, while a 2010 failure involving Itaipu lines knocked out about 11GW.

Mr. Santana questioned how a fire in a single reactor—typically considered a minor contingency—could affect the entire country, especially during low demand at around 12:30 a.m. “Even for a critical substation, a reactor fire should have been contained locally. This is a serious reliability issue,” he said.

Industry sources described the Bateias substation as strategically important, part of a high-capacity 500kV line, but said it should have withstood the failure. The widespread impact indicates the system is “sensitive” to minor incidents, they said.

Experts warned the event reinforces a troubling conclusion: Brazil’s grid remains “on a knife’s edge,” not due to energy shortages but because of a combination of structural weaknesses. These include fragile transmission infrastructure, equipment failures, excessive daytime solar generation followed by steep nighttime demand ramps, and networks that remain ill-equipped for extreme weather events.

Repeat of a known pattern

The event echoed a familiar pattern seen since the August 15, 2023 blackout. An ONS report blamed that outage on voltage control failures in wind and solar farms. Since then, the operator has adopted a more conservative management approach.

Still, Brazil has experienced at least five major blackouts since then. Even minor incidents have had an impact. In August last year, a short circuit at an Eletrobras substation caused by a stray kite left 942,000 households without power in São Paulo and Guarulhos.

Heavy rains also knocked down transmission lines and damaged dams in Rio Grande do Sul, while storms cut power to millions in the São Paulo metro area. In both cases, authorities struggled to respond quickly, leaving consumers in the dark for days.

Specialists advocate for capacity auctions and technologies such as batteries and reversible power plants to improve grid resilience.

“Until 2021, utilities invested R$18 billion a year. By 2025, that number will rise to R$46 billion. From 2025 to 2029, we expect R$235 billion in total investments, with 40% focused on modernizing networks,” said Ricardo Brandão, executive director for regulation at the Brazilian Association of Electricity Distributors (ABRADEE).

The blackout comes just as Brazil prepares to transition from the dry season to the rainy period, which starts in November. There is still uncertainty over rainfall patterns and the recovery of hydropower reservoirs. Operational challenges are compounded by the rapid growth of renewables and pricing distortions that create additional costs for consumers and threaten the sector’s balance.

Brazil narrowly avoided two national blackouts this year, one in April and another on Father’s Day, August 10. With low daytime demand, rooftop and small-scale solar generation surged to record levels, forcing ONS to disconnect large wind and solar parks to avoid overloads. Such incidents occur when the grid lacks infrastructure to carry excess generation, or when supply outpaces demand.

(Renan Truffi contributed reporting from Brasília.)

*By Marlla Sabino, Fábio Couto and Robson Rodrigues — Brasília, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Governments, corporations increasingly concerned about hacker attacks

Critical systems, such as payment systems and power plants, including nuclear ones, are among the targets; global losses could reach $57bn this year

10/20/2025 

— Foto: Pete Linforth/Pixabay

— Photo: Pete Linforth/Pixabay
 

Online scams are part of Brazilians’ daily lives—some of the most common involve criminals posing as relatives in need and asking for help paying an upcoming bill or faking the kidnapping of a family member and demanding ransom. In 2025, however, the country saw more serious incidents affecting the national financial system. Hackers broke into C&M and Sinqia, two companies that provide tech services for Pix, Brazil’s instant payment system, and stole more than R$1.5 billion. In September, the Brazilian Federal Police arrested eight cybercriminals before they could pull off another billion-real hack against the Pix ecosystem, this time targeting Caixa Econômica Federal, a state-owned bank.

These cases are examples of crimes that have increasingly concerned governments and large corporations: attacks on critical systems, such as payment platforms, port and airport navigation systems, and the operation of power plants, including nuclear power plants. It’s no surprise that cybersecurity was the main topic of discussion at this year’s Futurecom in São Paulo. Hacks into critical systems have disruptive potential and can have a similar effect to a terrorist attack, except that the attackers can be miles away and easily conceal their identities. This is what happened last September, when a cyberattack hit several European airports, including Heathrow (UK), Brussels (Belgium), and Dublin (Ireland), among others.

The objective, in attacks on both government and corporate targets, is economic, whether by stealing large sums, demanding ransoms to “return” tech systems’ control to their original owners, or stealing citizens’ data for use in other crimes. “There’s [a lack of] punishment and difficulty in tracking and identifying these hackers. Furthermore, payments [to criminals] are made with cryptocurrencies, which can be untraceable,” says Márcio Kanamaru, leading partner for technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) at KPMG.

The losses reach hundreds of billions of dollars. According to a study by Cybersecurity Ventures, published last March, ransomware attacks are expected to cause losses of $57 billion this year, and the figure is expected to reach $276 billion per year by 2031. According to an IBM global survey on the cost of data breaches conducted with approximately 600 companies, these attacks caused, on average, losses of $4.4 million for companies. Furthermore, some industries face more problems than others. The average loss among healthcare companies, for example, is $7.42 million per system breach. Criminals target databases containing patient information, which are then used to defraud insurance companies and impersonate people, among other crimes.

Losses vary from the ransom paid to criminals to the time it takes companies to fully restore their systems after a breach. The IBM survey indicates that 76% of organizations took more than 100 days to recover from an attack, while 26% took more than 150 days to resume normal operations—only 2% of the companies surveyed said they took less than 50 days to restore their systems. “This calculation compares similar situations. We try to understand how long the company’s system was down. But it’s still a very subjective metric,” explains Eliane Rodrigues, director of information security at VTEX.

Another problem is underreporting, as many crimes are not reported to authorities to avoid damaging the organization’s reputation. “Generally, companies don’t want their names involved; they often don’t even file a police report to avoid exposure,” says Paulo Baldin, director of cybersecurity at CLA Brasil. Underreporting is even more common in companies targeted by organized crime. “When a police operation and a company’s name appear in connection with a criminal group, it causes significant reputational damage,” emphasizes Paula Leite, director of business intelligence at security consultancy Control Risks.

But cybercrimes can take on even greater dimensions, especially when attacks are carried out between nations. “One of the first measures Russia took against Ukraine was to attempt to take down the enemy country’s digital infrastructure,” highlights Carlos Barroso, IP head for Latin America at Nokia. “These invasions are intended to demoralize governments and destabilize regions,” Mr. Barroso believes. “On a broader geopolitical level, it is possible to compromise energy and water infrastructure and cause very serious accidents for the population,” adds Arthur Capella, general director of Tenable Brazil.

These attacks are also becoming more frequent. In July, the Singapore Ministry of Defense said its critical systems were being targeted by hackers, allegedly Chinese, who were attempting to spy on essential sectors such as energy, telecommunications, and the public healthcare system. In October 2024, the servers of American Water, the largest public sanitation utility in the United States, were hacked, putting the water supply to 14 million Americans at risk. The company managed to shut down its systems before a major loss occurred, but the customer service portal, as well as the billing system, was down for a few days, creating problems for consumers.

The biggest challenge in the coming years will be building mechanisms to mitigate these risks, as the cybersecurity industry faces challenges such as a lack of skilled labor and the need for more investment, says Mr. Kanamaru of KPMG. “As the trend is for infrastructure to become increasingly digital, it’s important to consider a long-term government policy for cybersecurity. We will have to continually invest and have budgetary provisions to ensure these critical systems are always protected.”

*By Pedro Marques — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Uncertainties led to monetary tightening, Central Bank director says

Monetary policy head Nilton David signals hawkish stance, arguing that scrutiny of all data sets is required to ensure convergence to 3% inflation target

 

 

 

 

10/17/2025 

Economic uncertainty and unchecked inflation expectations prompted Brazil’s Central Bank to keep borrowing costs at a higher level than in previous cycles, said Nilton David, the monetary authority’s monetary policy head.

Mr. David spoke at an event hosted by UBS BB in Washington, D.C. The Selic benchmark rate currently stands at 15% per year.

“The Central Bank decided [in July, when it halted the tightening cycle] that it had already accumulated enough rate hikes to place us at a more restrictive level of interest rates and monetary conditions than would be prescribed under normal circumstances,” he said. “Why set the Selic at 15% and keep it there? Because inflation expectations were unanchored, and because there are many more layers of uncertainty in this cycle than in past ones.”

According to Mr. David, these “tighter conditions” in monetary policy require a “microscopic look” at all sets of data. Only then, he said, will it be possible to assess whether the Central Bank’s stance remains appropriate and whether inflation is effectively converging toward the target.

“This is the phase we’re in now. We believe we need to stay at this level for a fairly prolonged period until we’re convinced that the data are converging toward where we believe they should be,” he said.

In public remarks, Mr. David has repeatedly stressed the need for a tighter monetary stance than would be necessary if inflation expectations were anchored, and for a longer period than would be warranted in a less uncertain environment.

At its most recent meeting, when it kept the benchmark rate at 15% per year, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) said it would remain “vigilant” and assess whether holding the rate at this level for a “prolonged period” will be enough to bring inflation back to target. The 12-month Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) through September stood at 5.17%, compared to the 3% target, with a tolerance band of 1.5 percentage points above or below.

The Central Bank director underscored the importance of analyzing the full range of data during this extended period, “because the lagged effects are different in each sector” of the economy. “The data we’ve seen so far are consistent with what we’ve planned up to this point,” said Mr. David, who is in the United States to attend International Monetary Fund meetings.

He also noted that inflation expectations captured by the Central Bank’s Focus survey rose last year but have since fallen “consistently,” though they remain well above the 3% target. “Even if I’d hoped they would be moving faster than they are, they are moving in our direction and are likely converging toward what we believe will help bring inflation to target,” he said.

In setting the benchmark interest rate, the COPOM focuses on the first quarter of 2027, for which it projects an IPCA rising 3.4%. Median market projections from the Focus survey currently point to inflation of 3.9% in 2027 and 3.68% in 2028.

*By Gabriel Shinohara — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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Strong competition expected in landmark Paranaguá port auction

Concession for access channel of Paraná port to be auctioned next Wednesday (22)

 

 

 

10/17/2025

The concession for the access channel of the Port of Paranaguá (Paraná), set to be auctioned on Wednesday (22), has drawn strong interest from both domestic and foreign groups. At the bid submission session held on Thursday (16) at the B3 stock exchange, in São Paulo, at least four groups were present, including representatives from Brazil’s DTA Engenharia, Belgium’s Jan De Nul, and China’s CHEC Dredging, part of China Communications Construction Company (CCCC). According to sources, Deme also submitted a proposal.

The project foresees R$1.2 billion in investments and a 25-year contract, renewable for up to 70 years. The main work involves deepening the channel from 13 meters to 15.5 meters, which will allow larger vessels to access the port. The deepening is expected to be completed by the fifth year of the concession. The winning group will also be responsible for maintaining the channel’s depth through regular dredging and managing vessel navigation.

The Paranaguá project is one of the most anticipated in Brazil’s port sector because it is the first concession focused exclusively on a port’s waterway channel. As such, it is expected to serve as a model for other similar projects under study.

According to Frederico Dias, director-general of the National Waterway Transport Agency (ANTAQ), ports that may follow the same model include Santos (São Paulo), Itajaí (Santa Catarina), Rio Grande (Rio Grande do Sul), and several terminals in Bahia.

The Itajaí project has already been submitted to Brazil’s public spending watchdog (TCU) and is the most advanced, with an auction planned for the first half of 2026. The Santos channel concession will enter the public consultation phase in November, Mr. Dias said.

Studies are also underway for a partial concession in Bahia covering the ports of Salvador, Aratu, and Ilhéus, which could include channel management, though discussions are still ongoing. The project for the Port of Rio Grande channel is at an early stage, but authorities are working to hold the auction in 2026.

“The private sector is better equipped to manage port channels, which is why we are pursuing this concession model,” Mr. Dias said. “The public sector faces administrative complexities that hinder quick and efficient delivery, whereas the private sector can ensure better channel maintenance, more frequent hydrographic surveys, and safer monitoring.”

According to Rafael Schwind, partner at Justen, Pereira, Oliveira & Talamini, port authorities—currently responsible for channel maintenance—have long struggled to hire dredging services. “Brazilian legislation does not allow long-term contracts for dredging or construction works. Historically, that has been a major issue,” he said.

The process has also faced a number of challenges from interested companies. ANTAQ has so far disclosed four formal objections to the auction.

DTA Engenharia, Brazil’s leading dredging company, criticized the lack of restrictions on foreign state-subsidized players and requested mechanisms to prevent vertical integration among port operators, especially since the Paranaguá Container Terminal (TCP), the port’s main operator, is owned by China Merchants.

“By failing to consider potential market concentration, authorities overlooked that a Chinese dredging firm like CHEC could result in two Chinese state-owned companies operating in the same port,” said Renan Beloto, DTA’s legal manager. “We have nothing against the Chinese government, but it poses a national sovereignty risk.”

The company also requested clearer rules for vessel operations and docking, arguing that having the channel operator under the same control as one of the terminals could create conflicts of interest in managing ship traffic.

ANTAQ rejected the objections, stating that the project includes legal safeguards to ensure competition and that many of DTA’s criticisms had already been reviewed and dismissed in earlier stages, including by the TCU.

Mr. Dias said that objections are common in complex auctions of this kind, but added that the arguments raised had been properly addressed. “As for foreign participation, restricting it would affect all auctions that allow international bidders. On the contrary, we want more competition,” he said.

The Dutch dredging group Van Oord also filed an objection, arguing that the timeframe to analyze the auction documents was too short and requesting a 60-day deferral, which was denied. The other two objections came from Etesco Construções and CTC Infra, both rejected by ANTAQ. In addition, DTA and Etesco have filed separate petitions with the TCU.

  • By Taís Hirata — São Paulo
  • Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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