Chance of higher U.S. interest rates for longer could push IPOs to 2025

04/26/2024

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Vitor Saraiva — Foto: Silvia Costanti/Valor

Contrary to the optimism at the end of last year, 2024 has begun weakly for stock offerings on the Brazilian stock exchange, marking the least active start in at least eight years in terms of financial volume. This year has seen six follow-ons from already listed companies, totaling R$4.9 billion, significantly bolstered by Energisa’s R$2.5 billion transaction. There’s a growing sentiment that the Brazilian market may experience its third consecutive off-year for initial public offerings (IPOs).

According to Valor’s calculations based on B3 data—Brazil’s stock exchange—the financial volume only includes local transactions, excluding Banco Inter’s offering on Nasdaq aimed at enhancing liquidity on the American stock exchange. Last year, market activity stalled following the public disclosure of a major corporate fraud involving retailer Americanas, halting business momentum in the first quarter. During the same period, the volume reached R$7.1 billion across four transactions, one of which involved Assaí, with Casino selling R$4 billion worth of shares to fulfill its creditor obligations. Since May, however, the market has seen increased activity, primarily from debt-laden companies.

This year, the standout offering is expected from Sabesp, which is undergoing a privatization process by the São Paulo government that could generate around R$20 billion. The plan aims to attract a reference investor to acquire 15% of the company, with ongoing evaluations of how to navigate the high market volatility. Another significant transaction is Eletrobras’s sale of Isa Cteep shares, potentially raising R$4 billion, contingent on improved market conditions.

To date, this year’s total only surpasses that of 2016, when the volume was confined to R$3.49 billion across four transactions between January and April—a period notably affected by high market volatility and President Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment. On the contrary, the most successful start was in 2021, when the Brazilian stock exchange hosted 33 offers in the first four months alone, totaling a record R$54.9 billion, buoyed by substantial global liquidity, and that period included 22 IPOs, a stark contrast to the recent trend.

The year’s weak start has disappointed investment banks and companies eager to enter the stock market. Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have been repeatedly deferred as new data points to a persistently robust American economy, suggesting a prolonged period of high rates. This delay is pushing back the anticipated opening of the IPO window.

Additionally, concerns over Brazil’s fiscal health are impacting market transactions, prompting listed companies to delay raising capital to avoid diluting shareholder value. Bruno Saraiva, co-head of Bank of America’s investment bank in Brazil, notes that the ongoing delay in U.S. rate cuts has dampened the market’s recovery hopes, deviating from initial forecasts of five Federal Reserve rate reductions to now just one expected in December. This adjustment follows reports of persistent inflation, complicating predictions for deal timing. “Today, it’s harder to know when there will be a deal,” he remarks. “When rates start to decline in the U.S., emerging markets will benefit.”

Vitor Saraiva, head of equity capital markets at XP, acknowledges that U.S. inflation data has altered projections, yet he remains hopeful for a few year-end IPOs, contingent on sustained expectations for Fed rate cuts. “Today, if there are [IPOs], it will be towards the end of the year,” he asserts.

Despite ongoing volatility, the secondary offering by Boa Safra, which attracted solid market interest, demonstrates that high-performing companies can successfully raise capital. “Good companies with compelling narratives earn credibility in the market,” he explains.

Marcello Lo Re, head of Latin American equity capital markets at Morgan Stanley, observes a resurgence in market activity in other Latin American nations, particularly Mexico, where the financial institution is increasingly focusing due to rising capital market activities. In Brazil, attention remains fixed on the latter half of the year, particularly as investors begin considering the prospects for 2025 from September onwards.

*Por Fernanda Guimarães — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/