Projection is lower than the 161 million tonnes in December’s report
01/10/2024
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The scenario could result in a loss of productivity for the country’s crops, currently estimated at 3,507 kilos per hectare — Foto: Wenderson Araujo/CNA
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) attaché in Brasilia estimated Brazilian soybean production at 158 million tonnes for the 2023/24 cycle, lower than the 162 million reported in October. This month’s projection is also lower than the 161 million tonnes estimated by the agency in its December world grain supply and demand report.
According to the USDA, the revision was due to the poor weather outlook resulting from El Niño, especially in the Central-West states.
“Hot, dry weather, low soil moisture levels, as well as below-average precipitation during most of October and November had a negative impact on yield prospects,” the USDA said in a report.
Weather conditions are also adverse in Brazil’s South region. The report cites the situation in Rio Grande do Sul, where rains in the last two months have slowed the pace of sowing, risking the seeds planted more recently missing the ideal climatic window for proper plant growth.
This scenario could result in a loss of productivity for the country’s crops, currently estimated at 3,507 kilos per hectare. The cultivation area was revised to 45.2 million hectares, 200,000 hectares less than in the previous report.
Finally, given the expectation of a smaller supply, Brazilian exports are expected to total 100 million tonnes this cycle, a reduction of 2 million tonnes compared to the USDA office’s projection for the 2022/23 season.
*Por Paulo Santos — São Paulo
Source: Valor International