A study by the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil), commissioned by Valor, found that the slower pace reflects a shift in the nature of opportunities rather than a decline in their number. China’s new growth cycle prioritizes quality over quantity, creating space for Brazil to supply higher value-added goods aligned with the country’s evolving economic model.

The agency, which operates under the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services and maintains offices in China, has been mapping opportunities for Brazilian exports and investments.

China’s slowdown reflects structural factors such as an aging population, the shift to a more service- and innovation-driven economy, and domestic adjustments to reduce dependence on heavy infrastructure spending and low-tech industries.

Even at a lower rate, China’s growth remains among the highest of major economies. In absolute terms, Apex noted, it means adding to the Chinese GDP each year the equivalent of the entire economy of a mid-sized nation, keeping China a strategic market for Brazil.

New niches for Brazilian exports

China’s current growth phase brings trends favorable to Brazilian exporters: food security remains a top priority; the urban middle class drives demand for convenience and higher-value goods; e-commerce, which accounted for nearly 30% of consumer goods sales in 2024 in a market valued at $2.22 trillion, creates visibility for coffee, wine, and fruit; and there is growing demand for natural and functional foods tied to health and well-being.

Though bilateral trade remains dominated by commodities, there are underexplored niches with high added value. Processed foods, soy products, juices, healthy snacks, and frozen convenience items could meet the needs of Chinese urban consumers. Beyond food, natural cosmetics, wines and sparkling wines, wood products and sustainable design, biotechnology and supplements, renewable energy, and strategic minerals also hold promise. Brazil could also expand in pulp and bioproducts, moving into sustainable packaging and specialty papers.

Apex stressed that Brazil must look beyond traditional commodities, with e-commerce as a strategic channel. Chinese consumers are increasingly demanding, making it crucial for Brazil to deliver products that stand out in quality, innovation, and sustainability. Such a shift would benefit not only companies but also supply chains, local communities, and the broader economy.

Export diversification challenges

Tatiana Prazeres, Brazil’s secretary of foreign trade, said the country’s export profile to China is already changing, though without altering the dominance of “big numbers.” With soy, oil, and iron ore still accounting for about 75% of exports, other products’ gains are not yet visible on the macro scale tracked by analysts.

“Brazil doesn’t need to settle for selling soy, oil, and iron ore to China. That reality is often overlooked by those who focus only on the macro view,” she said in an interview with Valor. She pointed to export categories that saw dramatic growth from 2024 to 2025: chocolate and cocoa-based preparations, virtually nonexistent before, rose more than 1,000%; plastic pipes and fittings nearly 980%; faucets and valves nearly 800%; essential oils more than 100%; and frozen beef about 40%.

Though small in absolute terms, these gains could signal underexploited markets for Brazil, she added. “This doesn’t move the needle on our overall export profile to China, but for the companies involved it can be transformative. Even for supply chains and local communities. And in a challenging global context, finding new destinations is highly relevant.”

For Ms. Prazeres, the main challenge lies in the lack of knowledge about China. She highlighted three layers in foreign trade: competitiveness, export support, and the relationship with China. The first two are limited by the so-called “Brazil cost” that affects all markets. The third is unique, shaped by widespread lack of understanding of the Chinese market. She argued that all three must be tackled simultaneously.

“The private sector needs to be more present in China. You need to have a physical presence, build relationships, understand the Chinese digital ecosystem, which is completely different from ours,” she said. While China is competitive in industrial sectors, she noted, it does not impose high barriers to industrial goods, leaving opportunities that Brazilian companies still need to explore.

She said public-private partnerships should drive these efforts, since many private initiatives rely on proper government support. At the same time, companies themselves must engage to turn opportunities into actual business.

Former Secretary of Foreign Trade and BMJ Consultants partner Welber Barral noted that value-added products do have a strong impact on supply chains, but said the private sector bears the first responsibility. Because this is a niche agenda, it largely involves small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which remain inexperienced in exporting. “I think the private sector lacks initiative. Companies still look too little to exports. They could do more, and then demand more from the government as well,” he said.

The National Confederation of Industry (CNI) highlighted that Brazil’s low innovation levels limit the ability of firms, especially SMEs, to compete in sophisticated markets that require high-tech, differentiated products. Exporting remains a challenge not only due to lack of initiative or know-how but also external hurdles such as logistics bottlenecks, high transport costs, port inefficiencies, infrastructure gaps, currency volatility, interest rates, and Brazil’s still-recent national trade strategy.