Early harvests in the state show a drop of more than 50% in yields

01/10/2024

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Soy plantation affected by the weather in Mato Grosso — Foto: Sadi Beledelli/Arquivo Pessoal

The start of the 2023/24 soybean harvest in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest producer, is a portrait of the deleterious effects of the adverse climate, aggravated by El Niño, on the crop. The first harvests show crops with production well below the historical average, in some cases less than half of what was expected.

The severe El Niño caused irregular rainfall in producing areas of the Central-West region this season. The lack of rain and the strong heat in October and November led to delayed planting and even replanting in some areas. The situation was a determining factor in the increasingly negative forecasts for production in Mato Grosso, estimated at 43 million tonnes, 5% less than in the 2022/23 cycle, according to the National Supply Company (Conab).

In the Mato Grosso municipality of Sorriso, the bad weather frustrated production on Sadi Beledelli’s property. He harvested 50% of his crops, with a production of 30 bags per hectare, well below the 65 initially forecast. “We’ve never experienced weather like this in the region,” said Mr. Beledelli, who also chairs the local rural union.

Producer Roberto Sviech, also from Sorriso, will start harvesting in the next few days. In recent harvests, his crops have achieved an average yield of 60 bags per hectare, but he expects to harvest only 25 in the first areas to be worked this cycle.

For him, the impact of El Niño in 2023/24 was more negative than that of the 2015/16 harvest, the last season of major losses caused by the phenomenon in the region. “In this cycle, El Niño was so severe that it hurt those who planted earlier and those who planted later,” he said.

Although the harvest outlook is poor for much of the state, some places are still expected to achieve good results. “There are people in our region harvesting 20 bags and others 70. Those who ‘caught’ two rains more have a normal harvest,” said Mr. Beledelli.

Faced with the impact of the weather on soybean sowing in Mato Grosso, at the end of last year the Ministry of Agriculture extended the deadline for planting in the state to the 13th of this month.

“The weather situation started to get critical in October. We haven’t had 60 millimeters of rain in the region in 60 days,” said Mr. Sviech.

In December alone, it rained 300 millimeters less than expected for the period throughout Mato Grosso, according to João Rodrigo de Castro, head of Ignitia Inteligência Climática.

The first soybean harvests in Campo Novo do Parecis, in western Mato Grosso, are also showing low yields and worrying producers. Those who harvest soybeans to plant cotton next have the worst productivity averages, said Bruno Gonçalves, president of the rural union.

According to him, due to the irregular rainfall during the planting period, the average yield in the municipality is expected to vary between 20 and 40 bags per hectare. Much less than the region’s historical average of 53 bags.

“We have reports of producers destroying crops, as the terrible conditions make harvesting impossible,” said Mr. Gonçalves. He projects that 30% of the city’s soybean crop will not be harvested, a scenario that is likely to have an impact on the cultivation of the second yearly crop.

Despite the adverse weather for soybeans grown in the Central-West, as well as parts of northern Brazil, Conab and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) are still predicting a record harvest for Brazil, with 160.1 million tonnes and 161 million tonnes, respectively.

The figure estimated by Conab has already been revised downwards. And given the poor scenario in the country’s largest producer, analysts believe that it could be downgraded again on Wednesday, when the state-owned company releases a new estimate for the grain harvest.

Private consultancies had already become more pessimistic about soybean production in the country, especially because of the situation in Mato Grosso. Whereas before production potential exceeded 160 million tonnes, consultancies such as Pine Agronegócios are now estimating a harvest below 150 million.

The goal is to create measures to help producers at a national level, such as debt rescheduling and the creation of special credit lines for working capital. The ministry is also on the lookout for possible breaches of private contracts between producers and trading companies as a result of lower grain production in this cycle.

(Rafael Walendorff contributed to this story)

*Por Paulo Santos — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/