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The value of what Brazil bought from Russia grew 142% year over year — Foto: Portos do Paraná/divulgação
The value of what Brazil bought from Russia grew 142% year over year — Foto: Portos do Paraná/divulgação

The Brazilian imports of Russian products accelerated at the beginning of this year at a much faster pace than the total of foreign purchases. As a consequence, the Russians, despite being at war with Ukraine, have climbed up the ranks and became, from January to April, the fifth-largest exporter to Brazil. In the same period last year, they were in the 12th position.

China is still the absolute leader in the supply of products to Brazil from January to April of this year, followed closely by the United States. Germany and Argentina come next. Russia, in fifth place, sold to Brazil in the period a total of R$2.4 billion, practically tied in value with India, which comes right after. In relation to last year, the Russians left behind countries such as Korea, Mexico and Japan.

Brazilian purchases from Russia grew 89% from January to April this year in relation to the same period in 2021. Overall, Brazilian imports rose 28% in this same comparison.

Specialists point out that Russia’s current position among Brazil’s five largest suppliers is not permanent, but the result of a scenario that came with the pandemic and was exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war.

The composition of our economic activity and the items Brazil buys from Russia help explain this. Fertilizers or chemical fertilizers are the main ones and account for 70% of the basket. Coal accounts for 15%, while petroleum fuel oils represent 7.1%.

Russia is one of the largest global suppliers of fertilizers. From January to April, Russians supplied $1.65 billion in these items, which represented a quarter of what Brazil imported in the period. The value of what we bought from Russians grew 142% year over year.

The increase in value was driven by prices and purchases brought forward. The prices of fertilizers imported by Brazil jumped 130.7% in April year over year. The data is from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex/ME) and is valid for all the fertilizer we imported that month. However, the input that came from Russia was also more expensive. Data from consultancy MacroSector show that the price of Russian fertilizers that Brazil bought in the first quarter of 2022 increased 149% year over year.

Price increases reflect an increase that had already been happening since the beginning of 2021, said Fabio Silveira, partner and head of the consulting firm. Under the effect of the pandemic, fertilizers became more expensive due to increased demand, shortage of supply and logistical bottlenecks. The war brought even greater fear for the shortage of raw materials.

When releasing April’s trade balance data, Herlon Brandão, Secex’s undersecretary of Foreign Trade Intelligence and Statistics, explained that, according to the agency’s survey, farmers moved up the acquisition of inputs, probably due to fear of shortages, now already under the influence of the war in Eastern Europe. The usual, he explained, is that the import of these inputs increases in the second half of the year.

Mr. Silveira recalled that the robust agricultural production last year created a kind of “euphoria” in the industry regarding the prospects for 2022. The agricultural revenue in 2021, he says, reached R$893 billion, up more than 50% year over year. Capitalized, with high expectations for this year and with fears of a shortage of inputs, farmers have moved up the purchase of fertilizers and pesticides, he said.

Weather issues, he recalled, later led to a reassessment of the 2022 harvest. In spite of that, important crops, such as grains, are expected grow around 3% in volume, he estimated.

Mr. Silveira recalled that fertilizers imported now is likely to be used for next year’s crop, since this year’s is already planted.

José Augusto de Castro, head of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), says prices are expected to remain high and there is no prospect of a greater adjustment, either in fertilizers or in oil as long as the war continues.

For Mr. Silveira, it is possible that in May imports of fertilizers, including from Russia, will remain high. For him, however, demand will not remain at this level, because prices are very high, with a big impact on producers’ costs. In case the account shows that the price of the agricultural product will not allow farmers to pass on costs, the purchase of fertilizers and other inputs will be reduced. Producers will, at least in part, choose to use already fertilized soil from previous harvests, which, in turn, is expected to reduce productivity, he said.

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com

Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires in Brazil, Anatoliy Tkach, demanded an “official expression of solidarity” of the Brazilian government with Kiev and the country’s condemnation of Russia’s “aggression” against its territory.

“We are still waiting for the official expression of solidarity [from the Brazilian government] along with messages in favor of [the Russians] ceasing their aggression,” Mr. Tkach, the most senior Ukrainian diplomat in Brasília, told reporters. “In personal contacts with Brazilian diplomats, we are hearing this solidarity.”

The Ukrainian diplomat’s remarks came moments after the release of a note from Brazil’s Foreign Ministry calling for “the immediate suspension of hostilities and the beginning of negotiations conducive to a diplomatic solution to the issue […] and taking into account the legitimate security interests of all parties involved and the protection of the civilian population.”

The target of a Russian attack by land, sea and air since the early hours of Thursday, however, Ukraine has shown that it expects a more forceful manifestation from the Brazilian government against Moscow.

In the interview, via videoconference, Mr. Tkach mentioned at least four other times this expectation.

“We are in contact with Brazilian authorities and we are expecting Brazil to condemn this Russian attack on Ukraine,” he said. “What we expect from all countries is the condemnation of the attack and help to Ukraine,” he continued, explaining that the country needs both humanitarian and financial aid, fuel, food and armaments.

“We expect the Brazilian government to speak out and condemn this Russian aggression,” he said.

At another point, also asked about the Brazilian position, he replied, “Right now we need strong signals to convince Russia to back down and cease hostilities. [We need] condemnation of Russia’s actions.”

The diplomat then said that Ukraine would like the international community to levy sanctions against Moscow.

Asked what kind of sanctions Brazil could apply, he said, “First, we need a strong signal against aggression.”

Last week, President Jair Bolsonaro was in Moscow for a visit that displeased the United States in particular. In a statement, the White House even said that Brazil seems to be “on the other side of where the global community stands.”

Mr. Tkach said that the Ukrainian government even expressed to the Foreign Ministry the desire that President Bolsonaro also visit Kiev last week, to “balance” the visit.

“We were hoping at that moment that the president of Brazil would visit Ukraine,” he said, adding that there had been talks for a visit of Mr. Bolsonaro to the country since 2019.

In Moscow, Mr. Bolsonaro also expressed “solidarity” with Russia. The diplomat was asked whether this displeased Ukraine.

“We do not know in what context [Mr. Bolsonaro] expressed solidarity. But we do know that during the visit the Brazilian president expressed a desire for a peaceful solution,” he said. “Putin stated [to Mr. Bolsonaro] that he was working for a peaceful solution. But Ukraine knows that the word of the Russian president is worth nothing.”

According to Mr. Tkach, the country has been prepared since 2014 for a “Russian aggression,” it just didn’t know exactly when it would occur. He further stated that there are currently 200,000 Russian troops on the borders with Ukraine and recommended that all Ukrainian citizens who are outside the country stay where they are.

According to him, “before the Russian aggression, massive cyberattacks against websites of the Ukrainian authorities took place.” And he said that the goal of Russian “aggression” is “to seize Ukrainian territory and establish control of the occupation.”

“This is war. It is an attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and a violation of the Charter of the United Nations,” he said. “We are making all diplomatic efforts to end this aggression as soon as possible.”

On another front, also in Brasília, the chargé d’affaires of the U.S. Embassy in Brazil, Douglas Koneff, called for unity and firmness on the part of democratic nations against Russia’s “threat” to the “basic principles” of international law.

“Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and internationally recognized borders is an unprovoked and unjustified attempt to upend the basic principles of international law,” Mr. Koneff said during a news conference.

“We must stand firm and united against such a threat, which violates not only European security, but the security of people across the world. We must remain united to support Ukraine, and the right of all sovereign nations to choose their own paths, free from the threat of coercion, subversion or invasion.”

Mr. Koneff is the top representative of American diplomacy in Brazil since the departure of former ambassador Todd Chapman, who retired in August last year and has not yet been replaced. Democratic activist Elizabeth Bagley has already been nominated by President Joe Biden, but has yet to be approved by the Senate.

As the chargé d’affaires recalled, respect for the territorial integrity of all nations is at the root of the international order. “The U.S. continues to believe that diplomacy is the way for nations to resolve differences. Together with the international community and democratic nations everywhere, we clearly and firmly call for de-escalation and a return to diplomacy,” he said.

In contrast to the main leaders of the West, who immediately condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Jair Bolsonaro remained silent Thursday about the Russian attacks. At the moment that bombings were hitting several regions of the Eastern European country, the Brazilian president went to São Paulo to participate in a motorcycle rally and construction inaugurations. In the evening, when he learned that Vice President Hamilton Mourão had said that Brazil did not agree with the invasion, he discredited the vice president and emphasized that the country’s position is up to the president.

“Article 84 of the Constitution says that the one who speaks on this matter is the president. And the president’s name is Jair Messias Bolsonaro. And that’s it. So, with all due respect to this person who said this, he is talking about something that should not, that is not within his competence,” he complained, during a live broadcast on social media.

Alongside Chancellor Carlos França in the broadcast, President Bolsonaro reiterated what he had said before the worsening of the crisis, advocating peace. However, he avoided opining on the Russian attack.

“We want peace, we traveled in peace to Russia, we made exceptional contact with President Putin, we settled the issue of fertilizers for Brazil. We are dependent on fertilizers from Russia and Belarus,” he said, mentioning the trip last week. “And the most important country in the world is called Brazil, I am president of Brazil. We will do everything in our power for peace. So the one who is talking about these issues is called Jair Messias Bolsonaro, no one else is talking. Whoever is talking is taking a stab at what is not his place.”

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com

Heiko Thoms — Foto: Wenderson Araujo/Valor

The German ambassador to Brazil, Heiko Thoms, made an appeal to the Brazilian government to condemn Russia’s attacks against Ukraine. According to him, as a member of the UN Security Council, Brazil has signed a commitment to act against violations of international law.

“Brazil is one of the largest countries in the world, it is a country that has great weight in the international arena and whose voice is heard. And as it has a seat on the UN Security Council, it is important that it raises its voice in defense of the basic principles of international law,” he told Valor on Wednesday.

According to the German ambassador’s evaluation, Russia’s gesture of recognizing the independence of the self-proclaimed separatist republics in eastern Ukraine is “clearly” an affront to the established peace treaties. The announcement regarding Donetsk and Lugansk was made by Russian President Vladimir Putin himself on Monday.

“We are extremely concerned about Russia’s behavior. Ukraine’s sovereignty cannot be violated, and this is what has happened. In fact, it is a heavy blow against all the diplomatic efforts of the last days, weeks and years,” he said.

He argued that the international community needs to come together now to prevent the conflict in Eastern Europe from escalating. “I believe that great established democracies have to stand together, side by side, they have to support each other.”

The Brazilian government has avoided criticizing Russia. Last week, President Jair Bolsonaro paid a visit to Moscow and said that Brazil was “in solidarity” with that country, a gesture that was harshly criticized by the United States. In a statement on Tuesday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs defended “a negotiated solution”, based on the Minsk Agreements and respecting the principles of the United Nations Charter”.

When asked about the agenda of the head of the Brazilian government, Mr. Thoms said he would not comment on the “chartered course” of the President.

The ambassador, however, praised the sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union and Germany itself, which decided to suspend the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. According to him, the adoption of further measures is not ruled out.

“It is very important to give a warning for Russia to stop. That, apparently, has not worked in the last few days. So, of course, there will be other steps if Russia does not back down,” he said.

Mr. Thoms also said that although diplomatic efforts in recent days have not had the desired effect, the international community will continue to act to prevent a war.

“We will not be intimidated, and we will continue our diplomatic efforts. Regardless of how this conflict unfolds, in the end there will always be a diplomatic solution,” he said.

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com