Trend reflects global portfolio reallocation and shifting geopolitical dynamics
The share of foreign investors in competitive bids for Brazilian companies has risen again as a direct result of the global portfolio reallocation trend and a new geopolitical dynamic, partly driven by uncertainty under Donald Trump’s administration, which has favored emerging markets.
As a result, overseas investors accounted for a larger share of total deals completed in Brazil. Their participation in mergers and acquisitions rose from 31% of the total in 2024 to 41% last year.
That means that, of the R$267.7 billion in M&A deals recorded in 2025, R$110 billion came from foreign acquisitions. Based on the number of deals, the share rose from 26% to 34% in 2025. Of 342 transactions in total, 116 involved foreign buyers.
The trend has been even more evident at the start of this year, which has already seen major cross-border deals. In the first two months of the year, the foreign share reached 76%, still based on the number of transactions, according to data from Dealogic, a consultancy that compiles market data worldwide.
This year, one of the main foreign-related transactions is the sale of aluminum producer CBA, previously owned by Votorantim, to China’s Chinalco and Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto, in a R$4.7 billion deal. Another relevant transaction was the sale of IHS Towers’ tower assets in Brazil to Macquarie Asset Management.
In March, the entry of U.S. fund Warburg Pincus into egg producer Global Eggs, with a $1 billion investment, reinforced the trend. In 2025, highlights included Iberdrola’s increased stake in Neoenergia and the sale of Motiva’s airports to Mexican group Asur.
Shift toward emerging markets
With global volatility, much of it tied to measures taken by U.S. President Donald Trump, and amid a weakening dollar, global capital has been moving toward emerging markets, benefiting Brazil.
That has been more evident in the stock market, where foreign inflows reached about R$40 billion just at the start of this year, already surpassing the total for 2025, when inflows amounted to R$25 billion. The same trend, however, is now beginning to show up in the M&A industry.
“The global portfolio diversification trend, which we have seen more clearly in the capital markets, is now also becoming visible in M&A,” said Flavio Egon de Picciotto, co-head of M&A at Itaú BBA. He noted that investor interest is most visible in sectors such as infrastructure, energy, and natural resources. “Energy remains a driver, always the most representative,” he said.
Foreign participation in M&A talks has not been driven only by U.S. investors, highlighting the search for diversification across geographies. “At the turn of 2025 to 2026, discussions about capital reallocation increased, with flows into emerging markets. The environment of persistent uncertainty increased the weight of diversification. We are also seeing growing interest from European and Asian investors in assets in Brazil,” said Anderson Brito, head of investment banking at UBS BB.
In the breakdown of 2025 cross-border deals, North America accounted for 14.3%, while Europe represented 36.7% and Asia 34%.
Broader interest
Fabio Medeiros, head of Morgan Stanley’s investment banking business in Brazil, said he expects a busier year for M&A activity in the country. “There is a flow heading toward emerging markets, and that is starting to show up in M&A, with companies that might have considered investing in the United States now looking at Brazil,” he said. One of the highlights, Medeiros added, is the appearance of new foreign buyers.
“Brazil is well positioned to attract foreign investment,” he said. In addition to the traditional infrastructure and natural resources sectors, which have historically attracted this type of capital, he highlighted interest in the financial and technology sectors.
Diogo Aragão, head of M&A at Bank of America in Brazil, said the new global dynamic has increased foreign interest in certain segments, such as infrastructure and, more recently, natural resources, with greater concentration in mining, including rare earths. “We are seeing a diversification trend in funding sources, and I think it is here to stay,” said the BofA executive.
Beyond those sectors, he said Brazil’s technology segment also has the potential to attract foreign investors, given that major global players remain underpenetrated in the country. Last year, the main transaction in that segment was the entry of European giant Visma into Brazil through the acquisition of Conta Azul.
Pedro Muzzi of Goldman Sachs stressed that foreign interest in Brazilian assets has been rising, with new names joining the processes. “There is a lot of appetite and interest in Brazil. It is hotter than ever,” he said.
*By Fernanda Guimarães — São Paulo
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com/
