Operations are mainly driven by asset recycling and portfolio reduction

04/18/2024

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Leonardo Cabral — Foto: Leo Pinheiro/Valor

In the operations portfolio of the big banks, transactions linked to the electricity sector have represented a significant weight, especially in terms of financial volume. Financial institutions estimate that the sale and purchase of companies (M&A) will generate at least R$30 billion in 2024 and could reach up to R$40 billion over 18 months.

If this expectation is confirmed, the financial volume has the potential to almost double that recorded in 2023, when mergers and acquisitions in the sector reached around R$20 billion in a year that was lukewarm for transactions in Brazil.

Of the operations that are already on the table, one of great importance is Eletrobras’s thermal power plant package, a process that has already entered its second phase with three interested parties and could be worth around R$8 billion, as anticipated by Valor. Another important one is that of AES Brasil, which has decided to leave the country. One of the interested parties is Auren (controlled by the Votorantim group and CPPIB), which owns 5% of AES—the company even made a binding offer, but it didn’t please AES Corp.

Portugal’s EDP adds to the list. It is trying to sell its hydroelectric plants in Amapá and, at the beginning of the year, re-engaged Bradesco BBI in the process. In the last attempt, the Canadian fund CDPQ made an offer to buy the assets, but the group did not find what it classified as “fair” conditions for the sale.

For the head of Citi’s investment bank in Brazil, Eduardo Miras, the energy sector continues to occupy an important place in the bank’s pipeline in typical portfolio asset recycling operations. “In the electricity sector, unlike other segments, asset recycling is common, even among strategic assets.” That means that companies and financial investors, from time to time, sell assets to look for other opportunities that can bring more return.

In 2023, the bet was on a busier market for the sector, but in the end, the mergers and acquisitions scenario was less than expected in general. As a result, some transactions were postponed due to values that were lower than those anticipated by the sellers. The weaker environment also came in the wake of low electricity prices and a drop in activity across the industry, primarily due to the still high interest rate environment and the local stock exchange having been closed to IPOs for more than two years, damaging financing fronts. Even so, major billion-dollar operations came off the drawing board and marked the year, such as the sale of a 50% stake in eight Neoenergia transmission assets to GIC. Another deal was closed by EDP Brasil, which sold transmission assets for R$2.7 billion to the Actis infrastructure fund.

Given the scenario of lower inflation and interest rates for this year, M&A operations are back on the table and could boost transactions in 2025. According to market sources, there is another impetus. The recent privatization of two giants in the sector, Copel last year and Eletrobras, has put two more companies on the table that were previously practically left out of the M&A scenario but now have no more strings attached to the sale of assets or even new investments in companies. Copel, for example, is receiving proposals for the sale of Compagas, another transaction expected to be completed in 2024.

Mr. Miras, from Citi, points out that the recent fall in the price of energy has acted as an impetus for new conversations since companies are now weighing up options between new investments (greenfields) or M&A strategies, which may make more sense in such a context. The Citi executive also mentions deals involving the oil and gas industry, which are gaining momentum and should accelerate throughout the year.

The breakthrough in this segment came at the end of 2023, when the J&F Group, owned by the Joesley and Wesley Batista brothers, entered the oil and gas sector with the acquisition of Fluxus. In April this year, Azevedo & Travassos bought fields in the Potiguar Basin and returned to oil exploration. More recently, Enauta and 3R signed a merger agreement.

The same heat is felt in Santander. There, operations involving energy and utilities are numerous and account for almost half of the volume if the analysis is based on financial value, said Leonardo Cabral, Santander’s head of investment banking and capital markets in Brazil. The executive points out that operations involving foreign buyers should also gain momentum, given the interest in the sector in Brazil.

In addition, the recent past has shown the strength of the sector and a broad movement of asset recycling. Data from M&A boutique RGS Partners sent to Valor shows that between 2013 and 2023, the electricity sector drove the M&As and capital markets segment in Brazil due to the intense pressure to decarbonize the energy mix with renewable sources, notably wind and solar.

Hugo Pacheco, a partner at RGS Partners, believes that solar distributed generation operations should be the highlight of the year. Recent operations prove as much. Nova Milano, Squared, and Brookfield, for example, have entered the sector with major acquisitions and capital injections.

This is due to regulation changes, which have triggered a “gold rush” in the construction of assets to take advantage of subsidies. Recently completed developments now pass from the hands of the previous owners, who took on the construction risk, to investment funds or consolidators, who prefer to take ownership of the developments without exposing themselves to the construction risk.

“In the regulatory environment, due to the opening up of the free energy market, we are already seeing a major conversion of new consumers to this new energy contracting environment, and we are also beginning to see a movement within some trading companies, which should complete the M&A movement,” Mr. Pacheco said.

Copel, Ibitu, Sterlite, and Enel declined to comment. AES said that its parent company, AES Corp, is assessing alternatives to finance its growth and improve its capital structure. Eletrobras and Cemig did not respond to an interview request.

*Por Fernanda Guimarães, Robson Rodrigues — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/