Delinquency continues to fall, and the portfolio is growing at a moderate pace, but the macroeconomic context can bring challenges

04/29/2024

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Marcelo Noronha — Foto: Ana Paula Paiva/Valor

Large publicly-traded banks are expected to see new profit growth in the first quarter, continuing the trends observed in recent periods: a slight decrease in defaults and moderate credit growth. However, the focus is likely to shift to the institutions’ expectations for the rest of the year. Despite recent guidance, the external environment has become more clouded, particularly regarding the direction of U.S. interest rates, domestic fiscal issues, and the uncertain performance of economic activities, especially in agribusiness.

A survey by Valor, covering nine companies, indicates that Itaú Unibanco, Banco do Brasil, Bradesco, and Santander are projected to achieve a combined profit of R$25.6 billion. This represents a 7.1% increase from the fourth quarter and a 9.5% rise compared to the first quarter of 2023. Itaú is expected to continue setting new records, while Banco do Brasil faces concerns about potential issues in agribusiness. Santander is likely to continue its recovery trajectory from the previous quarter, and Bradesco will remain under scrutiny due to investor expectations about its restructuring process.

Analysts from J.P. Morgan generally believe concerns about defaults are receding. However, they are keen to see the outcomes of renegotiated credit figures, especially with the federal government’s Desenrola program—a federal initiative designed to help individuals renegotiate their debts under more favorable terms. Meanwhile, recent data from the Central Bank shows that credit was slightly weaker than expected in the first quarter. “For loan performance, we anticipate weak trends, despite some improvements in the origination of certain products, such as vehicle financing and payroll loans.”

XP analysts predict that portfolio growth will start slowly and pick up pace in the subsequent quarters. “The first quarter tends to be negatively impacted by seasonality, particularly for individuals.”

Goldman Sachs notes that although revenue trends may be subdued due to slower loan growth and weaker service seasonality at the year’s start, most banks should see a decrease in provisioning levels and a sequential reduction in expenses from the typically high levels of the fourth quarter. “Additionally, net interest income growth should remain strong year-on-year, maintaining resilient average ROEs at 18%.”

UBS highlights that capital generation could be a notable aspect of the quarter. While Itaú is expected to continue with excess capital—having announced an extraordinary dividend payment of R$11 billion in February—Bradesco and Santander might start experiencing some medium-term capital pressure.

Banco do Brasil is expected to report a profit of R$9.4 billion for the first quarter. The state-owned bank had been competing closely with Itaú in recent quarters, but it is now anticipated to be the only one to experience a decline compared to the fourth quarter. Previously, its subsidiary in Argentina, Banco Patagonia, significantly boosted the group’s results due to the peso’s maxi-devaluation, an event unlikely to be repeated to the same extent. Additionally, the very low effective tax rate is expected to increase slightly.

In any case, analysts will primarily focus on agribusiness, a crucial sector for Banco do Brasil (BB). While a significant impact on defaults is not yet anticipated, provisions in this sector may already be on the rise. According to the Santander CIB report, “Although we expect a slight increase in defaults in agribusiness, there should be a reduction in the corporate segment, keeping overall defaults virtually stable in the first quarter. However, we foresee significantly higher provisions year-on-year.”

XP analysts note, “We expect another quarter of robust growth in Banco do Brasil’s loan portfolio, probably aligning with the midpoint of its guidance (8% to 12%), despite recent concerns related to a stronger-than-expected slowdown in the agribusiness sector. BB seems to have managed to navigate this challenging scenario.”

Both BB and Bradesco are expected to face further queries from analysts regarding their strategies for Cielo, which is anticipated to progress in its delisting from the stock exchange in the coming months. Bradesco is expected to report a profit of R$3.9 billion, a sharp increase from the previous quarter, which saw higher provision expenses and an extraordinary R$570 million in restructuring costs, particularly in the branch network. In the first quarter’s financial report, the spotlight was on the announcement of the strategic plan by the new CEO, Marcelo Noronha. The focus now shifts to the initial signs of strategy implementation.

“After several quarters of lower-than-expected results, expectations for Bradesco are already low,” states UBS BB. “The recent improvement in asset quality has likely shifted investors’ focus away from this. We believe the emphasis will be on the dynamics of net interest income after the very weak numbers in the second half of last year, the capital position, and the pace of branch reductions.”

Genial’s analysts believe that although the current results are not very encouraging, the worst is over, and Bradesco’s profitability is expected to improve with the recovery of the credit cycle. “We believe that both the 2024 guidance and the restructuring plan reflect more conservative outcomes, taking into account the lessons learned from several years marked by overly optimistic guidances that failed to materialize.”

In the case of Santander, a profit of R$2.8 billion is projected, supported by a strong recovery both annually and quarterly. This result should benefit from lower provisions and an improved margin with the market, which is expected to turn positive after seven consecutive quarters in the red. While defaults may rise slightly, driven primarily by the performance of the renegotiated portfolio, the pace of provisions is expected to decrease. “Santander will show signs of improvement and solid growth in net income year-on-year, the best in the sector, albeit from a low base,” summarized Bank of America (BofA).

Itaú is set to continue breaking records, with projected profits of R$9.7 billion and a return on equity (ROE) close to 21%. Although negative seasonality in credit cards might slightly dampen the expansion of the portfolio and fee income—given the bank’s leading position in this market—it will not overshadow the overall positive results. “We expect a seasonal increase in short-term delinquency rates, with 90-day delinquency remaining stable. Meanwhile, provisions are expected to decrease by 6% in the quarter,” reported Goldman Sachs.

In a recent report, Citi said that guidance for Itaú’s cost of risk this year seemed too conservative. “Despite an expected reacceleration and higher risk in the portfolio, we believe the continued improvement in default formation could be a positive development throughout the year.”

Finally, Nubank is expected to post a profit of $393 million. BofA estimates that the bank will reach 98.5 million customers, with a 48% expansion of the credit portfolio, but says that profit may end up coming in slightly lower than expected due to the larger investments in Mexico. “We expect provisions to increase by 27% in the quarter, given the continued strong growth in loans, as well as a low comparison base, as the fourth quarter benefited from discounts related to Desenrola,” Goldman Sachs stated.

*Por Álvaro Campos — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/