Arquivos new record - Murray Advogados

2022/23 cycle will start to be planted next Sunday; production will grow 25m tonnes if weather cooperates

09/09/2022

Sowing of another Brazilian soybean crop will begin next Sunday, with all the signs of a new record. If the weather cooperates, as the current forecasts indicate, the harvest should be at least 25 million tonnes larger in the 2022/23 season and exceed the 150 million tonnes mark for the first time, with positive effects on the gross value of agricultural production, GDP and the country’s trade balance.

According to estimates released Thursday by the National Supply Company (Conab), the 2021/22 season totaled 125.6 million tonnes of soybeans, 9.1% less than in 2020/21, because of a strong harvest loss in the South region and part of Mato Grosso do Sul caused by drought. And, according to Conab’s first projections for the new cycle, production will now reach 150.4 million tonnes, in a crop area of 42.4 million hectares, 3.5% higher.

Thus, if in the 2021/22 cycle the flagship of agribusiness in the country represented 46.3% of the total grain harvest even with weather damages, in 2022/23 it will account for 48.8%, according to Conab. Private-sector consultants believe, however, that the volume may be even higher, provided that the influence of the La Niña phenomenon is mild. StoneX, for example, reckons that the planted area will grow 3.9% and, with better yields overall, production will reach 153.6 million tonnes.

“La Niña tends to result in drier weather in the South, which penalized the region’s 2021/22 season. However, the atmospheric phenomenon does not necessarily mean harvest losses, as the record result achieved in Rio Grande do Sul in 2020 shows,” the consulting firm said in a recent report. According to StoneX, planting will advance in all regions of Brazil. Mato Grosso will continue to lead production, and Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná will compete for second place.

After the waiting period, which is mandatory to prevent the spread of pests and diseases, the sowing will be released on October 11 in Paraná and Rondônia. In states like Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo, the green light comes on October 16, and farmers in Goiás will go to the fields on October 25. In Rio Grande do Sul, the waiting period will end only on October 10.

Although production costs have increased significantly, mainly due to higher fertilizer prices, the persistently high soybean prices in the international and domestic markets prop up the projections of higher production. In the Chicago exchange, the main reference for prices in this market, the benchmark second-position future contract is up more than 8% in 12 months, almost 43% in 24 months and around 60% in the last three years.

Sustained by firm global demand, mainly for the production of poultry and pork feed – and especially from China – these high prices are reflected in the gross value of agricultural production of the crop. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, production will reach R$350.6 billion in 2022, down 10.8% from 2021, because of the harvest loss, but the second-best result ever, up 123% from 10 years ago. And, as prices are steady, one can expect an advance proportional to the harvest in 2023.

Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of soybeans. And exports are expected to resume growth next year after a drop caused by lower availability in 2022. According to the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove), this year shipments of the grain will total 76.8 million tonnes, down 10.8% from 2021. Yet, revenues will grow 16.3% to $44.9 billion. Conab expects shipments of 92 million tonnes in 2023, while revenues are expected to exceed $50 billion.

*By Fernando Lopes — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

Total production of 271.4 million tonnes is expected for 2022/2023

08/25/2022

A soy farm in Brazil: production of the oilseed will reach 150 million tonnes in 2022/23 — Foto: Anna Carolina Negri/Valor

The Brazilian production of grains is expected to hit a new record in the 2022/23 crop, according to the first projections of the National Supply Company (Conab) for the season, released on Wednesday.

Driven by the increase in the area and good profitability of soybean, corn, and cotton crops, the harvest may grow 13.5% and reach 308 million tonnes, despite the increase in production costs — if, of course, the weather is favorable.

If the projection is confirmed, it will be the first time that the Brazilian grain harvest will exceed 300 million tonnes. More than 90% of the volume, or 294.3 million tonnes, will come from soy, corn, cotton, rice, and beans.

For the 2021/22 harvest, Conab estimates a total production of 271.4 million tonnes, with some crops still being closed, such as corn, wheat, and cotton.

According to the state-run company, soy production will reach 150.36 million tonnes in 2022/23, 21% more than in 2021/22, and a new record. Even with higher costs, the attractive prices of oilseeds in the international market are expected to stimulate a 3.5% increase in the area, to 42.4 million hectares.

The productivity of the 2022/23 cycle may also recover after the drought that affected the South region and part of Mato Grosso do Sul earlier this year.

With better crop yields and higher production volumes, Conab believes that soybean exports will grow 22.2% and reach 92 million tonnes in 2022/23, another record — Brazil leads the global production and exports of the grain.

With the advance of soybeans, the area planted with corn is also expected to grow in the second crop of the 2022/23 cycle and contribute to a total production estimated at 125.5 million tonnes, an increase of almost 10% over 2021/22.

For the second yearly crop, an 8.2% increase in harvested volume is expected, to 94.53 million tonnes. In the first harvest, the area is expected to fall 0.6%, estimates Conab, and production may reach 28.98 million tonnes.

In the case of cotton, the state company indicates a harvest of 2.92 million tonnes (7% more than in 2021/22), with increases in area and productivity. It is also expected a resumption of exports to a level close to 2 million tonnes.

The scenario is supported by good fiber prices defined in anticipated sales, which guarantee good profitability for the activity. But the uncertainties about the world economy, with the possibility of a recession in some countries and a decrease in demand, keep the segment on alert.

Rice and beans have similar scenarios projected by Conab, with a slight reduction in area and production adjusted to demand — and normality as far as domestic supply is concerned. The crops are impacted by the good profitability of “rivals” soy and corn.

The production of rice in the 2022/23 harvest is likely to be around 11.2 million tonnes, Conab said. The bean harvest tends to follow close to 3 million.

Conab also released its projections for the meat market, which will again face tight margins with the increase in costs driven by still firm corn prices.

Even so, Brazil may slaughter 30.1 million head of cattle in 2023, up 2.7% year-over-year. The increase is due to the movement made by cattle breeders to retain cows in recent years.

With a larger herd, beef production is likely to grow 2.9%, with the beginning of the process of culling cows in the livestock cycle. This way, exports tend to grow 5% next year. The per capita consumption in Brazil may see a slight increase and reach 26 kilos per inhabitant per year.

Poultry slaughter may increase by 3.2% in 2023, to 6.29 billion chickens. Foreign sales may fall 1.7% and stand at 4.5 million tonnes. The combination of these factors will result in a probable increase in domestic supply of 4.2%, raising per capita availability above 51 kilos per inhabitant per year, Conab projected.

The opening of new markets for Brazilian pork, such as Southeast Asian countries and Canada, is likely to mitigate the fall in exports to China, where the pig herd is recovering after a sanitary crisis.

The tendency for 2023, according to Conab, is an increase of 6.7% in slaughtering, but there will be no increase in the production of protein because of the lower average weight of the animals, due to the high costs of feeding the herds.

*By Rafael Walendorff — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

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