Macrofiscal Bulletin is expected to endorse official growth projection of 2.5% for this year
07/18/2024
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Fernando Haddad — Foto: Leo Pinheiro/Valor
The Ministry of Finance is unlikely to make any major changes to its new macroeconomic projections, according to a source consulted by Valor on Wednesday. The figures will be released this Thursday by the ministry in the Macrofiscal Bulletin.
The Macrofiscal Bulletin is important because it serves as a guide for the preparation of the federal budget and the calculations of the spending freeze—necessary for the federal government to comply with the spending limit established by the fiscal framework and the primary result target.
The economic team was working on a total expenditure freeze of R$10 billion. The official figure will be released on Monday in the revenue and expenditure assessment report.
According to the source, the tendency is for the document not to bring “major news” and to follow a “more parsimonious scenario”. Currently, the Ministry of Finance projects a GDP growth of 2.5% for this year and 2.8% for next year.
On Tuesday, President Lula said that “if the money we put into circulation in this country is circulating, we will grow by more than 2.5%” in 2024.
The statement was made at a meeting with representatives of the food industry at the Planalto Palace, where the executives announced investments of R$120 billion by 2026. Of this total, R$23 billion was already invested last year.
At the same event, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad also said that it is “likely” that the ministry’s official projection for this year’s GDP growth will be revised upwards.
“We’re always parsimonious because we don’t want to suffer setbacks. But everything indicates that, even with the calamity in Rio Grande do Sul, which affected a state that accounts for almost 8% of Brazil’s GDP, the economy hasn’t stopped growing. Even with the external lockdown, the concerns about the Fed, the repercussions on our Central Bank here, the economy continues to grow,” he said.
On Tuesday morning, after a meeting with Mr. Haddad, the president of the Brazilian National Bank of Social Development (BNDES), Aloizio Mercadante, also said that the Finance Ministry would need to recalculate its projections upwards.
“For the BNDES, we’re going to have greater growth than what has been projected so far,” he said, citing the expansion of both approvals and disbursements of credit operations carried out by the institution.
In the case of inflation indicators, the Ministry of Finance’s respective projections for 2024 and 2025 are Brazil’s benchmark inflation index IPCA of 3.7% and 3.2%; National Consumer Price Index (INPC) of 3.5% and 3.1%; General Price Index – Internal Availability (IGP-DI) of 3.5% and 3.4%.
*Por Estevão Taiar — Brasília
Source: Valor International