Escalating conflicts involving Lebanon and Iran could increase shipping costs and affect trade routes for Brazilian exports

10/07/2024

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One year after the extremist group Hamas attacked Israel, sparking the war in Gaza and fueling another wave of violence in the Middle East, Brazil’s agribusiness exports face a new challenge in the region. The rising tensions, with Lebanon and Iran now involved in the conflict, could lead to logistical hurdles, resulting in increased costs.

“Last year, freight costs to the region rose by 15% to 20%, but prices returned to previous levels as tensions eased. Now, with a new crisis, we could see a similar increase,” said Michel Alaby, a consultant and regional director of the São Paulo State Chamber of Commerce (CAESP).

According to Maurício Palma Nogueira, an executive of Athenagro, a livestock consultancy, the situation could become even more complicated if other countries such as Russia, the U.S., or China become involved. “So far, there’s nothing indicating issues of that scale, but the scenario is somewhat more tense. The chances it becomes a regional war are higher.”

The Gaza war, now a year old, did not affect agribusiness exports to the region. From January to August of this year, Brazil exported $11.9 billion to Arab countries, a 22% increase compared to the same period in 2023. Exports to Israel reached $316.2 million, remaining practically stable, according to data from the Agrostat platform.

Meat, the main export item from Brazil to the region, grew in volume and revenue. Brazil exported 24,500 tonnes of beef to Israel, a 22% increase, while 1.5 million tonnes of meat (beef and chicken) were shipped to Arab countries, a 19% increase compared to 2023.

According to Ricardo Santin, president of the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA), the industry has been preparing for various scenarios since Hamas’s attacks on Israel. “This volume reflects the fact that alternatives had already been created when the conflict began, anticipating a potential escalation,” he said.

Instead of traditional routes through the Mediterranean, ships departing from Brazil for the Middle East have been circumnavigating Africa and unloading at ports in Turkey and the Persian Gulf, or traversing the Panama Canal as an alternative to the Suez Canal in Egypt. As a result, the journey time to the region has increased to 60 days from 30-35 days.

Mr. Santin added that around 5% to 10% of exports still follow the standard route via the Suez. He noted that the more than 20% growth in shipment volume is within industry expectations. “This volume isn’t due to the war; it’s a normal market consumption increase that has been happening as forecast,” he added.

Mr. Alaby said that Brazil holds a privileged position in supplying animal protein to Arab countries, especially in times of war. “Today, Brazil is the world’s leading producer of halal meat [which complies with Muslim precepts]. This is a sine qua non condition for purchasing animal protein,” he said.

Another factor contributing to the positive export performance is that the main destinations for animal protein, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq, are not directly involved in the conflict. Together, these three countries account for about 22% of Brazil’s chicken exports.

As for beef, Arab countries and Israel represent 18.2% of Brazil’s total beef exports. From January to August, 24,500 tonnes were shipped to Israel, a 23% increase, and 304,000 tonnes to Arab countries, an 83% increase compared to the same period last year. The Brazilian Meat Exporting Industries Association (ABIEC) declined to comment on the matter.

In the case of the soybean complex, Brazilian exports to Israel fell by 15%, totaling 214,160 tonnes in the first eight months of this year. Exports to Arab countries dropped by 18% to 2.4 million tonnes during the same period, according to Agrostat. Considering soybean alone, exports to Israel rose by 4% from January to August, reaching 168,300 tonnes, while exports to Arab countries dropped by 6%, reaching 2.2 million tonnes.

The Brazil-Israel Chamber of Commerce, when approached, noted that “commodities have always been the most traded products between Brazil and Israel” and that “there are difficulties with freight due to route changes for security reasons.” However, “Israel’s key product, technology, continues to advance, as moments like these create new opportunities.”

(Cibelle Bouças contributed reporting from Belo Horizonte.)

*By Cleyton Vilarino, Globo Rural — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/