Although exports of those nine products to the U.S. fell by $375.5 million, shipments to other countries rose by a combined $1.25 billion in August and September compared to the same months last year.

This rebound was driven primarily by shipments of unroasted coffee and frozen boneless beef to alternative markets. Export revenues also benefited from higher prices for both products.

Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) data show that coffee exports were redirected mainly to European countries such as Germany and the Netherlands, as well as Japan. Beef exports increased sharply to China and the Philippines.

Exports of both products also surged to Mexico, a U.S. neighbor that could be serving as a gateway to the American market. In August and September, Brazil’s frozen beef exports to Mexico nearly quadrupled (up 292.6%), while coffee exports rose 90% compared to the same months of 2024.

The analysis of the 20 top export products was conducted by Lia Valls, an economist and professor at Rio de Janeiro State University (UERJ) and a researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Economics at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV IBRE), in collaboration with Valor, using SECEX data. The list includes items affected by both Mr. Trump’s 50% tariff and Section 232 tariffs, which target steel and aluminum, based on research by the Institute for Industrial Development Studies (IEDI).

These 20 products accounted for 29.3% of all Brazilian exports to the U.S. in August and September, including those not subject to the new tariffs.

Varying impacts

Ms. Valls noted that the tariff hike had a wide range of effects on different goods. “The data show a reconfiguration of markets, but some products are still facing more complex situations,” she said.

Among the 20 main products hit by the tariffs, Brazil increased exports of six to the U.S., though at a slower pace than to other markets. For the remaining five, exports to the U.S. rose while shipments to other countries grew less or fell. As a result, the U.S. share of Brazil’s exports of these 20 products dropped from 28% in August and September 2024 to 21.4% this year.

The U.S. share of Brazil’s overall exports also fell, from 11.6% to 9% in the same comparison.

However, not all redirected exports were able to fully recover lost revenue, said Rafael Cagnin, chief economist at IEDI. He pointed to one of the most important items affected by the tariffs: semi-manufactured iron or steel products. Shipments of these items to the U.S. totaled $360.5 million in August and September, down 19.4% from a year earlier, a $86.7 million drop in revenue.

Meanwhile, exports of the same items to other countries rose 36%, totaling $127.2 million—a $31.5 million increase that was not enough to offset the losses in the U.S. market.

Revenue gains were also only partial for other major export categories to the U.S., such as prepared foods and preserved beef, and electric transformers.

Coffee and beef lead gains

Among the 20 products analyzed, unroasted coffee and frozen boneless beef stood out for more than offsetting the drop in U.S. exports.

Brazil’s frozen boneless beef exports to the U.S. fell 58%, a $90.9 million loss in revenue. But shipments to other countries soared 70% in the period, generating an additional $1.16 billion.

Unroasted coffee exports to the U.S. dropped 11.3%, or $27.52 million, while exports to other countries rose 9.1%, generating an additional $155.3 million in revenue. The comparisons cover August and September of 2025 versus the same months in 2024.

Coffee and beef are among Brazil’s key exports to the U.S., but they were less affected by the tariff hike, said Mr. Cagnin. “That’s because these products are not heavily dependent on the U.S. market, making it easier to redirect shipments and still exceed what was needed to make up for the losses,” he said. “And both products are benefiting from favorable pricing trends—coffee prices are rising, and so are beef prices.” That, he added, gives exporters more leverage in price negotiations even as they adjust their destinations.

China stood out as the top alternative market for frozen beef. After the tariffs were imposed, the U.S. share of Brazil’s beef exports dropped from 8.6% in August–September 2024 to 2.3% in the same months of 2025. China’s share rose from 58.8% to 67.2%, with a sales increase of 81.8%. Exports to Mexico grew even more—up 292.7%—though from a smaller base. Mexico’s share rose from 1.5% to 3.6%.

“Exporters are exploring new markets beyond the U.S., and China is capitalizing on this,” said José Augusto de Castro, president of Brazil’s Foreign Trade Association (AEB). “While Brazil looks to diversify its exports due to the tariff hike, China is expanding its share of global imports. We’re hitting export records for meat, and China is taking that in, just as it did with soybeans in the past.”

Rising China dependence

Mr. Cagnin warned that increasing dependence on China, especially for meat exports, is a concern. “Brazil is already highly reliant on the Chinese market when you look at overall exports,” he said.

He also pointed to products that saw export declines both to the U.S. and to other countries, including diesel engine parts, plywood from other wood types, and alternative cane and beet sugars.

“These trends highlight the need to reduce dependency on the U.S. and expand to new markets, such as the European Union and South America,” he said. “The deeper shift brought by the tariff hike is that the U.S. can no longer be seen as a reliable partner.”

Interestingly, some tariffed products still saw growth in U.S. exports. Ms. Valls highlighted rubber tires used in buses and trucks, which surged 417.3%. Exports of bulldozers and angledozers rose 66.2% and 707%, respectively.

For Mr. Castro, this could be due to Brazil’s role in supply chains or intra-company trade. Ms. Valls added that some items were listed under specific codes in the U.S. exemption decree, which may allow room for classification debates and open up opportunities to continue exporting those products.

*By Marta Watanabe — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com