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The potential of offshore wind energy – Magnus Commodities

A decree published by the federal government on the main guidelines for offshore wind projects in Brazil was well received by players in the electricity sector, who said it may unlock investments.

The main point is related with the assignment of the use of physical spaces and natural resources for this type of renewable generation. As previously reported by Valor, giant companies like Shell and Iberdrola are looking to Brazil because of its power generation potential but were waiting for a more secure regulatory environment.

The decree 10,946/2022 says that the Ministry of Mines and Energy must issue complementary rules by June 15, 2022. Experts and international entities say that the measure removes the legal and regulatory risk and helps projects in the Brazilian seas to get off the drawing board.

In a note, the ministry said the decree aims to fill the gap identified by public institutions, companies, experts and organizations of a regulatory framework for the exploration of offshore electric potential in Brazil, especially related to issues about the deployment and the concession model.

For Abeeólica, the trade group that represents the sector, the decree is a crucial advance so that Brazil can unlock investments and deploy offshore wind farms with security for investors, government and society.

“In a sector that is taking its first steps, this security is key, so that companies, society and government know what the technical criteria, requirements, study obligations are, and the agencies that will be responsible for analyzing, approving and formalizing the progress of each stage of the projects, which are more complex than onshore wind farms,” said Elbia Gannoum, head of the association.

Ben Backwell, CEO of the Global Wind Energy Council, said Brazil has virtually unlimited offshore wind resources and wind power companies have already filed for permits for projects totaling 46 gigawatts. This represents an opportunity to meet the growing demand for energy, develop green hydrogen projects, and create large amounts of investment and skilled jobs.

“This decree brings clarity and certainty that the wind power industry needs to move forward and continue to develop large-scale projects off the coast of Brazil, while the authorities prepare a comprehensive system for licensing areas, as well as competitive auctions and other mechanisms for capturing offshore wind power,” he said.

The forecast is that by 2050 Brazil will reach an installed capacity of electricity generation by offshore wind of nearly 16 GW, if there is a 20% reduction in capex from this source, according to the National Energy Plan 2050.

Although the decree is considered an advance for legal and regulatory security, the energy partner of law firm Lefosse, Pedro Dante, questions the feasibility of these projects in the short term and considers it premature to say that all issues are properly addressed and resolved.

“Due to the still high costs of offshore plants, it is still not possible to say that this type of energy source will be competitive in the short term, there is a natural competition in relation to price with renewable energy sources that are already in the consolidation phase in the country, such as solar power and onshore wind power itself,” says Mr. Dante.

Lawyer Rodrigo Machado Santos, a partner at Madrona Advogados, said that the decree was the right choice, since the legislation already deals with the assignment of areas and commercialization of electricity.

“It seems there is no need for a legal framework for additional regulation, especially because offshore generation does not mean a new type of generation, but simply involves issues such as ownership over the areas – which is already provided for in law.”

Source: Valor international

https://valorinternational.globo.com/

The Brazilian Government reduces energy load requirement for entry into the Free  energy Market, starting in the second half of 2019 | Viridis

The free power market, a segment in which consumers with high demand negotiate directly with generation companies and traders, may generate R$6.3 billion in investments in 10 years to draw customers, a projection by consultancy Thymos Energia made at Valor’s request shows.

The cost for companies to draw consumers who want to migrate from the regulated market to the free power market is higher than R$1,000, the consultancy said. However, the value is expected to fall to only R$100 as a result of a digitalization drive.

The calculation is based on the number of potential consumers that can migrate from the regulated market to the free market. In Brazil, there are about 87 million consumers. However, Alexandre Viana, a partner and head of consulting at Thymos, believes that about 63 million will change to the free market.

“The cost of drawing customers multiplied by the number of consumers who can migrate to the free market is equal to R$6.3 billion in investments in 10 years, excluding other injections that may come from generation and services,” he said.

The consultancy’s survey outlines a conservative, a baseline and an aggressive scenarios for electricity consumption and projects that the free power market will account for almost 73% of the total load of the National Interconnected System (SIN) in 2035, compared with 35.4% now.

This scenario takes into account that as of 2024 the free market will open fully to all consumers of high voltage, as proposed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), and THAT in 2026 the opening follows for low-voltage consumers.

“In 2035, this curve will stop growing because low income, public services and rural [clients] will have more difficulty migrating and will remain in the regulated market,” Mr. Viana said.

Bills in Congress on the modernization of the electric sector and regulations can speed up the migration of consumers, the executive added.

As for businesses, some power trading companies no longer want to only buy and sell energy and are expanding their operations by offering services to consumers and generation companies.

This is the case of 2W. With an eye on the liberalization of the market, the company is increasing the supply of renewable power to sell on the free market with the construction of two wind power farms, and has set aside funds for the acquisition of new customers.

“We see a more liberal market in the second half of this decade. For this, it is key to have generation assets so that we are not in the middle of the chain having to buy power from a generation company to sell it to the customer…We have R$150 million for customer acquisition cost to be able to tap the market and sell electricity from these farms,” CEO Claudio Ribeiro said.

Tradener follows a similar path. The company sells about 800 average megawatts and serves between 20% and 30% of its customer portfolio with its own generation. CEO Walfrido Avila said that the investment relies on better market conditions.

“We have 400 MW of projects, but we will do this in tandem with the economy. The interest rates are very high right now. This is bad for financing and this hinders investments,” he said.

For Alexandre Lopes, vice-president of the Brazilian Association of Power Trading Companies (Abraceel), this is a trend since the sector has been driving competitiveness in companies for more than 20 years and the expansion of the electric system.

“The free market has become the flagship of the expansion of electric power generation in Brazil, responsible for more than 70% of the plants under construction, mainly of renewable origin, aligned with national public policy and the global energy transition.”

Source: Valor international

https://valorinternational.globo.com/