Government officials and analysts said the steep drop in imports reflects the expected economic slowdown, though the magnitude seen in January is unlikely to persist throughout the year.

Imports fell 9.8% in January, while exports declined 1%. As a result, even with the wider surplus (up from $2.3 billion in January 2025), overall trade volume shrank. Total trade reached $46 billion, down 5.1% from a year earlier, according to data released by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) at the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (Mdic).

Herlon Brandão, director of statistics and trade studies at Secex, noted that the volume of exports in January matched that of January 2025, a record year for shipments. On the import side, he said a slowdown is expected in 2026 due to “likely weaker growth in domestic demand and the broader economy.”

Brandão said import declines are likely to recur this year, though not necessarily to the extent seen in January.

José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), said the depth of the import drop was surprising, driven by a 15% fall in intermediate goods. This category accounts for roughly 60% of Brazil’s total imports. Fuel imports also fell 21.5%, and capital goods slowed, with a modest increase of 1.1%, according to Secex.

Economist Lucas Barbosa of AZ Quest said the data are consistent with a slowdown in domestic demand. “High interest rates have weighed on investment, and industrial output data has been weak, especially in more cyclical sectors,” he said.

According to Brazil’s national statistics agency IBGE, industrial production dropped 1.2% in December from November. From September to December 2025, output declined 1.9%.

A notable exception, Castro said, was consumer goods, whose import value rose 11.9% in January compared to the same month in 2025.

Chinese cars

Secex data show that this increase was largely due to Chinese car imports, which totaled $374.9 million in January, more than ten times the $31.7 million from January 2025. Excluding Chinese automobiles, Brazil’s consumer goods imports rose just 1.5%.

Passenger cars stood out among January imports, totaling $564 million, more than double the $274 million a year earlier. About 65% of those vehicles came from China.

Barbosa of AZ Quest said the trade balance remains resilient and expects another strong year for Brazilian foreign trade, projecting a $75 billion surplus in 2026, up from $68.3 billion in 2025.

“Brazilian exports continue to show strength not just in volume, but also in price,” he said. Beef exports remain strong, with revenue up 42.5% in January from a year earlier. Prices rose 10.8%, amplifying a 28.6% increase in volume.

Gold exports also stood out, reaching $820 million in January, up from $404 million a year earlier. It was Brazil’s ninth most exported product for the month, with prices up 75.8% and volume rising 15.4%.

Soy exports saw a significant increase of 91.7%, supported by a 9.2% gain in prices and a 75.5% surge in volume.

Not all commodities benefited from favorable prices. Oil and iron ore—the country’s top two export products—fell by 7.8% and 8.6%, respectively. Oil declined in price, while iron ore saw drops in both price and volume.

Trade with key partners reflected recent global shifts. Economist André Valério of Inter noted that January continued the trends seen since the implementation of higher U.S. tariffs, with a 25.5% drop in exports to the United States.

Even so, Brazil’s trade deficit with the U.S. was just $670 million in January, helped by a 10.9% fall in imports of American goods, a shift not seen in previous readings.

Exports to China jumped 17.4%, reflecting a gain in market share, especially in Brazilian agribusiness, which has taken advantage of a gap left by U.S. producers amid tensions between the two countries.

“Even after the U.S.–China agreement, in which China pledged to resume soybean purchases from the U.S., there has been no reduction in Chinese appetite for Brazilian soybeans. This suggests Brazil’s market share gains could prove long-lasting,” Valério said.

*By Mariana Andrade, Guilherme Pimenta and Marta Watanabe — Brasília and São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/