Survey shows imports may enable capital expenditure of R$35bn in projects
08/25/2022
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Industry foresees a “race for the sun” this year, as consumers are expected to join now to use the grid free of charge by 2045 — Foto: Pixabay
Imports of solar equipment to supply the markets of distributed generation (own generation) and centralized generation (large-scale farms) have risen 100% year-over-year in the first half of 2022, a survey with 1,600 companies linked to the sector found.
This can enable capital expenditure of R$35 billion in the entire project cycle and represents an installed capacity of nearly 10 gigawatts-peak. The data was released by Greener, a consulting company specializing in studies about the solar power market, during the event Intersolar South America.
“We had a strong acceleration in volumes in the first half of the year, with more than 100% growth in equipment arriving in Brazil, especially photovoltaic modules, which indicates an investment of more than R$35 billion. Distributed generation is the main driver of this growth,” Marcio Takata, a director at Greener, told Valor.
The study also found a slight decrease in prices. The previous survey pointed to an 8% increase in solar panel prices due to freight costs, commodity prices and exchange rates.
Now the prices of photovoltaic systems have cooled by 4.3% for the final consumer due to cheaper freight costs, the stronger real, growing competition in the domestic market and the larger number of equipment distribution companies as a result of the sector’s growth.
“Unlike three years ago, Brazil is now among the main markets. This brings competition in manufacturing and distribution. Today, there are more than 200 distribution companies in Brazil. Not so long ago, there were at most 20 companies,” he said.
The return on investment has also dropped to four years. An average residential system in Brazil costs R$19,500 for 4 kWp, compared with R$20,600 a year ago. The reduction in the discounts for distributed generation installations as of 2023 should change this situation, since the industry foresees a “race for the sun” this year, as consumers are expected to join now to use the grid free of charge by 2045.
The change in the rules for solar generation associated with the increasing interest of power consumers in reducing costs has driven growth. “This shows that distributed generation is a competitive solution for consumers, even though electricity bills [in general] have dropped due to the reduction of the state tax [ICMS],” the executive said.
On the other hand, the high interest rates held financing back. About 54% of sales were financed, compared with 57% in the previous survey. Mr. Takata bets that despite pressured production chains, the solar power industry should maintain strong growth in the coming years.
*By Robson Rodrigues — São Paulo
Source: Valor International