Industry grew 2.2%, while service sector expanded 1.3%

09/02/2022

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Result was above the median of Valor’s estimates — Foto: Edilson Dantas/Agência O Globo

The June quarter was one of expansion for the Brazilian economy. GDP grew 1.2% compared to the first quarter, seasonally adjusted, data unveiled Thursday by the Brazilian statistics agency IBGE show.

The result was above the median of Valor’s estimates — from 75 consultants and banks — which pointed to a growth of 0.9% in the second quarter compared with the first one. The projections ranged between 0.3% and 1.8%. A group of 34 respondents bet on rates equal to or higher than 1%.

In a year-over-year comparison, GDP expanded by 3.2% in the period, while analysts surveyed by Valor foresaw a 2.8% growth.

IBGE also revised the GDP for the first quarter of 2022, which grew 1.1% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. The institute had previously reported a 1% growth in the period.

On the supply side, the industry grew 2.2% in the second quarter, compared to the first, a result above the expected expansion of 0.9% calculated by Valor. Compared to the first quarter of 2021, the industry increased 1.9%. The median projection, according to Valor, was 0.4%.

The service sector expanded 1.3% in the second quarter, compared to the previous one. The average estimate calculated by Valor was a high of 0.6%. Compared to the second quarter of 2021, there was an increase of 4.5%. In Valor’s survey, a growth of 3.7% was expected.

Agriculture grew 0.5%, below the average projection of a 2.7% increase calculated by Valor. The industry was down 2.5% year-over-year. The median expectation of the market, according to Valor, was an increase of 1.1%.

On the demand side, household consumption increased by 2.6% on the second quarter of 2022, compared to the first quarter of the year, seasonally adjusted. Valor’s expectation was a 1.1% growth. Compared to the second quarter of 2021, the indicator had an increase of 5.3%. In this case, financial firms estimated an increase of 3.6%.

Government demand fell 0.9% and the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, a measure of investment in machines, construction and innovation) rose 4.8% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

Economists consulted by Valor estimated an increase of 0.3% for government consumption and an increase of 2.5% for GFCF within the GDP.

Compared to the second quarter of 2021, there was an increase of 0.7% in government consumption and an increase of 1.5% in GFCF. The expected projections were 2.1% and -1.2%, respectively, according to Valor’s survey for the year-over-year growth.

The investment rate reached 18.7% of GDP in the second quarter of 2022.

According to IBGE, exports fell 2.5%, while imports rose 7.6% in the second quarter of 2022, compared to the first quarter.

Consultants and financial institutions heard by Valor expected, on average, that exports would drop 1.1% and imports would rise 6.7%.

*By Lucianne Carneiro, Alessandra Saraiva, Anaïs Fernandes — Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/