The median estimate from 26 consultancies and financial institutions surveyed by Valor Data expected a 0.6% decline in the period
11/10/2024
Core retail sales volumes dropped 0.3% in August compared to July, in seasonally adjusted terms, according to the Monthly Survey of Trade (PMC) released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) on Thursday (10).
The decline was smaller than anticipated, as the median estimate of 26 consultancies and financial institutions polled by Valor Data was a 0.6% drop, with projections ranging from a 1.8% fall to a 0.2% rise. In July, core retail sales had advanced 0.6% compared to June.
Year-on-year, core retail grew 5.1% compared to August 2023. The sector has shows a 4% increase in the 12 months through August and a 5.1% rise in 2024.
The 5.1% gain year-on-year was higher than expected. The median forecast was a 4.1% rise, with projections ranging from a 2% to 5.7% increase.
Core retail’s nominal revenue remained stable in August compared to July. Year-on-year, it rose 9.8%.
Sales declined across most of the core retail sector in August, with seven of the eight activities surveyed by the PMC reporting drops compared to July.
PMC data also show that five out of eight activities saw year-on-year growth compared to August 2023. Overall, core retail grew 5.1% in this comparison.
From July to August, the following segments experienced declines: personal and household goods (-3.9%); books, newspapers, magazines, and stationery (-2.6%); office, IT, and communication equipment (-2%); furniture and appliances (-1.6%); textiles, clothing, and footwear (-0.4%); fuels and lubricants (-0.2%); and hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages, and tobacco (-0.1%).
The only positive outlier was the pharmaceuticals, medical, orthopedic products, and cosmetics segment, which grew 1.3% between July and August 2024.
Year-on-year, core retail grew 5.1% from August 2023, with a 4% increase in 12 months and a 5.1% rise in 2024 — Photo: Gabriel de Paiva/Agência O Globo
Rate is the lowest for a quarter ending in October since 2014, IBGE says
12/01/2022
Result was below the July quarter, of 9.1% — Foto: Marcelo Camargo/ABr
The unemployment rate in Brazil was 8.3% in the October quarter. The result was below the previous quarter, which ended in July (9.1%), and also below the result of the same period in 2021 (12.1%), the National Household Sample Survey (Pnad) Continuous released on Wednesday by the statistics agency IBGE shows. It is the lowest result for a quarter ending in October since 2014 (6.7%).
The result was below the median expectations of 24 consultants and financial institutions consulted by Valor, which pointed to a rate of 8.5% in the quarter ending in October 2022. The figure was also below the floor of the projections, which ranged from 8.4% to 8.7%. In the September quarter, the rate was 8.7%.
The number of workers without a formal contract in the private sector reached a new record: 13.4 million people, with an increase of 2.3% compared to the immediately preceding quarter and 11.8% compared to the same quarter of 2021 (1.4 million more workers).
According to the coordinator of Work and Income of IBGE, Adriana Beringuy, the drop in the unemployment rate is the result of the combination of the continued downward trend observed since mid-2021 and seasonal factors, since the labor market typically improves at the end of the year.
The trajectory of market recovery started in July 2021, recalls Ms. Beringuy, is linked to the progress of the vaccination against Covid-19, and also to the resumption of face-to-face activities, such as services.
The election may also have helped the labor market in the period, according to her, because there was an increase in the number of workers in segments such as other services and information, communication and financial, real estate, professional and administrative activities, which may include people involved in the electoral campaign.
“People who work in electoral campaigns can appear in the other services segment (within associative services, if hired by parties to distribute flyers and propaganda, for example) and also in the information and communication segment — if outsourced,” she said.
Ms. Beringuy clarified that although it is not possible to specifically measure the number of workers in these groups who are involved in election-related activities, it is clear that there has been an increase in the number of people employed in those segments.
The number of workers employed in information, communication, financial, real estate, professional and administrative activities grew 2.8% in the October quarter, compared with the immediately preceding quarter (324,000 more people). The number of people employed in other services, on the other hand, advanced by 4.5% (232,000 people). In the labor market average, the increase was lower, at 1%.
In the three months through October, the country had 9 million unemployed — people aged 14 or more who looked for a job but could not find one. The number indicates a contraction of 8.7% compared with the previous quarter, which ended in July (860,000 fewer people), and a drop of 30.1% compared with the same period in 2021 (3.9 million fewer people). It is the lowest number of unemployed people since the quarter ended in July 2015.
Between August and October, the employed population (employees, employers, civil servants) rose to 99.7 million people, a new record since records began, in 2012. This represents an increase of 1% compared to the period between May and July (1 million more people employed). Compared to the same quarter in 2021, it rose 6.1% (5.7 million people).
The labor force — that is, people aged 14 and older who are employed or looking for a job — was 108.7 million in the October moving quarter, a statistically stable level compared with the previous moving quarter ended in July and up 1.7% compared with the same period last year (1.8 million more people).
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