Tenders for BR-040 and the Litoral Paulista Lot PPP are expected to generate R$9 billion in investments

04/01/2024

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The market ended 2023 on alert after the cancellation of the auction of BR-381 in November, due to a lack of proposals — Foto: Alberto Ruy/MInfra

The highway concessions market will be tested in April, when two important auctions are scheduled, involving construction work estimated at R$9 billion. The federal auction for BR-040, connecting the cities of Belo Horizonte and Juiz de Fora, in Minas Gerais, is scheduled for the 11th. On the 16th, the São Paulo state government plans to carry out the bid for the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) for the Litoral Paulista Lot.

The highway sector is uncertain about the level of investor interest in the new projects being structured. The market ended 2023 on alert after the cancellation of the auction of BR-381 in Minas Gerais, in November, due to a lack of proposals. However, analysts point out that it was a particularly challenging and troubled project, and the scenario is not likely to recur in the April auctions. Both bids are expected to attract offers, but the level of competition remains uncertain.

“The market is tough but BR-381 is an outlier. The BR-040 southern stretch is attractive; more than nine companies have visited it. It is an asset with an interesting return and good traffic volume,” said Marcos Ganut, managing partner at Alvarez & Marsal.

He added that the project has challenges due to the highway’s characteristics, including a high flow of trucks, which demands high maintenance costs. “However, the balance between construction work, operational costs, and traffic risk is positive.”

The BR-040 concession runs from the capital of Minas Gerais to Juiz de Fora and provides for R$5 billion in construction work. Operating costs are estimated at R$3.53 billion, over the 30 years of the contract. The winner will be the competitor offering the biggest discount on the toll fee.

Among potential interested parties are companies such as CCR, Pátria, EPR (Equipav and Perfin), and Ecorodovias, as well as construction companies.

The auction is also emblematic because it brings a partial solution to the imbroglio surrounding the re-tendering of Via040, an Invepar concession that went wrong and is being returned to the government to be handed over to a new operator.

Invepar has been trying to return the concession since 2017, but only in 2020, it managed to sign the re-tender contract. A new auction was expected to be held by 2022, but the process faced a series of delays. In 2023, the court had to guarantee that Invepar would continue operating the route until the re-tender. However, the auction will not completely solve the problem as it does not include another stretch of Via040, from Belo Horizonte to Goiás, that is yet to be re-bid.

Although the project is linked to the re-bidding, the reading is that it should not pose a legal risk to the auction because the invitation to tender has detached the two processes, says Lucas Sant’anna, a partner at Machado Meyer.

The second auction scheduled for April, involving the Litoral Paulista Lot PPP, on the coast of São Paulo, has also faced ups and downs in recent years, but the expectation is that it will now be successful. “The private sector is familiar with and has studied these stretches for a long time. There should be interested parties,” Mr. Sant’anna said.

In the PPP, which involves R$4.3 billion in construction work, part of the funds will come from the government, which will pay the concessionaire an annual consideration of up to R$199 million per year. The winner will be the group offering the biggest discount on the amount. Should any interested parties offer a 100% discount, bringing the consideration to zero, the dispute will be defined by the largest grant.

The Litoral Paulista project was initiated by the São Paulo government in the past administration, which was unable to get the auction off the drawing board due to resistance from the municipality of Mogi das Cruzes, which is crossed by the tendered stretch. The solution found by the current administration was to transform the contract into a PPP, which allowed to reduce the toll rate and the criticism around it.

Ecorodovias is one of the groups analyzing the bid. The company has a special interest in the project as it currently operates the Anchieta-Imigrantes system, connecting the capital city of São Paulo to the coast, and whose demand competes in part with highways in the new lot. The market reading is that the company will likely try to ensure its hegemony on the route. CCR, EPR, and Starboard (which debuted in the sector in 2023 by winning the Rodoanel Norte auction) are also seen as possible competitors.

When contacted, Ecorodovias said it watches “with interest the concession programs announced by federal and state governments to evaluate opportunities.” CCR said it “analyzes all opportunities on the three platforms on which it operates, selectively.” EPR said “it has a habit of evaluating opportunities in the sector.” Starboard and Pátria did not comment.

While the market expects the April auctions to be successful, analysts pointed out that the scenario for highway tenders in 2024 will be tough, due to the high volume of new concessions currently being structured by governments.

“There may be an excess of lots in the calendar. On the one hand, there are multiple project profiles, which can attract newcomers. However, there is concern that the sector will not be able to handle so many bids. The April auctions will be a good barometer”, Rodrigo Campos, partner at Vernalha Pereira Advogados, said.

According to Mr. Ganut, the current scenario for attracting new investors to highway concessions is not optimistic. “It is not easy. Although Brazil’s economic fundamentals are good, the attractiveness for investors is limited. One issue is the return on projects measured in dollars. Furthermore, in recent years we have experienced changes in rules, which brings uncertainty,” he added.

*Por Taís Hirata — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/