Gap between borrowing and lending rates hit 18.85 percentage points in May, marking the narrowest margin since July 2022

15/07/2024

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Alessandra Ribeiro — Foto: Leonardo Rodrigues/Valor

The banking spread in Brazil, the premium that financial institutions add to loans, has dipped to its lowest point in nearly two years. Yet, the fluctuating interest rate landscape casts shadows over the sustainability of this trend.

In May, the average banking spread, which gauges the disparity between the rates financial institutions charge on loans and the rates at which they acquire funds, was recorded at 18.85 percentage points. This is a significant drop of 3.13 points from May of the previous year, marking the commencement of the decline and representing the lowest figure since July 2022. The Central Bank reports that this reduction occurred both among legal entities, where spreads decreased by 1.21 points to 8.4, and individuals, where they dropped 4.45 points to 23.86.

This shift is largely attributed to changes in the composition of credit issued post-pandemic, with a tilt towards safer, lower-interest loans. “Since the end of 2022, banks have become slightly more selective,” noted Rafael Schiozer, a finance professor at Fundação Getulio Vargas.

A shift in credit allocation priorities is evident, with a pronounced focus on options like cash credit cards and financing for durable goods or vehicles. Central Bank data reveals a 41.3% increase in vehicle purchase credit this year alone.

Alessandra Ribeiro, director of macroeconomics and sector analysis at Tendências Consultoria, attributes the significant reduction in the individual banking spread partly to a decrease in default rates, which dropped from 4.2% in May last year to 3.7% in the same month of 2024.

She points to improved labor market conditions and the Desenrola Program (the government’s debt renegotiation program), which facilitated debt renegotiation, as crucial contributors to this trend. “The decline in defaults, combined with a robust job market, lowers the perceived risk,” Ms. Ribeiro noted. “This, in turn, enables banks to mitigate the risk priced into their rates, fostering a reduction in the spread.”

Another factor contributing to the reduced spreads was the series of cuts in the Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, by the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM). From August 2023 to May, the benchmark interest rate decreased to 10.5% from 13.75%, measured annually. However, the uncertain future trajectory of the Selic, influenced by an unpredictable external environment, fiscal instability, and President Lula’s criticisms of the Central Bank, casts doubt on the continued narrowing of the spread.

The reduction cycle paused in June, and according to the latest Focus survey, market projections hold that the basic interest rate will stay at the current level of 10.5% through year-end. Earlier in the year, projections anticipated the Selic would close at 9%.

“The future of the spread hinges somewhat on the stabilization of long-term rates,” said Mr. Schiozer. “If investors believe that President Lula’s actions have minimal impact on monetary policy and that fiscal policy will remain stable, long-term rates are likely to decrease, encouraging banks to embrace more risk. Conversely, if the situation worsens or remains unresolved, banks may become more cautious.”

Rubens Sardenberg, director of economics, prudential regulation, and risks at the Brazilian Federation of Banks (Febraban), said that the medium-term trajectory of the banking spread “heavily depends on how the macroeconomic scenario unfolds.”

Conversely, Bruno Lavieri, chief economist at consultancy 4intelligence, argues that keeping the Selic rate stable at its current level through the year’s end “wouldn’t impede” the narrowing of the spread. He suggested that the spread “seems more influenced by banks’ risk aversion rather than the broader economic cycle.”

“The outlook is for the spread to continue its downward trend, though at a gradual pace, given that defaults, particularly among individuals, have also been decreasing slowly,” Mr. Lavieri added.

In addition to cyclical shifts, structural measures aimed at reducing the banking spread have been intensified since the administration of former President Michel Temer. These efforts include updates to the positive credit register, the launch of open finance, and the establishment of a new legal framework for guarantees. “We’re not stationary; we are making progress, but it’s a long-term journey,” noted Mr. Sardenberg of Febraban.

The current economic team under President Lula views the spread in Brazil as being driven primarily by two factors: default rates and the profit margins of financial institutions. The Ministry of Finance estimates that reducing the impact of these two factors on the spread by half would equate to a permanent 5-percentage-point reduction in the Selic rate.

Furthermore, to enhance overall credit access for legal entities, the economic team is promoting two legislative measures. The first (14,905/24), ratified by President Lula in late June, standardizes the regulations for lending outside the traditional banking system. The second (2,925/23), aimed at safeguarding capital market investors from accounting fraud, is currently pending in Brazil’s Lower House, the Chamber of Deputies. Analysts anticipate that these measures will enable companies to secure more affordable credit from the capital market despite the persistently high banking spread.

A third, broader factor that the Ministry of Finance considers a potential reducer of the banking spread for companies is the tax reform on consumption. The Ministry asserts that the new regulations will permit borrowers to reclaim taxes incorporated into transactions, effectively lowering the margin.

Ms. Ribeiro, from Tendências Consultoria, expresses skepticism about the reform’s direct influence on reducing the spread but acknowledges a possible indirect impact. According to her, enhancing the tax system could boost productivity and competitiveness, which in turn would affect growth potential and employment. This improvement could lower risk perception, ultimately impacting the spread. “We see more potential through this indirect route,” she noted.

*Por Estevão Taiar, Gabriel Shinohara — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/