Emmanuel Macron’s reelection as president of France for the next five years means continued French resistance to the European Union-Mercosur free trade agreement on its current terms. What might change depends more on what will happen in the October presidential election in Brazil.

This is the assessment of Professor Gaspard Estrada, executive director of the Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (Opalc) at Sciences Po University, in Paris. He notes that in the debate between Mr. Macron and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen last week, this was reflected when both mentioned “chicken from Brazil”.

Ms. Le Pen complained about “a whole series of EU policies that I disagree with,” citing “the multiplication of free trade agreements in which German cars are sold, sacrificing farmers to competition from Brazilian chickens or Canadian meat.”

To which Mr. Macron retorted: “What chicken from Brazil?”, recalling that he had “opposed” the EU’s agreement with Mercosur because “when we ask things of our farmers, we ask the same thing of the other side.”

“We refused to move on this issue because there was no respect for the Paris Agreement commitments, respect for biodiversity and [also] we fought against imported deforestation,” Mr. Macron said.

In this scenario, notes Mr. Gaspard, “until there is a real change in the Brazilian environmental policy, it will be difficult for the implementation of the EU-Mercosur agreement to prosper.”

The professor notes that environmental policy is part of a general political change “and this can only happen with an alternation of power, because the Bolsonaro administration has shown that it will not change its environmental policy and that France is not on its radar.”

He mentions the public squabbles between the two presidents, when Mr. Bolsonaro spoke ill of Mr. Macron’s wife and the occasion when he refused to receive the French Chancellor, Jean-Yves Le Drian, claiming he had to go to the barber.

“What can unlock the knot on the EU-Mercosur agreement is a political agreement between leaders,” he adds. “We must not forget that the conclusion of the agreement was announced with Messrs. Bolsonaro and Macron in power, and before the political problems. Everything can also end with agreement, but for that you need to have people at the table with the will to make agreements.”

For Mr. Gaspard, if Mr. Lula da Silva is elected, “there will be an important change in the bilateral relationship, a relaunch of the strategic partnership”. He recalls that last year, Mr. Lula da Silva was received by Mr. Macron at the Élysée Palace with a head of state protocol. And that, a few days before the French election, Mr. Lula da Silva made a statement of support for Mr. Macron to defeat the far-right.

Once the impasse between Brazil and France is overcome, Europe’s very relationship with Latin America in general could improve, Mr. Gaspard believes. He notes that Ms. Macron has never visited the region in his five years in office, with the exception of his participation in the G-20 in Buenos Aires.

He notes that there is a lack of interest in Latin America on the part of European capitals. Now the Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez is trying to return to the region, but more forceful and ambitious initiatives are still needed. Without France or Germany, it is difficult to go ahead with larger rapprochement projects.

For Mr. Gaspard, in the context of the strategic rivalry between the United States and China, France and Latin America have everything to increase their strategic partnership – and profit from it.

Source: Valor International

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