Second stage of offer had R$110bn in orders until last week; low price, inflated orders, Equatorial behind high market interest
07/15/2024
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The book-building period for the second phase of the offer for Sabesp ends this Monday — Foto: Victor Moriyama/Bloomberg
With a relatively low share price, the second phase of water utility Sabesp’s privatization has seen strong demand in the financial market. At this stage, the São Paulo state government intends to sell 17% of the company to the market through a dispersed offer. Demand exceeded R$110 billion in orders at the end of last week, according to people familiar with the matter. The amount is inflated as there is an expectation of sharing among interested investors. Real demand is expected to be around R$30 billion, sources say.
Despite strong demand, the price per share is expected to be R$67, or 19.42% below the closing price at the end of Friday’s trading session, at R$83.15. The amount will likely be the same as that offered by Equatorial, in the first phase of the offer—under Sabesp’s privatization model, the proposal for the first phase should be a cap for the second stage, according to people involved in the process.
As a result, the amount to be received by the São Paulo state government in the second phase should be R$7.9 billion. The amount adds to the R$6.9 billion offered by Equatorial, which will become the company’s primary shareholder with 15% of the capital. The total amount raised should be around R$14.8 billion, through the sale of 32% of the shares. The state government, which currently controls the company, will hold 18% of Sabesp’s capital.
The book-building period for the second phase of the offer ends this Monday. The pricing of the shares will only be confirmed next Thursday, and the offer will be settled next Monday.
After that, the antitrust watchdog CADE will have time to assess the operation before Equatorial is officially confirmed as a primary shareholder. A source close to the company sees no potential problem in the antitrust regulator’s analysis but points out that the estimated deadline is up to 60 days. Only then will Sabesp be able to appoint a new board members and executive officers and start a 100-day plan to carry out the first internal changes to the company’s management.
The first phase of privatization, completed on June 28, received only one proposal from a group interested in becoming a primary shareholder. Equatorial, in addition to holding 15% of the business, will have the power to appoint the chair and other strategic positions. The group will not be able to sell its shares until 2029. The 17% offered in the second phase has no such restriction.
According to market sources who spoke under the condition of anonymity, the high demand in the second stage of the process is not only due to inflated orders but also due to a large gap in price compared to the current share trading level. Furthermore, investors welcomed Equatorial as a primary shareholder.
Among those interested in becoming minority shareholders are large foreign and domestic funds with a longer-term investment profile, sources say. Among the groups interested in taking on a relevant stake in the company is Perfin Infra, which planned to participate in the Aegea consortium to become a primary shareholder, had the operator submitted a proposal, according to one source.
People familiar with the process expect share prices to be reduced shortly after the offering, due to a gap between the privatization value and the current trading price. However, in the market, the expectation is that the privatization will generate a significant increase in Sabesp shares’ value in the long run.
In reports by Citi, UBS, Itaú BBA, Bradesco, and XP between May and June, Sabesp’s target price exceeded R$100. The reports have not yet been updated to reflect the recent offer results but the amounts already captured expected advances with privatization, mainly related to the implementation of a new regulatory model, which will allow greater gains and more predictability for shareholders’ financial return.
*Por Fernanda Guimarães, Taís Hirata — São Paulo
Source: Valor International