The drought in the South of Brazil, which has caused losses in crops in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, made the National Supply Company (Conab) on Tuesday to reduce its estimate for harvest of grains and fibers in 2021/22, to 284.39 million tonnes. Last month, when forecasts were positive, they were at 291.07 million tonnes.
Still, if the new number is correct, the harvest will be 12.5% higher than in 2020/21, with 252.79 million tonnes. This is supposed to happen because the planting area, already defined in the summer, grew 4.5% between the seasons, to 72.11 million hectares.
In the case of soybeans, the increase in area was 3.8%, which will probably guarantee a record-breaking harvest, even with the crop failure in the southern states. Conab’s projection is now for a harvest of 140.5 million tonnes, compared to 142.8 million last month, but 2.3% higher than in 2020/21.
For summer corn, whose estimates were for a recovery of production due to good prices, the forecast now is for a harvest of 24.8 million tonnes, only 0.3% higher than in 2020/21 and 14.7% lower than forecast last month.
Putting together the three crops of grain, the estimate is that the country will harvest 112.9 million tonnes in 2021/22, 29.7% more than the last cycle, when the main crop (winter) was punished by drought.
In the case of rice, whose production is concentrated in Rio Grande do Sul, the state company continues to estimate a production of 11.4 million tonnes because most crops are guaranteed with irrigation. This estimate represents a decrease of 3.2% compared to 2020/21.
For beans ¬— which also have three crops per season in Brazil — the expectation is a growth of 7.2%, to 3.08 million tonnes. This result is due to the expected increase in average yields for crops, which, like corn, were also severely affected in 2020/21 by drought and frost. In comparison with the previous report, Conab cut the estimate by 1.7% due to the problems in Paraná.
For cotton lint, Conab forecasts a harvest of 2.7 million tonnes, 14.8% more than last season and 3.7% more than last month’s forecast.
Finally, Conab made a downward correction in the projections for wheat, which has just been harvested. The agency now forecasts a harvest of 7.7 million tonnes, from 7.8 million last month. This figure represents an increase over the 2020/21 result of 23.2%, but a drop compared to initial estimates that topped 8.6 million tonnes.
Source: Valor international