Companies announced cuts in trips in November due to a lack of aircraft

23/01/2024

---

Congonhas Airport in São Paulo, one of the busiest and most profitable in the country, is expected to see a smaller reduction in the number of flights offered by airlines — Foto: Maria Isabel Oliveira/Agência O Globo

As airlines reduced the number of seats, passenger traffic slowed even more in December than it did before the pandemic. In the last month of last year, 8 million passengers were transported, down 10.1% compared to the same month in 2019, according to data published on Monday by the National Agency of Civil Aviation (ANAC).

With this result, the domestic market extended the decline reported last November. In that month, there were 7.6 million passengers, a decrease of 6.3% compared to the pre-pandemic period.

In mid-November, Brazilian airlines announced a reduction in their supply forecasts due to delays in aircraft deliveries and a lack of spare engines. The tight supply chain scenario is expected to continue until 2024. At the same time, airline Gol’s financial challenges could further shrink the market.

In 2023, Brazilian civil aviation handled 112.6 million passengers, the best annual result since 2020, although still 95% of the total handled in 2019. Compared to 2022, the result represents an overall 15.3% increase.

In the domestic market alone, there were 91.4 million passengers in 2023, 11.2% more than in 2022, while the international market totaled 21.2 million passengers, an increase of 37.5% on the same basis.

Domestic demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), increased by 3.7% compared to December 2022. Meanwhile, seat supply, measured in available seats per kilometer (ASK), decreased by 1.3%. Compared to December 2019, demand and supply were reduced by 5.4% and 2.8%, respectively.

On the international market, demand increased by 17.2% compared to December 2022. Supply increased by 12.5%. The international market is also lower than before the pandemic: in December, demand fell by 1.7% while supply was cut by 2.1%.

In December 2023, domestic cargo handled 43,100 tonnes, 5.9% more than in the same month in 2022. International cargo handled 69,300 tonnes, 2.2% more than in December 2022.

The crisis of Gol, which is mulling over a court-supervised reorganization in the United States to resolve its high debt, could complicate life for consumers. This is because the airline, once the leader, is now the second largest in the domestic market—it has a share of around 30%, behind Latam. A possible legally-backed debt restructuring could lead to an even greater reduction in the company’s supply.

Bank BTG analysts have already signaled that a worsening of Gol’s crisis would be an opportunity for Azul to grow in the market. This is because the overlap of routes with Latam today is mainly in busy hubs such as Congonhas and Guarulhos in São Paulo, Santos Dumont in Rio, and Brasília. These more profitable routes are expected to see a smaller reduction in supply.

*Por Cristian Favaro — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/