The government’s fiscal goal is a balanced primary result—revenues equal to expenses—with room for a deficit of up to R$31 billion.

In 2024, the government received R$72.4 billion, driven by extraordinary dividend payouts from Petrobras and the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES). That figure, in nominal terms, is second only to the record R$87 billion in 2022, more than half of which came from the oil giant, based on National Treasury data tracked since 1997.

As of October 2025, the latest month with available data, the government had already received R$38.1 billion in dividends. It expects another R$14.3 billion to come in during the last two months of the year, reaching the R$52.4 billion target published in the latest Bimonthly Revenue and Expenditure Report, which updates the government’s fiscal projections.

Dividend revenues were higher in 2024 due to early and extraordinary distributions by state-owned firms, explained Alexandre Andrade, director at the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI). “At the end of 2024, in November and December, Petrobras and BNDES paid R$29.1 billion in early and extraordinary dividends. Over the full year, those exceptional payments totaled R$38.1 billion,” he said. “In 2025, these are expected to reach just R$10.9 billion.”

Oil prices also played a role in the decrease in Petrobras payouts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an average barrel price of $80.52 in 2024, compared to $69.70 this year through November, affecting the company’s profit and thus its dividend distribution.

Banco do Brasil also paid less in dividends this year, in part due to weaker results. The government lowered its original revenue estimate from the bank by R$1.5 billion.

New record

Even with the drop, 2025 is set to deliver the third-largest dividend haul in the Treasury’s records. The main contributors remain BNDES and Petrobras.

So far in 2025, Petrobras has paid R$12.5 billion to the federal government. On Monday (22) the company said it would make another transfer of R$1.3 billion, related to second-quarter 2025 profits. This will bring the total for the year to R$13.8 billion, still below the R$29.7 billion paid in 2024.

BNDES, meanwhile, transferred R$16.1 billion in dividends through October 31. It has not disclosed whether additional payments were made in November or December. In 2024, the bank paid R$29.5 billion to its controlling shareholder, the federal government.

Next in line is Caixa Econômica Federal, which paid R$5.11 billion this year. These payments included interest on equity based on 2024 results, remuneration on hybrid capital and debt instruments (IHCD), and profit distribution from the first half of 2025. The bank said it does not expect further payments by year-end.

Banco do Brasil had paid R$3 billion through October, according to the Treasury. The bank did not confirm whether additional transfers were made in the final two months. Other contributions came from various smaller state-owned and mixed-capital enterprises.

GDP slowdown

These dividend transfers have helped the government offset a decline in tax revenue from administered taxes, which underperformed in the second half of the year as the economy began to slow. Administered taxes include revenues from taxes and social contributions.

Publicly, Finance Ministry Executive Secretary Dario Durigan has defended using dividends from state-owned banks to strengthen the federal fiscal position and avoid mandatory budget freezes.

“We have no issue using bank dividends to support the bimonthly report, as long as it’s done in a planned manner,” Durigan said in a press conference in September. “If needed, we will use dividends from public companies to deliver on fiscal policy,” he added.

“Undoubtedly, this revenue [from dividends] has been important to close the government’s accounts and meet fiscal targets. This was especially true in 2024 and is likely to happen again in 2026, though to a lesser extent given the fiscal consolidation required and adverse conditions such as economic slowdown and falling oil prices,” said Tiago Sbardelotto, a fiscal economist at XP Investimentos.

For 2026, the proposed Annual Budget Bill (PLOA) forecasts R$54.1 billion in revenue from dividends and profit-sharing, in line with 2025 projections. Sbardelotto expects Petrobras and Banco do Brasil to maintain similar payout levels next year, while BNDES may increase its transfers.

By Jéssica Sant’Ana — Brasília

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/