Of that total, about R$10 billion could come from the Annual Budget Law, with another R$5 billion from the Export Guarantee Fund, using resources left over from the first phase of the program. The issue is still under discussion by government teams.

The debate is taking place amid a broader discussion within the government over a package of measures to mitigate the effects of the conflict, especially on fuel prices and the sectors most exposed. One alternative under review is to increase subsidies for diesel producers and importers through a new provisional presidential decree, or MP.

MP No. 1,340/2026 set a subsidy of R$0.32 per liter, with an estimated fiscal impact of R$10 billion for the federal government through extraordinary credit, an expense that falls outside the spending cap but is counted toward the primary balance target. If that option moves forward, the cost could rise through an increase in the subsidy amount via a new MP adjusting the current parameters.

Government officials believe there is enough revenue to fund this package of measures, especially given the increase in tax collection linked to higher Brent crude prices, without the need to declare a public calamity.

Teams have been monitoring developments on a daily basis in a scenario marked by high volatility abroad, amid the conflict in the Middle East, and its effects on the domestic market, in order to calibrate possible measures. Brazil Sovereign Plan 2 may be announced before the broader package or at the same time. The final decision will rest with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The government is also betting on reaching an agreement with state governors. As Valor reported last week, the states have reservations about the federal government’s proposal to cut to zero the state value-added tax on goods and services, or ICMS, on imported diesel and have begun discussing an alternative based on direct subsidies for importers. The issue was discussed on Friday (20) in a meeting between state finance secretaries and National Treasury Secretary Rogério Ceron.

Under that model, each state would grant the subsidy to the importer, with a partial reimbursement later made by the federal government, in a cost-sharing arrangement with half borne by the states and half by the federal government. The states agreed to draft a structured proposal along those lines, while the economic team agreed to formalize a compensation model.

The subsidy amount is still being studied by the states, but talks have included an estimated cost of R$2 billion a month for each side — states and federal government.