Corporate sector yet to experience turnaround cycle, key for investment growth

04/01/2024

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Credit concessions to families, more closely linked to consumption, have been growing at a more vigorous pace than those related to debt consolidation, a trend that has strengthened since the beginning of the year. Some economists believe this will be an important factor in boosting the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) throughout 2024.

In January, free credit for individuals associated with consumption increased twice as much as that linked to debt: 14.4% compared to 7.1% in the same period in 2023. A survey conducted by PicPay economists categorizes lines of credit for the acquisition of goods (such as vehicles), cash cards, installment cards, and installment loans as consumer credit, and overdrafts, non-consolidated personal loans, and revolving loans as debt credit.

“They are not separate things; the division has intersections. However, it’s a way to differentiate credit lines that are more aligned with consumption logic from those linked to expensive debt,” said Marco Caruso, PicPay’s chief economist.

Brazil’s Central Bank has raised its credit growth projection for 2024 from 8.8% to 9.4%, according to the quarterly Inflation Report for March, released last week. The growth in free credit for individuals increased from 9% to 10%, while for companies, it rose less significantly, from 7% to 7.5%.

In the minutes of its March meeting, also released last week, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) noted that credit, alongside income, has acted to mitigate the slowdown in activity recently and mentioned “the credit cycle in the recovery phase” as one of the factors that should lead to “resilient consumption.”

Mr. Caruso recalls that, after an initial decline in both categories following the outbreak of the pandemic, credit linked to consumption recovered in the second half of 2020 and surged until mid-2021, as families increased their savings and shifted consumption from services to goods.

“Consumption took the lead, but at a certain point, perhaps due to an overemphasis on consumption and also with the ongoing pandemic, the debt portion grew excessively,” said Mr. Caruso.

The share of credit linked to consumption decreased from the second half of 2021, but the growth in credit linked to debt increased, peaking at the beginning of 2022. “That year was a revelation. We saw people taking out costly loans to cover daily expenses,” said Mr. Caruso.

Throughout 2022, both categories were declining, “either because, from the demand side, people were overly indebted, or because, from the supply side, banks were applying the brakes,” the economist recalled. Since mid-2023, however, while the portion of credit more closely associated with debt continued to shrink, the consumption portion stabilized and then began to increase, creating what economists call an “alligator mouth” in comparison to the other indicator.

“It’s as if the house has been put in order by both families and banks and now we’re witnessing the beginnings of a resurgence in confidence in both taking out and offering credit. It appears to be a more favorable environment for household consumption and credit,” said Mr. Caruso.

Now, total credit concessions are about 30% higher than pre-pandemic levels, according to PicPay, but for consumption, they are 89% higher, and for debt, 55% higher.

That aligns with the broader macroeconomic scenario, Mr. Caruso notes. “We have cuts in the Selic rate that are beginning to reflect in the interest rates for individuals, providing a first relief. And we are seeing improvements in default rates,” he added.

Mr. Caruso also highlights the lower burden of household income devoted to debt, though, for now, this is more due to the reduction in the principal (the initial amount of the debt) than to a drop in interest rates themselves. “We’re observing an improvement in income and in people’s capacity to repay their debts, which aligns well with what we’re seeing in the job market and workers’ earnings. The main story is still not so much about interest rates, which are now starting to improve as well,” said Mr. Caruso.

Furthermore, PicPay’s economists note that this cycle of relief in defaults has been quicker than in other difficult periods, such as at the end of 2015. “That was a much more challenging time, with GDP falling by more than 3%,” Mr. Caruso recalled.

In 2023, GDP grew by 2.9%, and for 2024, the expectation is that it will increase by 1.85%, according to the median of the estimates in Focus, the Central Bank’s survey of market participants. However, financial institutions have raised their projections, in part, precisely because of the signals emanating from credit.

Itaú Unibanco has updated its GDP forecast for 2024 to include a more optimistic outlook for credit concessions, particularly to individuals and for housing, raising its projection from 1.8% to 2%. According to BTG Pactual, credit data from January suggests that the anticipated acceleration will occur sooner than expected. BTG now forecasts a 2.3% increase in Brazil’s GDP for 2024.

“Credit will never be the savior of Brazil’s GDP because it is pro-cyclical; it only starts to pick up after GDP has already begun to move. However, it acts as a bolster, a catalyst for activity. If a person was going to consume ‘x’ without credit, with credit, they could consume ‘2x’,” Mr. Caruso explained.

Igor Cadilhac — Foto: Gabriel Reis/Valor

The prospects are much more favorable this year, especially for credit related to the purchase of durable goods, such as vehicles, notes Igor Cadilhac, an economist at PicPay. “It’s challenging to predict whether this improved macro scenario will ultimately enhance debt repayment, i.e., to what extent people will actually pay off their debts,” Mr. Cadilhac mused. “But today, the outlook is promising.”

For February, a survey by the Brazilian Federation of Banks (FEBRABAN), using consolidated data from the country’s major banks, shows a 0.5% growth in the total balance of the credit portfolio compared to January, driven by loans to families.

LCA Consultores forecasts an 11% growth in the balance of free credit to individuals in 2024, according to analyst Michael Burt. “What underpins this projection, besides the fall in the Selic rate [Brazil’s primary monetary policy instrument used to control inflation], is a unique moment in the credit market, characterized by a large number of people being banked, having access to checking accounts and other products,” said Mr. Burt.

He notes that despite the recent cycle of interest rate increases, the level of lending to families has remained historically high. Mr. Burt attributes that to the growth of digital banks and the resulting access to new products and banking relationships, such as the cash credit card. “People start with this one card and then graduate to other products. That boosts consumption,” he stated.

Mr. Burt cautions that, although it is decreasing, the rate of individual defaults remains high, and should there be any setbacks in the macroeconomic scenario, such as reduced economic activity growth, more persistent inflation, or less monetary easing, these defaults could increase again.

Igor Barenboim, chief economist at Reach Capital, anticipates a GDP growth of around 2% in 2024, with credit contributing approximately 1% to this growth.

The problem, according to him, is that this “turning point in the credit cycle” for individuals is not being extended to companies. That, for example, diminishes the chances of potential GDP growth in Brazil, Mr. Barenboim notes. It also does not aid in investment.

Credit, when offered under adequate conditions and used responsibly, is a “powerful lever for economic growth,” as it enables economic agents to realize their projects presently, states the Institute of Industrial Development Studies (IEDI) in its most recent letter.

“Brazil’s credit conditions remained unfavorable for boosting economic activity throughout most of 2023,” he noted. “However, by the end of the year, there were initial signs of improvement, which may become more robust,” he added.

For short-term GDP, the quality of credit that families are taking out matters less, Mr. Barenboim explains. “Ultimately, it’s spending; it’s going to finance consumption. However, in the medium term, it might not be incredibly beneficial. And the challenge will be to approach the election year with these levers already somewhat expended,” he said.

*Por Anaïs Fernandes — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/