Amount is more than double Vale’s investment per year; businesspeople criticize Central Bank

06/21/2024

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Ricardo Nunes — Foto: Leo Pinheiro/Valor

Maintaining the Selic policy interest rate at 10.5% per year for as long as necessary to reduce inflation, as indicated by the Central Bank on Wednesday (19), would cost companies billions of reais and could affect long-term investments when businesses are slowly resuming industrial and commercial activities.

Although businesspeople understand the reasons for the end of the rate-cutting cycle, as they see inflationary control as key and have openly criticized the Lula administration’s fiscal laxity, keeping the rate at this level brings a financial cost to companies of over R$78 billion per year, according to estimates made by Paramis Capital for Valor.

The total stock of corporate debt linked to the CDI (the interbank deposit rate, used as an investment benchmark in Brazil) is currently at R$743.2 billion and, with a 10.5% per year Selic, the impact on companies reaches R$78 billion per year. The amount is equivalent to more than double the investments planned by Vale in 2024 and 70% of the average to be allocated annually by Petrobras from 2024 to 2028.

If the policy interest rate could end the year at 9%, as the market had estimated less than six months ago—before concerns about inflation increased and the government eased its discourse on austerity in public accounts—, the cost to companies would be R$66.9 billion, or R$11.1 billion lower than the current impact.

With the Selic at 9.5%, the interest rate burden would be R$70.6 billion annually, R$7.4 billion lower than the current impact. Brazil has the world’s second-highest real interest rate, only behind Russia. That hinders funding and postpones projects by companies carrying debt linked to the CDI—most of them.

For Ricardo Nunes, the head of credit investments and wealth at Paramis, Selic above 10% could delay projects and slow down companies’ growth. Trade associations and businesspeople have echoed the concerns, criticizing the end of the Selic cutting cycle and uncertainties in the fiscal and political fields. “We think the Selic will be held at 10.5% until year-end, and we do not rule out a possible increase. There is political noise and, if the government adopts a more populist tone, this could further increase the political and fiscal risk,” Mr. Nunes said.

Leonardo Silva, competitiveness coordinator at ABIMAQ, an association representing the machinery industry, said there is an understanding of the motivations behind the Central Bank’s decision. “The Central Bank is doing its job. We are not questioning that. There is an inflationary risk and the fiscal issue cannot be ignored. However, depending on the dose, the medicine could turn into poison.”

The fact that companies’ debt has increased throughout the year weighs heavily on them, as the Selic rate affects the total debt stock. The stock of corporate debt increased from R$610 billion in April to R$743 billion now, according to Paramis, as a direct effect of debenture issuing.

These debt transactions accelerated this year due to a window of smaller net interest rate spread until May, with a firm guarantee from the banks structuring the issues. Paramis’s survey does not consider the effect of reducing the spread on debt.

Additionally, there has been a dearth of initial public offerings (IPOs) for three years, and a reduction in follow-on deals. Owners of leveraged businesses led part of the offerings that came off the drawing board. As a result, there was a reduction in access to funds, which also led to an increase in the issuance of private loans over the past two years.

Debenture offerings reached R$160.6 billion from January to May, a record for the period, with an increase of 204% over 2023.

For Daniel Lombardi, a managing partner at G5 Partners, a firm offering advisory on wealth management, M&A, and private debt restructuring, the Selic at 10.5% for the next few months, could keep private issuances strong until year-end.

There should also be an increase in divestment deals by companies to raise cash, and sale-and-leaseback transactions. That has increased since 2023 among retailers, which are highly affected by increasing interest rates.

Mr. Lombardi points out that companies and banks must be transparent when negotiating a new debt restructuring due to the perspective of a higher cost of capital for longer.

“Leveraged businesses support little hassle, and many companies have received shareholder money at this time of high interest rates. So, the faster it is settled, the better,” he said.

In this environment of greater uncertainty, industrial and retail leaders have raised their tone. CNC and CNI, trade and industry confederations, ABIMAQ (machinery), and IDV (retail) focused on the harmful effects of a contractionary monetary policy—the CNI even cited an “inadequate and excessively conservative” decision.

In a report released this week, Santander sees a negative impact from maintaining the Selic rate unchanged on retailers such as Casas Bahia, Magazine Luiza, and Pague Menos. On the opposite side, the bank sees a possible positive impact on Renner, Vulcabras, Vivara, and Natura, with little or no leverage.

*Por Adriana Mattos — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/