Geraldo Alckmin rules out retaliation and defends cautious trade stance
09/16/2025
The recent tensions between Brazil and the United States are likely to ease, and dialogue and negotiations with Washington are expected to increase, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said Monday (15). Mr. Alckmin, who also serves as Minister of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, said Brazil sees an opportunity to build a broad agenda with the U.S., especially around strategic minerals.
Asked about his confidence in dialogue with the U.S., Mr. Alckmin said it’s important to stay calm, adding with a laugh that he’s an anesthesiologist, drawing chuckles from the audience.
Mr. Alckmin said Brazil and the U.S. have a “positive agenda,” highlighting two centuries of partnership and long-standing American investors such as General Motors and Caterpillar. “The U.S. has a trade surplus with us. Among G20 countries, they only have a surplus with three: the U.K., Australia, and Brazil. This year, our exports to them rose 4.5%, while their exports to us grew 12.5%. Brazil is not the problem, Brazil is the solution.”
On tariffs, he noted that eight of the top ten American products exported to Brazil are subject to zero duties, and the country’s average tariff rate is 2.7%. On the non-tariff front, he added, Brazil offers abundant clean, green, renewable energy, and also sees potential to advance cooperation on strategic minerals.
He emphasized that private sector engagement in the U.S. is essential to negotiating changes in U.S. trade policy. The goal, he said, is to lower rates and remove the remaining 35% of items still subject to the tariff hikes.
Mr. Alckmin rejected any immediate application of Brazil’s reciprocity law and argued for a cautious approach that promotes free trade and multilateralism. “Let’s not forget that last week, pulp was removed from the tariff list. The rate didn’t drop to 10%, it went to zero.”
He pointed to other positive developments in Brazil, such as food prices improving, the exchange rate reaching R$5.32 per dollar, and gains in the stock market. His main concern, he said, is the need for strict fiscal and monetary policies.
“There’s nothing worse for fiscal policy than a Selic [base rate] at 15%,” he said. “A 1% increase in Selic adds R$48 billion just to roll over the debt. You cut R$200 million from healthcare, R$300 million from education, R$400 million from logistics and infrastructure, and every 1% costs R$48 billion to roll over the debt.” He added that there is no justification for Brazil having the second-highest interest rate in the world.
When asked about the presidential race, Mr. Alckmin replied that elections tend to make journalists and politicians anxious. “Every election is competitive, and that’s a good thing,” he said, adding that the economy will ultimately decide the outcome. “We’re in an odd-numbered year, and elections are in even-numbered years.”
In municipal elections, he said, voters focus on local issues like public lighting, day care, and health clinics. In national elections, the key factors are the economy, inflation, and employment. “And it’s about how people feel in the six months leading up to the election. That’s true around the world. What matters is the economy. So it’s essential to control inflation and support jobs.”
He concluded on a hopeful note: “The positive news is that Brazil is no longer on the hunger map,” citing a 5.8% unemployment rate as a favorable sign.
* By Marta Watanabe and Giordanna Neves — São Paulo
Source: Valor International
https://valorinternational.globo.com