Rate cuts in the U.S. expected to boost appetite for risk in emerging markets, focusing on liquid stocks

10/08/2024

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Three years after the last wave of initial public offerings in Brazil, investment banks have been meeting with privately held companies and potential candidates to re-enter the market starting in 2025, when the long drought of IPOs on the B3 stock exchange is expected to end.

The list of potential candidates is large, mainly comprising major companies. CantuStore (a vehicle accessories platform), BRK (sanitation), Inspirali (medical education), Compass (gas), and Aegea (sanitation) are seen as possible pioneers when the IPO window reopens.

The delayed rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve pushed back the timeline for IPOs in Brazil. Domestically, uncertainty about the Brazilian government’s fiscal discipline also hindered a resurgence in offerings this year.

For this revival to happen in 2025, foreign investors are expected to play a key role in the IPOs, making new stock market debuts possible.

Felipe Thut, head of investment banking at Bradesco BBI, pointed out that just like during the IPO boom between 2006 and 2008, international investors are likely to account for most of the demand in these transactions. The Fed’s rate cuts should push capital back into emerging markets as investors seek higher-risk opportunities. During that earlier period, foreign investors bought around 70% of the IPOs in Brazil—a trend that reversed during the wave of 2020 and 2021, when low interest rates in Brazil and increased risk appetite drove substantial capital flows into local equity and multimarket funds.

However, Mr. Thut emphasized that to attract foreign capital, these operations must be large enough to ensure liquidity—an essential requirement for international investors. “On the downside, Brazil’s equity and multi-market fund industry is struggling. So, we’ll have to depend on foreign investors. On the upside, we expect foreign capital to flow into emerging markets as interest rates decline,” he said.

At a recent Bradesco BBI event in São Paulo, which brought together around 15 private companies, Mr. Thut noticed the strong interest from investors in meeting with these firms. “With resources being scarcer, they want to be more selective about where to invest,” he noted.

Mr. Thut also said that during these meetings, investors often use the opportunity to compare data and performance with companies already listed on the stock exchange. “It’s a chance for them to interact with firms they don’t have easy access to,” he said.

He mentioned that sanitation was among the most sought-after sectors, particularly after the privatization of Sabesp. Technology, retail, and services also drew significant attention from investors.

Events with private companies are common on B3, but since 2022, the scope has expanded, addressing new topics. Rafaela Vesterman, client relationship manager at the exchange, said that this year alone, 111 private companies have participated in activities, both in-person and online. Many of these companies had planned to go public during the last window, but their plans were derailed by increased market volatility. Discussions at these events cover topics like investor relations, diversity, and sustainability. Publicly traded companies are also invited to share their experiences on the road to the IPO and the realities of management after going public.

UBS BB hosted 100 Brazilian companies in New York, all of which are publicly traded, for meetings with over 200 foreign investors. The general sentiment was that while investors are cautiously optimistic about Brazil, there is room for resource allocation, especially as demand for assets outside the U.S. rises due to the Fed’s rate cuts. “With the long-term rates in the U.S. declining, investors are seeking higher returns in other regions,” said Anderson Brito, global head of investment banking at UBS BB.

Initially, the capital flow is expected to target the secondary market—already traded stocks. The next step will be the return of follow-on offerings, with some possibly occurring later this year, though most are still on hold. By 2025, the much-anticipated resurgence of IPOs is likely to materialize after a three-year hiatus. “We’re seeing many banks forming syndicates with companies eyeing the first half of 2025,” Mr. Brito said.

American investors are expected to once again dominate the offerings, as has been the historical average, but European investors are becoming more consistent participants in these transactions.

Bruno Saraiva, co-head of investment banking at Bank of America in Brazil, estimated that the IPO comeback may only occur in the second quarter of 2025. For him, investors are waiting for Brazil to present more positive news regarding public finances and a clearer narrative about the country, which is currently clouded by “too much noise.”

“Right now, Brazil isn’t on foreign investors’ radar,” Mr. Saraiva said. “We should benefit from capital flows to emerging markets with the Fed’s rate cuts, but we’ll remain sidelined until we resolve our fiscal challenges.”

CantuStore said it couldn’t comment on IPO plans due to regulations from the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (CVM) and company policies. BRK confirmed that it is registered as a category A public company with the CVM, allowing it to access the capital markets. “The company continues to monitor market behavior based on opportunities,” it said in a statement.

Aegea, meanwhile, noted that an IPO is always a possibility but that there are no immediate plans to go public. “This decision depends on market conditions, the use of proceeds, and joint decisions with shareholders. Managing the company’s capital structure is a key part of our strategy, and accessing the public equity market is one option under consideration,” the company said.

Inspirali and Compass declined to comment on their plans.

*By Fernanda Guimarães — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/