If confirmed, the volume would match the same period in 2025, which was already very strong, marked by the return of large issuers to the external market.

The start of the year is expected to be the most favorable period of 2026. Many companies are likely to bring forward their fundraising plans to avoid getting too close to Brazil’s presidential elections. Issuers, however, are keeping an eye on possible developments stemming from the U.S. operation in Venezuela, which resulted in the arrest of Nicolás Maduro. So far, the event has not had significant negative effects on the secondary market for Brazilian bonds. The risk of spillover, however, is not negligible, according to some asset managers.

Despite the electoral calendar, the view among investment bankers is that this will be another strong year for dollar-denominated debt issuance following the market recovery in 2025, when fundraising reached about $34bn.

Gustavo Siqueira, co-head of capital markets and fixed income for Latin America at Morgan Stanley, says he believes that more than the elections themselves, the factor that will dictate the pace of transactions will be the domestic market, which has been growing and has led many companies to concentrate their issuance locally. “On the map, we have to put the local market, because depending on how the dynamics are here, more companies may look abroad,” he says.

For January and February, Siqueira projects between $7bn and $10bn raised, with around ten transactions. He believes Brazilian offerings could reach around $30bn for the year, marking a new positive cycle.

For Miguel Diaz, head of external fixed income at Santander Brasil, “the macro environment outside the country tends to outweigh the domestic macroeconomic scenario” in issuers’ decision-making. “If there is ample liquidity and greater clarity around monetary policy abroad, that should outweigh Brazilian political uncertainties,” he says.

In Diaz’s view, as in several moments last year, issuance decisions will be taken at the last minute. “In 2025 we saw companies doing behind-the-scenes work with investors, and decisions were made very close to the offering,” he says. According to him, since early December companies have resumed contact with investors, but without finalizing transactions.

Part of this behavior is explained by the fact that other issues are currently on chief financial officers’ radar, such as dividend taxation, says the Santander executive. “What we expect is that at the turn of the year they will move toward fundraising,” he adds.

Diaz expects offerings to gain traction from February onward, as fourth-quarter financial results are released.

Joel Schimchak, who heads fixed income at Goldman Sachs in Brazil, says election-related volatility should emerge only in the second half of the year and that stability in US Treasuries will keep the market open to Brazilian issuers. According to him, companies are likely to prefer issuing in the first half to secure market access and navigate the electoral period more smoothly.

A Bank of America (BofA) study shows that in non-election years, 40% of transactions are concentrated in the second half. In election years, however, that share drops to 20%, says Caio de Luca Simões, head of fixed income at the bank. “There is a perception that the earlier, the better, because the issuer can avoid some volatility and drink cleaner water.”

The main point of attention, according to Schimchak, will be geopolitical events. Investors will also continue to monitor more highly leveraged companies. Siqueira, of Morgan Stanley, does not believe recent credit events will be strong enough to contaminate other transactions, but investor caution will lead to more detailed due diligence, especially for companies seeking access to the international fixed-income market for the first time.

Simões also says he does not believe in the possibility of contagion. According to him, the current moment is one of credibility with investors, despite isolated events. “There was no credit crisis with companies going bankrupt, for example, because of interest rate levels. These were governance issues and problems in specific industries,” he says.

Last year saw intense activity for banks involved in overseas issuance. After calmer years, issuance volume reached $34bn across more than 40 transactions, 59% higher than in 2024.

The Treasury issued more than $10bn in external debt securities, becoming one of the most active issuers of the year. The federal government accessed the market four times in 2025. The most recent offering took place in November, amid COP 30 in Belém. On that occasion, new green bonds were issued, the Global 2033 Sustainable, and the current 10-year benchmark, the Global 2025, was reopened.

JBS, Bradesco, Embraer, FS Bio, Vale and Raízen also raised funds more than once last year.

The largest transaction was by JBS. In June, the food producer raised $3.5bn. Demand reached $16.7bn, nearly five times the offering size, according to sources. Beyond the volume, the deal set other milestones: in one of the 30-year tranches, the yield reached the lowest level ever recorded for Brazilian issuances with the same maturity. In another, the bond was issued with the longest maturity ever for a Brazilian company—40 years. According to investment banks, such maturities are typically seen only in deals by US companies.