Lack of IPOs and minimal activity sees Brazil fall from 3rd to 7th in rankings dominated by India and China

06/24/2024

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Hans Lin — Foto: Carol Carquejeiro/Valor

The sluggish activity in the Brazilian equities market has caused Brazil to drop positions in the ranking of emerging countries. According to data from Dealogic, Brazilian companies have raised only $2.1 billion from stock offerings this year, including block trades.

This total places Brazil in seventh position among non-mature economies, with India leading at $21.5 billion, followed by China with $19.7 billion. The figures account for the year to date up to the 14th, with Brazil’s share of the total emerging market offerings standing at 0.8%.

In 2023, a notably weak year for the industry, Brazil was ranked third among emerging countries, managing to raise $9.5 billion from January to December. China was the leader that year. In 2022, Brazil held the fourth position, trailing China, India, and South Korea, based on Dealogic’s global data collection on capital market activities.

According to B3, the financial volume of issuances this year has halved compared to the same period last year, focusing solely on the Brazilian market.

Furthermore, Brazil is nearing a milestone of three years without a new company debut on the local stock market—a scenario unprecedented in at least the last three decades. Market sentiment increasingly suggests that initial public offerings (IPOs) may not resume until 2025.

Market sources consulted by Valor indicate that the volatility of the Brazilian market and the uncertain outlook for the country’s fiscal health have heightened risk aversion. This cautious stance has not only deterred new IPOs but also affected additional stock offerings from already listed companies, known as “follow-on” offerings. Notably, there have been no such transactions in the country for about two months.

At the beginning of last year, the market for follow-on offerings shut down for two months following the Americanas scandal but reopened in the second quarter as companies in need of capital began to reengage with investors. Currently, however, heightened risk aversion has prompted companies to shore up their finances through private capital increases instead.

Industry insiders point out that another deterrent to new market activities is the disappointing performance of stocks from companies that conducted follow-on offerings earlier this year, resulting in losses for investors.

The only significant offering anticipated this year is the privatization of Sabesp, which is expected to generate upwards of R$15 billion. This transaction is likely to attract a strategic investor to purchase a substantial share block, designed meticulously to mitigate market volatility. Investment bankers note that if market conditions improve in the latter half of the year, activity could pick up. However, the focus on this multibillion-dollar deal has dominated market efforts and sidelined other potential offerings, which may have to delay their plans.

Despite the deteriorating local situation, Roderick Greenlees, the global head of investment banking at Itaú BBA, points out that the main hurdle to reviving stock offerings in Brazil remains the U.S. interest rate environment. The U.S. Federal Reserve has delayed initiating monetary easing as the American economy shows continued signs of robust activity.

Mr. Greenlees reveals that the bank was poised to execute 10 follow-on offerings, but heightened market volatility and declining stock prices prompted issuers to postpone these deals, awaiting more favorable conditions. “This significant uncertainty has resulted in a waiting game,” he remarks, noting that ongoing redemptions from investment funds are also stifling transaction flows. “There’s no new money entering the market.”

The Itaú BBA executive acknowledges that internal issues have exacerbated Brazil’s competitive stance relative to other emerging markets. Nonetheless, he suggests that only a minor shift, specifically the onset of a decrease in U.S. interest rates, is needed to revive local market offerings. “If the government demonstrates its commitment to fiscal stability, market offerings could rebound very swiftly,” he asserts.

Hans Lin, the co-head of Bank of America’s investment bank in Brazil, notes that in the current climate of market volatility, block sales of shares have become increasingly popular as a strategy to mitigate risk aversion. “We’re observing a more active block market,” he comments. He recalls a recent transaction where the bank facilitated a block sale for the private equity fund Carlyle, which sold its remaining stake in Rede D’Or in an operation valued at R$2.2 billion.

Mr. Lin emphasizes that the market in the United States remains robust, with asset values on the rise. “Investors are concentrated on the American market where they are profiting; there’s no need for them to seek additional risks,” he explains. According to Mr. Lin, the emerging markets that are successfully attracting foreign capital and standing out include India and Mexico.

Victor Rosa, the head of Scotiabank’s investment bank, describes Brazil’s financial market activity as being “hostage” to American interest rates, with investors showing little enthusiasm for the local stock market. This lack of new developments keeps the country in a state of limbo, nearing three years without an IPO. In contrast, Mexico is experiencing a surge in local company offerings driven by the “nearshoring” trend, which aims to bring production closer to consumer markets. According to Mr. Rosa, this will make for a very active year.

Mr. Rosa points out that the real interest rate in Brazil has not been conducive, prompting a shift from fixed to variable income investments, thereby constraining the influx of new capital. On a positive note, he highlights that the few offerings that do occur are from companies seeking capital for investment rather than merely adjusting their balance sheets, marking a shift from last year’s primary fundraising motive.

*Por Fernanda Guimarães — São Paulo

Source: Valor International

https://valorinternational.globo.com/