A key promotional date known as “12.12” (December 12) was affected by severe storms and strong winds that hit parts of Brazil. This retail date, inspired by Chinese e-commerce campaigns, has become an unofficial warm-up for Christmas sales in Brazil, especially in online channels.

Although 12.12 is mostly focused on e-commerce rather than brick-and-mortar stores, widespread power outages disrupted consumer attention and reduced traffic on websites and apps, according to surveys and social media monitoring by major retailers.

“We noticed lower app traffic in São Paulo and parts of the South after lunchtime on Wednesday [December 10], and that slump lasted into Thursday afternoon,” said a manager at a large online marketplace. “There was some recovery on the 12th, but we were already behind. We couldn’t push the offers properly. No one was in the mood to shop for irons or air fryers.”

Another executive from an e-commerce platform said retailers shifted strategies on December 10. Products requiring electricity, like phones and Bluetooth speakers, gave way on app homepages to items like power banks, emergency lights, and even candles, which matched the immediate needs of consumers facing outages.

“Those who had stock sold out fast,” the source said. Retailers like Mercado Livre and Shopee offered discounts of 40% to 50% on power banks, launched on December 10.

The São Paulo State Federation of Commerce (FecomercioSP) estimates that the storms caused losses of R$1.5 billion, including just over R$1 billion in the services sector and R$511 million in retail.

Last-minute shopping

In previous years, slow starts to December were often followed by a pickup in last-minute Christmas shopping. The worst-case scenario now would be continued bad weather pushing spending even further into the final days before Christmas, analysts said.

“There was a slowdown in foot traffic due to the rain and wind on Wednesday, but by Thursday, the stores had started to recover,” said the CEO of a shopping mall group with operations in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. The question, consultants say, is whether that lost demand will return or simply vanish.

This year’s holiday season is expected to be weaker than in 2024. Last December, revenue rose 7.8% from 2023 and sales volume increased 2%, based on data from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (PMC) by Brazil’s statistics agency IBGE.

The CEO noted that higher interest rates are forcing consumers to focus on debt payments, reducing their available spending power. Central Bank data released in late November showed household debt reached 49.1% of income in October 2025, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous year.

“Two Brazils”

A survey by the National Confederation of Commerce (CNC) projects real growth of 2.1% in December sales, totaling R$72.71 billion for the 2025 Christmas season.

“I think we’ll see moderate performance, because we live in two different Brazils: one with rising income and another with growing debt and default,” said CNC chief economist, Fabio Bentes.

In October, late payments on non-earmarked loans reached 6.7% among Brazilian households, up 1.3 percentage points from a year earlier, the Central Bank reported.

Bentes said the season may be marked by extremes: strong labor market conditions on one side and a restrictive credit environment on the other. Inflation is more contained, which supports purchasing power, but the cost of services remains high and continues to squeeze family budgets.

“There are many variables at play this year, making it harder to map out the season. But it’s shaping up to be a cooler Christmas,” he said. “With lower inflation, sales volume could be better, but nominal revenue won’t be inflated like in 2022.”

Research firm IEMI – Inteligência de Mercado, which specializes in fashion retail, expects single-digit increases in both volume and value this Christmas. Clothing sales are forecast to rise 4.7% in volume to 957.1 million items, with revenue reaching R$48.5 billion, up 9.4%. In the footwear segment, volume is expected to grow 4.2% and revenue 9% to R$12.6 billion.

Online war

The outlook is more optimistic for online retail, driven by intensified competition among platforms like Mercado Livre, Shopee, and Amazon. These companies are offering more aggressive coupon campaigns, ranging from R$10 to R$200. E-commerce accounts for 15% of total retail consumption in Brazil, with physical stores still holding an 85% share.

E-commerce association Abiacom expects the sector to grow 14.95% over 2024 levels. Last year, online sales between Black Friday week and December 25 totaled R$23.33 billion.

Total orders are projected to grow 5%, with average spending per order rising 9.5% to R$700.70, partly due to accumulated inflation pushing up prices.