After strong El Niño, signs emerge of La Niña formation, which caused droughts in the South

11/14/2023

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Panel on Climate Change during the 2nd Future of Agriculture Forum, held by Globo Rural in São Paulo — Foto: Flávio Santana

The climate’s instability, causing losses of R$33.7 billion in rural areas across the country this year due to extreme events, has forced Brazilian Central-West farmers to replant soybean fields this harvest season. The sector is unlikely to find relief in 2024. Climatic phenomena are becoming more intense and frequent, leaving increasingly less room for neutral periods.

Willians Bini, a meteorologist who heads Climatempo’s communications department, said there are already indications that a new La Niña will occur next year, which has already caused three consecutive years of below-average rainfall in southern Brazil. For now, producers are trying to adapt to the effects that El Niño will cause until April 2024. Still, they won’t have time to take their eyes off the sky and “turn the key” before a new climatic phenomenon affects their crops.

“El Niño begins to lose strength in the summer, but the fall should still be influenced by it. Winter is still unknown, but a new La Niña could occur, bringing less rainfall to the South,” said Mr. Bini during the 2nd Future of Agriculture Forum, held by Globo Rural Monday in São Paulo. “The planet is experiencing a warming period, and it’s crucial to consider the implications of this situation for agribusiness in terms of challenges,” he stated.

Experts have found that periods of climate neutrality are becoming increasingly rare, which demands constant attention from producers and more assertiveness in adapting to withstand the new times.

“Agriculture is the primary victim of extreme weather events. However, numerous technologies are available to mitigate the effects and ensure food production. We already have research, public policies, and environmental and social protection programs aimed at achieving this goal,” stated Paulo Packer, head of Embrapa’s Environmental Unit, during the event.

On Monday, researchers from the National Institute of Space Research (INPE) published a study highlighting the escalating intensity of climate extremes in Brazil. The average number of consecutive dry days, between 80 and 85 days from 1961 to 1990, has increased to approximately 100 days from 2011 to 2020 in regions spanning the north of the Northeast and the country’s Central-West. Additionally, heatwave days have surged from seven to 52 over 30 years.

Amália Sechis, founder of Beef Passion, the first Brazilian beef brand to receive international certification from the Rainforest Alliance, emphasized the importance of consumer awareness. According to her, producers adopting good practices will be ineffective if the end consumer doesn’t value them. “Our production is verticalized, fully tracked, and adheres to high environmental and social standards. However, it needs to be appreciated by consumers, given the high production costs,” she stated.

To enhance climate adaptability in its meat production, Beef Passion focuses on the genetic background of its cattle, primarily Angus and Wagyu breeds, crossbred with Nelore to ensure tolerance to Brazilian pasture conditions. “Additionally, we’ve successfully reduced the emission of harmful gases from the animals by 43%,” Ms. Sechis noted.

Since 2014, El Niño and La Niña phenomena have occurred almost uninterrupted. The National Confederation of Municipalities (CNM) reports that these climatic events have resulted in losses totaling R$287 billion to Brazilian agriculture from 2013 to 2022. In 2023 alone, the sector faces additional losses of R$33.7 billion, with R$24.6 billion in agriculture and R$9.1 billion in livestock.

“At this harvest, it’s logical for producers to be concerned about the weather. The risk of them being affected is significant,” stated José Marengo, coordinator of the National Center of Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alerts (CEMADEN), during the event. “The issue in most parts of Brazil is not solely the absence of rain but also the temperature rise, which exacerbates drought conditions in spring and summer,” he added.

Mr. Bini from Climatempo indicated that the transition from spring to summer would bring new periods of dryness and high temperatures in the country, potentially leading to significant losses in the grain harvest. This forecast mainly concerns grain producers, especially in the Central-West region, as it could exacerbate existing challenges.

“In Mato Grosso, many areas are currently undergoing replanting. In locations where temperatures have hit 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit), soil temperatures can exceed 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit). Consequently, emerging plants and seeds are almost literally being cooked,” he explained.

The 2nd Future of Agriculture Forum addressed topics like the advancement of connectivity in rural areas and the increasing use of biological inputs in Brazilian agriculture.

Por Rafael Walendorff, Raphael Salomão, Marcelo Beledeli — São Paulo*

Source: Valor Econômico

https://valorinternational.globo.com/