{"id":99898,"date":"2026-09-02T18:08:04","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T21:08:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=99898"},"modified":"2026-09-02T18:15:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T21:15:08","slug":"supreme-court-crisis-adds-new-uncertainty-to-brazil-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/supreme-court-crisis-adds-new-uncertainty-to-brazil-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Supreme Court crisis adds new uncertainty to Brazil election"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Analysts see risks for Lula and an opening for Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro, but say scandal-weary swing voters may prove harder to move<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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With a month to go before the first round of Brazil\u2019s presidential election, the disclosure Tuesday (1) of messages involving Supreme Court Justice\u00a0Alexandre de Moraes<\/strong>\u00a0and former Banco Master owner\u00a0Daniel Vorcaro<\/strong> is set to become a new factor in the race. The messages show the former banker seeking Moraes\u2019s help and information about a confidential investigation that would eventually lead to Vorcaro\u2019s arrest.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Analysts say the new Supreme Court crisis could energize the base of Liberal Party presidential candidate\u00a0Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro<\/strong>\u00a0and damage\u00a0President Lula<\/strong>\u2019s reelection bid. At the same time, candidates seeking to break through the country\u2019s political polarization could also benefit.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Rafael Cortez<\/strong>, a political scientist and partner at consultancy Tend\u00eancias, sees potential damage to Lula\u2019s candidacy because an association between the president and the Supreme Court has increasingly taken hold in public opinion. Any negative effect, however, will depend on the opposition\u2019s ability\u2014particularly Fl\u00e1vio\u2019s campaign\u2014to deepen that perception.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cI see a potentially negative effect, but it is not a given. Strategically, Fl\u00e1vio\u2019s campaign will have to exploit the issue politically so that voters do not turn the feeling that \u2018the mainstream is corrupt\u2019 into abstention, but instead into a vote for the opposition candidate.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Cortez said the episode could hurt the government because some voters perceive an \u201cinformal alliance\u201d between Lula and Supreme Court justices that has resulted in the persecution of Bolsonaro supporters. He therefore believes Fl\u00e1vio is likely to be able to capitalize politically on the issue, since his political movement was the first to embrace an anti-establishment message.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Cortez considers the election open and believes voter turnout will determine the outcome. In that context, the Supreme Court episode could motivate some voters dissatisfied with Lula who might otherwise stay home to turn out and vote. \u201cThe chances of major changes in the current landscape are low, but in a close election, small shifts are enough to change the outcome.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The analyst said Lula faces a paradox: despite high disapproval ratings for his government, he remains ahead in voting intentions. Cortez said the explanation lies more in the opposition\u2019s mistakes than in Lula\u2019s own strength.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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\u201cIf the government had positive approval ratings, we could say nothing would happen [as a result of developments in the Banco Master case at the Supreme Court], but that is not what is happening. The government\u2019s position as favorite rests on shaky foundations and reflects voters\u2019 lack of confidence in the opposition more than support for the president. He is leading, albeit by a narrow margin, despite voters not liking his government.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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With part of the electorate tired of polarization and lacking motivation to turn out, Cortez said the new allegations involving the Supreme Court could draw some of those voters away from abstention and toward Fl\u00e1vio. The political scientist noted that the senator is also the target of investigations related to the Banco Master case pending before the court. \u201cWhat we are seeing, ultimately, is how the Supreme Court has become drawn into Brazil\u2019s political radicalization. In voters\u2019 eyes, the justices themselves have become political figures.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Cortez said the episode could lead even some voters who have reservations about Fl\u00e1vio to conclude that criticism from Bolsonaro supporters about the court\u2019s conduct may have some basis. \u201cThat could lead voters who disapprove of the government to migrate toward Fl\u00e1vio, making the race even more evenly matched,\u201d he said. Lula\u2019s campaign, Cortez added, could counter the issue by emphasizing its economic agenda, including a proposal to end the six-day workweek with one day off and its message of protecting lower-income Brazilians.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Other opposition candidates could also benefit if they manage to tap into anti-establishment sentiment among part of the electorate, Cortez said. \u201cThose who are using criticism of the Supreme Court as an electoral strategy are likely to gain. Whether that will be enough to turn the race around is another matter.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Graziella Testa<\/strong>, a political scientist and professor at the Federal University of Paran\u00e1, said previous political scandals suggest that the impact of cases like this depends less on the facts themselves than on which narrative ultimately takes hold and who comes to be seen as the \u201cvillain\u201d or the \u201chero.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Testa said Fl\u00e1vio, who has publicly maintained a confrontational stance toward Moraes, is likely to seek electoral dividends from the episode. She cautioned, however, that there is no automatic link between the case and any change in voting intentions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to Testa, criticism of the Supreme Court and some of its justices remains largely divided along partisan lines, particularly among groups on the right. \u201cI don\u2019t think someone who doesn\u2019t know who they are going to vote for is worried about the Supreme Court. This is an issue that mobilizes committed right-wing voters,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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When asked about a possible response from Lula, Testa declined to predict the campaign\u2019s strategy. Based on the president\u2019s previous statements, however, she said Lula would likely argue that the investigation should be allowed to run its course before responsibility is assigned. \u201cHe is very likely to say he will wait for the outcome to determine whether anyone should be held responsible,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Testa also sees little chance that the campaign will turn the case into an in-depth debate about institutional changes to the judiciary or the Supreme Court. Although proposals along those lines may appear in campaign rhetoric, she believes electoral dynamics are more likely to encourage the personalization of the conflict.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cThe campaign is very short and needs very precise messages. I think it is more likely there will be a calculation around personalization because that generates more attention and tends to produce a greater electoral payoff.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Christopher Garman<\/strong>, managing director for the Americas at Eurasia, said the episode is more damaging to Lula because it overshadows issues the government had hoped to highlight positively at this stage of the campaign. The damage may be softened, however, by a widespread perception that corruption is associated with both the Workers\u2019 Party and Liberal Party candidates.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cVoters do not see either of them as credible on corruption. The case [involving Moraes and Vorcaro] does not directly affect President Lula. Still, it is bad for him because it brings a more negative agenda and heavy news coverage at a time when the Workers\u2019 Party campaign wants to highlight measures it says have improved people\u2019s lives. Since neither Fl\u00e1vio nor Lula has credibility on corruption, that softens the direct impact [on Lula], but negative news is bad for the incumbent,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to Garman, the scandal hit just as the government was trying to highlight its accomplishments, including the vote on a proposal to end the six-day workweek with one day off. \u201cVoters are pessimistic about the future. And you don\u2019t want pessimistic voters when you are seeking reelection [as Lula is]. But I don\u2019t see this as a factor that changes the probabilities in this election.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The allegations also competed for attention with the revelation that Vorcaro transferred more money than Fl\u00e1vio had previously acknowledged toward \u201cDark Horse,\u201d a biographical film about Jair Bolsonaro. Garman said \u201cit is not easy for Fl\u00e1vio\u201d to distance himself from that episode. At the same time, the Eurasia analyst sees broader institutional consequences. \u201cThe scandal deepens the crisis at the Supreme Court and puts enormous pressure on Moraes.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Carlos Melo<\/strong>, a political scientist and professor at Insper, urged caution in assessing the electoral impact, saying \u201ctoday\u2019s scandal is forgotten when tomorrow\u2019s scandal arrives.\u201d In his view, the economy and public security are the issues that most concern voters, meaning other matters may carry only marginal weight.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Independent voters are unlikely to be mobilized by Tuesday\u2019s revelations, Melo said, because there is already fatigue with successive waves of allegations affecting both sides. \u201cVoters inside each political bubble defend their own side at any cost and attack the other. Independent voters, meanwhile, are starting to look at all of this with a certain disdain. Bombs keep being thrown from one side\u2019s backyard into the other\u2019s, and one ends up canceling out the effect of the other.\u201d<\/p>\n

*By\u00a0 Cristiane Agostine ,\u00a0 Joelmir Tavares \u00a0and\u00a0 Guilherme Carvalho , Valor \u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analysts see risks for Lula and an opening for Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro, but say scandal-weary swing voters may prove harder to move     09\/02\/2026 With a month to go before the first round of Brazil\u2019s presidential election, the disclosure Tuesday (1) of messages involving Supreme Court Justice\u00a0Alexandre de Moraes\u00a0and former Banco Master owner\u00a0Daniel Vorcaro is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27142,27141],"class_list":["post-99898","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-new-uncertainty-to-brazil-election","tag-supreme-court-crisis"],"yoast_head":"\nSupreme Court crisis adds new uncertainty to Brazil election - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/supreme-court-crisis-adds-new-uncertainty-to-brazil-election\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Supreme Court crisis adds new uncertainty to Brazil election - 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