{"id":99593,"date":"2026-08-17T23:09:37","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T02:09:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=99593"},"modified":"2026-08-17T23:09:37","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T02:09:37","slug":"corporate-bonds-try-comeback-but-only-low-risk-issuers-succeed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/corporate-bonds-try-comeback-but-only-low-risk-issuers-succeed\/","title":{"rendered":"Corporate bonds try comeback, but only low-risk issuers succeed"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head non-featured \">\n<div class=\"medium-centered subtitle\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__subtitle\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Banks began testing market in July and managed to distribute 62% of securities after four months of selling less than half<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\"><time datetime=\"2026-08-17T07:46:58.116-03:00\">08\/17\/2026\u00a0<\/time><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\">\n<div class=\"content__share-bar\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-media__image aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/D04z4vMUQ9tAWIEpfEZVS9RygRc=\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/U\/S\/gvFI2SQ2CIKbBowXiQ1A\/foto17fin-101-divida-c1.jpg\" alt=\"Bruno Spilberg of SPX says demand for corporate bond is there, just not at the rates they seek \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o\" width=\"324\" height=\"357\" \/><\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body ready cropped\">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-media content-photo\" data-block-type=\"backstage-photo\" data-block-id=\"0\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-media__container\" data-image-display=\"normal\">\n<div class=\"content-media-container\" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-media__figure\"><figcaption class=\"content-media__description\"><strong><em>Bruno Spilberg of SPX says demand for corporate bond is there, just not at the rates they seek \u2014 Photo: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column mc-side-item__container\" data-block-type=\"ads\" data-block-id=\"1\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"54\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">After nearly four months on hold, Brazil\u2019s corporate bond market began showing its first signs of improvement following a restrictive second quarter, although the recovery remains highly limited and concentrated among lower-risk issuers. This pattern is expected to remain through year-end, with the strongest issuers potentially able to extend the maturities of their bonds.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"43\" data-block-id=\"4\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Issuances totaled R$40.1 billion in July, when banks returned to test the market. Another R$59 billion in offerings were underway, according to a survey by ABC Brasil\u2019s research department. Debentures alone accounted for R$28 billion, 40% above the R$20 billion recorded in June.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"70\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Another sign of a recovery came from the distribution of offerings. In July, investors absorbed 62% of the securities, the first time the figure had exceeded 60% since February. In previous months, banks had kept a larger share of the issuances in their portfolios as demand retreated. In June, the amount placed in the market was just 46%. In May, it was 42%; in April, 40%; and in March, 47%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"60\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The recovery remains selective and concentrated among large companies and issuers with better credit quality. This means investors have shifted toward these assets in what is known as a \u201cflight to quality.\u201d \u201cInstitutional and excellent-quality [securities] are selling well. \u2018Mid\u2019 and \u2018high yield\u2019 [companies with medium and high returns, but greater risks] are struggling,\u201d said a source who requested anonymity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"57\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The slowdown in the corporate debt market began in March, following a strong start to the year. A series of corporate events interrupted private-credit funds\u2019 fundraising flows and prompted investors to move into more conservative assets, such as bank securities. With demand reduced, several transactions launched between March and April were not fully absorbed by the market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"53\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cBanks ended up acting as a shock absorber during this period of nervousness,\u201d said\u00a0<strong>Samy Podlubny<\/strong>, head of fixed income at UBS BB. According to him, for more than three months, institutions focused their efforts on distributing securities and reducing positions that remained in their portfolios, which limited the launch of new offerings.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"39\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">With much of this inventory already distributed in the secondary market and fund redemptions more stabilized, issuances began to gain traction again. One of the transactions that marked the reopening of the window was that of Axia, formerly Eletrobras.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"55\" data-block-id=\"10\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The company raised R$1 billion in early July, of which 99% went to funds and individuals, according to data from the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil\u2019s (CVM) offering-registration system. It later raised another R$2 billion in a separate offering, concentrated among funds. Taesa, ISA Energia Brasil, and Copel also issued debentures during the month.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"53\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Guilherme Maranh\u00e3o<\/strong>, Ita\u00fa BBA\u2019s head of fixed income, said fund redemptions were absorbed without major disruptions in the secondary market. At the same time, banks managed to reduce the positions accumulated during the period of weaker demand. \u201cThere was a period of digesting the transactions that remained on the institutions\u2019 books,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"61\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">According to Maranh\u00e3o, the recovery also began to emerge in tax-incentivized debentures, a segment that was hit harder by fund outflows and returned to investors\u2019 radar after the repricing of assets. Recent transactions recorded what was considered strong demand, but the executive stressed that it is still too early to say the window has fully reopened. \u201cThe sample is still small.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"66\" data-block-id=\"14\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Companies continue to need to calibrate the price, size, and structure of offerings to attract investors, particularly for lower-quality credits. In this environment, some fundraisings may come with shorter maturities. \u201cOf course, it varies from case to case, but during periods of volatility, it is common for investors seeking to shorten duration to prefer shorter-dated securities,\u201d said\u00a0<strong>Felipe Thut<\/strong>, head of fixed income at Bradesco BBI.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"32\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The high level of interest rates could also lead companies, particularly those raising funds for infrastructure projects, to initially issue shorter-term debt and subsequently replace it with longer-term transactions if conditions improve.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"46\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In the first half, the change in investor sentiment and the search for issuers with the highest credit ratings reshaped the corporate debt market.\u00a0<span class=\"highlight\">A survey by Quantum Finance for\u00a0<\/span><strong><span class=\"highlight\">Valor\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><span class=\"highlight\">shows that the number of issuers fell significantly while the average size of transactions increased.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"83\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">About 70% of issuances during the period were concentrated in the first three months of the year\u2014those that were already underway before the shock caused by Ra\u00edzen and GPA, owner of the P\u00e3o de A\u00e7\u00facar chain, seeking out-of-court reorganization in March. And the trend, according to\u00a0<strong>Samer Serhan<\/strong>, a partner at JiveMau\u00e1, is for the market to remain extremely selective through year-end. \u201cWe haven\u2019t seen such a strong search for extremely high-quality assets since 2023 [the year of the Americanas crisis],\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"16\" data-block-id=\"19\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">According to him, issuers with lower credit assessments have found it more difficult to access investors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"42\" data-block-id=\"20\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The Quantum survey shows that the number of securities fell 34.9% from January to June, while the number of issuers declined 16.9%, from 225 to 187. As a result, the average size of transactions increased 25.9% to R$436.5 million during the period.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles\" data-block-type=\"raw\" data-block-weight=\"5\" data-block-id=\"21\">\n<p class=\"content-text__container\">\n<div class=\"content-intertitle\">\n<h2>Tax-exempt bonds on the rise<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"64\" data-block-id=\"22\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The most emblematic case was Sabesp, which raised R$14.7 billion in the first half, nearly 10% of the total volume issued. The amount was almost twice the R$7.3 billion raised by Ecovias Rio Minas, the largest issuer during the same period in 2025. In February alone, Sabesp raised R$8.58 billion in two transactions linked to the IPCA inflation index, maturing in 2038 and 2041.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"54\" data-block-id=\"23\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The concentration among large companies was accompanied by growth in tax-incentivized debentures, which are used to finance infrastructure projects. IPCA-linked securities accounted for 44.4% of the volume issued in the first half, up from 32.7% a year earlier. In monetary terms, they grew 11%, from R$59.8 billion to R$66.5 billion, bucking the market\u2019s contraction.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"27\" data-block-id=\"24\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cInfrastructure transactions tend to be larger and more structured, consistent with the financing of projects that are large in scale and have long maturation periods,\u201d Serhan said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"52\" data-block-id=\"25\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Debentures linked to the DI rate remained in the lead, but lost ground during the period. Their share fell from 59.3% to 51.4%, with volume declining 29%, from R$108.3 billion to R$76.9 billion. IPCA-linked issuances averaged R$679 million, nearly twice the R$343 million average for conventional transactions tied to the DI rate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"54\" data-block-id=\"26\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The shift is also reflected in the sectoral breakdown. Electricity, sanitation, and transportation and logistics together accounted for 62% of the volume raised in the first half. Electricity remained virtually unchanged from the previous year, at R$52.9 billion. Sanitation nearly doubled, from R$12 billion to R$23.7 billion, while transportation and logistics generated R$16.9 billion.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"41\" data-block-id=\"28\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In the opposite direction, issuances by the financial sector fell approximately 73%, from R$39.9 billion to R$10.6 billion. The market, which in 2025 had strong combined participation from the energy and financial sectors, became more concentrated in infrastructure and regulated services.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"55\" data-block-id=\"29\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><span class=\"highlight\">Serhan highlights that the large number of concessions awarded in recent years, particularly in transportation and urban mobility, has created new financing needs.\u00a0<\/span>At the same time, the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) began providing a larger share of the funds allocated to projects, while some investment schedules were extended, reducing the immediate need for fundraising.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"55\" data-block-id=\"30\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The greater selectivity is also explained by the mismatch between the rates companies are willing to accept and the returns demanded by investors.\u00a0<strong>Bruno Spilberg<\/strong>, senior credit portfolio manager at SPX, said fund redemptions reduced their capacity to absorb new offerings. At the same time, companies began postponing transactions as buyers demanded higher premiums.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"34\" data-block-id=\"31\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cThere is demand from companies to issue, but there is no investor appetite at the rates they want,\u201d he said. \u201cThose who can are holding back issuances. Only the obvious names are raising funds.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"48\" data-block-id=\"32\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Guilherme Almeida<\/strong>, head of fixed income at Suno Research, noted that through February, the market had been working with a more favorable outlook for interest-rate cuts. The reversal of that expectation, the steepening of the yield curve and increased volatility prompted companies and investors to adopt greater caution.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"51\" data-block-id=\"33\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The dispersion in rates shows the degree of selectivity. According to Almeida, top-tier infrastructure issuers were able to raise funds at rates close to IPCA plus 6.2% a year, while higher-risk transactions reached double-digit rates. Among securities linked to the DI rate, additional spreads ranged from 0.20 to 13.84 percentage points.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"39\" data-block-id=\"34\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In July, fund flows also showed some normalization. Private-sector credit funds attracted R$14.4 billion after a string of withdrawals in the first half. Infrastructure funds, meanwhile, recorded net redemptions of R$1.6 billion, below the R$8.7 billion withdrawn in June.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"58\" data-block-id=\"36\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Improved fund flows and the reduction in banks\u2019 inventories are helping to reactivate issuances, but they do not yet signal a broad-based recovery. A survey by ABC Brasil of 88 investors shows that 56% expect debenture issuances linked to the CDI rate to grow by at least 10%. For incentivized debentures, 47% project an increase of that magnitude.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"42\" data-block-id=\"37\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">According to\u00a0<strong>Odilon Costa,<\/strong>\u00a0who heads the bank\u2019s research division, the more constructive outlook is related to lower expectations for spread widening. Among incentivized debentures, 66% of respondents expect premiums to remain stable or narrow, compared with 21% in the second-quarter survey.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"63\" data-block-id=\"38\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Despite the decline in issuances, the secondary market remains liquid. After growing 33.9% in 2025, to R$947.4 billion, trading volume increased 20.6% in the first half of this year, to R$494.6 billion, according to Quantum. In July, trading totaled R$99.5 billion, virtually unchanged from June, according to ABC Brasil. \u201cThe market is still healthy; the secondary market is turning over well,\u201d Serhan said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"56\" data-block-id=\"39\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Banks expect issuances to gradually normalize during the second half as investors rebuild their portfolios and institutions resume originating transactions. Among asset managers, however, a more cautious view prevails: as long as interest rates remain high and funds have not fully recovered their fundraising capacity, the reopening is likely to remain concentrated among the highest-quality issuers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">*By\u00a0Fernanda Guimar\u00e3es,\u00a0Rita Azevedo\u00a0and\u00a0Liane Thedim\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo and Rio de Janeiro<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Banks began testing market in July and managed to distribute 62% of securities after four months of selling less than half &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 08\/17\/2026\u00a0 Bruno Spilberg of SPX says demand for corporate bond is there, just not at the rates they seek \u2014 Photo: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o After nearly four months on hold, Brazil\u2019s corporate [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27083,27082],"class_list":["post-99593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-but-only-low-risk-issuers-succeed","tag-corporate-bonds-try-comeback"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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