{"id":99515,"date":"2026-08-11T15:07:02","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T18:07:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=99515"},"modified":"2026-08-11T15:07:02","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T18:07:02","slug":"public-debt-reduces-space-for-private-debt-pressures-investments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/public-debt-reduces-space-for-private-debt-pressures-investments\/","title":{"rendered":"Public debt reduces space for private debt, pressures investments"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head non-featured \">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__title\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Scenario reduces and increases the cost of resources available for the capital market<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\"><time datetime=\"2026-08-11T07:29:04.636-03:00\">08\/11\/2026\u00a0<\/time><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\">\n<div class=\"content__share-bar\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<hr class=\"content__divider \" \/>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body ready cropped\">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-media content-photo\" data-block-type=\"backstage-photo\" data-block-id=\"0\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-media__container\" data-image-display=\"normal\">\n<div class=\"content-media-container\" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-media__figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-media__image aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/TqMc1IpqUgTCyu9zb3e0KlsKwbs=\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/H\/R\/b3OVRQRfaoRNJEBpHL4A\/foto11fin-101-cefeb-c1.jpg\" alt=\"Roberto Troster, coordinator of Cefeb and the study\u2019s author, says the figures are a warning sign because they lead to a vicious dynamic \u2014 Foto: Rogerio Vieira\/Valor\" width=\"2589\" height=\"1974\" \/><figcaption class=\"content-media__description\"><em>Roberto Troster, coordinator of Cefeb and the study\u2019s author, says the figures are a warning sign because they lead to a vicious dynamic \u2014 Photo: Rogerio Vieira\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column mc-side-item__container\" data-block-type=\"ads\" data-block-id=\"1\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"61\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Public debt remains on the rise and crossed an important threshold this year: reaching 77.2% of GDP in April, it surpassed the share of private-sector debt, which includes households and companies, at 75.7% in the same month, according to a report by the Center for Studies on the Financing of Brazilian Companies (Cefeb) at the Institute for Economic Research Foundation (Fipe).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"59\" data-block-id=\"4\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The development revealed a classic phenomenon in macroeconomics, \u201ccrowding out,\u201d or the displacement effect, in which the public sector absorbs an increasingly larger share of available savings and financial-market resources to roll over its liabilities. Because the government is the lowest-risk borrower, it \u201cpushes\u201d the private sector out of capital markets and makes credit for productive investment more expensive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"44\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Roberto Troster<\/strong>, coordinator of Cefeb and the study\u2019s author, says the figures are a warning sign because they lead to a vicious dynamic. \u201cThe government demands more resources, and this raises the risk premium and interest rates for those taking out financing,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"79\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The study provides an X-ray of the mechanism through which monetary policy is transmitted to credit in the country and calculates a 0.97 correlation between the average funding cost of the federal government\u2019s domestic marketable debt and that of private debt, indicating an almost symmetrical alignment. When the government finances itself at a higher cost, the private productive sector immediately feels the impact, Troster says. In this way, he argues, the state acts as the financial market\u2019s \u201canchor price.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"51\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">At the same time, in the economist\u2019s assessment, credit policy is poor and based on short-term operations, which increases defaults. As payment delays continue to rise, the supply of credit contracts and banks tighten lending criteria. Companies tend to shelve expansion plans as they seek to deleverage and improve operational efficiency.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"47\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cFiscal policy has lost any countercyclical character,\u201d says\u00a0<strong>Carlos Kawall<\/strong>, a former secretary of Brazil\u2019s National Treasury and founder of asset manager Oriz. \u201cIt is expansionary by definition, regardless of whether the economy is doing poorly or well, especially because it is doing well, with low unemployment.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"69\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The study uses Gross General Government Debt (DBGG) as its basis, which includes the federal government (including the National Social Security Institute, or INSS), states and municipalities. Through the end of 2025, according to the report, public and private debt were growing in parallel, showing an economy becoming more leveraged. \u201cIn April 2026, the divergence becomes explicit. Public debt shoots up to 77.2%, while private debt falls to 75.7%.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"96\" data-block-id=\"10\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Troster says the last time the \u201ccrowding out\u201d phenomenon occurred was under the government of\u00a0<strong>Dilma Rousseff<\/strong>, between 2014 and 2016.\u00a0<span class=\"highlight\">However, the impact on the private sector now is likely to be much more dramatic because the country has never had a capital market that was as relevant to companies\u2019 liabilities<\/span>. According to the Cefeb study, the segment\u2019s share of the debt of publicly traded companies rose from 14.8% to 22% between 2022 and 2026, while the share of bank credit fell from 38.4% to 31.2%, indicating a structural shift in companies\u2019 sources of financing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"109\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Kawall points out that investors are on the other side of these issuances, including a large number of individual investors. \u201cWe do not have this previous experience in Brazil, but international experience shows that the effect on how the economy functions tends to be amplified because it is more widespread,\u201d he warns. According to him, a banking crisis generally remains more contained and under the control of the Central Bank. However, he notes that between 2023 and 2025, the country experienced a \u201ccrowding in\u201d movement, with the \u201cboom\u201d in the private debt market, which largely replicates the public debt\u2019s indexing structure, with securities linked to the CDI and IPCA.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"58\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The former Treasury secretary says it is \u201cconcerning\u201d to see the government moving toward \u201ccrowding out.\u201d It is, he says, a model that consistently depends on increasing the stock of public debt, but that has also used higher revenues to finance itself, through measures such as increasing the IOF financial transactions tax and taxing exclusive closed-end funds.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"59\" data-block-id=\"14\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Economic growth, he assesses, was not enough to absorb the increase in spending, particularly mandatory spending, with the adjustment of the minimum wage and the reindexation of health care and education expenditures. Kawall points out that, when the fiscal framework was introduced in 2023, experts were already warning that it did not guarantee the sustainability of the debt trajectory.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles\" data-block-type=\"raw\" data-block-weight=\"4\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<p class=\"content-text__container\">\n<div class=\"content-intertitle\">\n<h2>Long-term issuance loses steam<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"89\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Because the economy grew more than expected, the debt trajectory has not been explosive so far. Kawall notes that the request submitted to the Senate at the end of July for authorization to expand the capacity for sovereign borrowing abroad, proposing to replace the current cumulative ceiling of $100 billion with $35 billion, shows that the Treasury needs to broaden its investor base because of the growing difficulties with longer-term issuances in Brazil. The share of foreign-currency debt would rise from the current 3.8% of total debt to 7%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"75\" data-block-id=\"18\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cEven with the growth of recent years, the credit market is small compared with the needs of the private sector, while the state is too large. Government debt has grown much more than private debt,\u201d says\u00a0<strong>Jeferson Bittencourt<\/strong>, head of Macroeconomics at ASA Investments and also a former secretary of the National Treasury. He explains that there is the structural problem of Brazil\u2019s low level of savings and the cyclical problem, which is fiscal stress.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"63\" data-block-id=\"19\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The country\u2019s savings, Bittencourt says, are made up of households, companies and the government. \u201cWhat contribution does the government make to these savings? None; it generates negative savings, consuming other people\u2019s savings, paying high interest rates, over short terms and with a low risk assessment.\u201d Therefore, he says, \u201ccrowding out\u201d manifests itself in higher interest rates and shorter terms for the private sector.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"88\" data-block-id=\"20\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The largest companies can still issue debt in the capital markets, at an average cost of 13.68% for debentures, according to the Cefeb report, but smaller companies face greater restrictions, leaving them dependent on bank credit, at an average cost of 18.40% for legal entities, or investment funds in receivables (FIDCs). The difference, the study shows, reached 4.53 percentage points in April, the date of the data analyzed. \u201cIssuing debt at this cost imposes a line of value destruction on most sectors of the real economy,\u201d Troster says.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"99\" data-block-id=\"21\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The effects of this asymmetry are showing up in companies\u2019 financial health. The default rate among legal entities reached 4.8%, a historic peak: among micro and small companies, the rate reached 6%, while it remained at 0.5% among large companies. The number of companies with negative credit records also increased, rising from 6.66 million in January 2024 to 8.96 million in April this year, a 34.5% increase. Meanwhile, the difference between corporate and sovereign borrowing costs, according to Cefeb, remained reasonably stable between January 2022 and April 2026, generally fluctuating within a range of 2.5 to 4.5 percentage points.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"86\" data-block-id=\"23\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Subsidies guaranteed to certain sectors worsen the problem, Bittencourt says, because they are shielded from monetary policy and end up putting further pressure on interest rates. The provision of cheaper credit to certain sectors is also cited by professor Carlos Pedroso, former chief economist at MUFG Bank Brasil, who notes that the presence of the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) has been growing again. He expects lower GDP growth next year, a scenario that would only be avoided if there is an adjustment in the public sector.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"31\" data-block-id=\"24\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In an interview with\u00a0<strong>Valor,<\/strong>\u00a0the executive secretary of the Ministry of Finance, Rog\u00e9rio Ceron, declined to comment specifically on the Cefeb study but offered a conceptual assessment of \u201ccrowding out.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"72\" data-block-id=\"25\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">For him, longer-term rates have three components: rising interest rates around the world, over which Brazil has no control; the trajectory of fiscal policy in Brazil; and the large supply of tax-exempt securities, which puts pressure on the placement of government bonds. \u201cWe want a country with lower interest rates; that is a consensus. How do we do that? We need to start dismantling [the two components over which we have influence].\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"64\" data-block-id=\"26\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><span class=\"highlight\">According to Ceron, on the fiscal side, it is necessary to \u201csend the signals needed to remove the risk premium from the curve resulting from uncertainty.\u201d<\/span>\u00a0Regarding tax-incentivized securities, a subject the Finance Ministry has raised repeatedly, he advocates a broad debate because, given the strong growth in issuances, the volume is incompatible with the country\u2019s long-term savings and the situation \u201cis not healthy.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"56\" data-block-id=\"27\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">For the secretary, \u201csomeone has to give\u201d: \u201cEither the Treasury itself has to extend the process of seeking the optimal composition of the debt or, on the other hand, these private-sector borrowers who use these instruments will also have to undertake some adjustment. This has to be debated and resolved. We can no longer postpone it.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"104\" data-block-id=\"29\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Kawall agrees that tax exemptions for certain investments, such as tax-incentivized debentures and real estate and agribusiness credit bills (LCIs and LCAs), are a distortion that worsens the problem, as the financial market itself has pointed out, but \u201cnot by a long shot\u201d are they the fundamental reason Brazil is seeing stress at such high levels. \u201cIf there were a correction to this taxation, would the problem be solved? No.\u201d The former Treasury secretary also points out that the government itself encouraged demand for these investments, which are more sought after by higher-income investors, by taxing, for example, contributions to VGBL private pension plans.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"30\" data-block-id=\"30\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Bittencourt points to other problems. \u201cThere are countries that have higher debt than Brazil, others that have higher costs, but none that have both at the same time,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"43\" data-block-id=\"31\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Other countries, he says, have more room to maneuver to cut spending. In the U.S., for example, 20% of spending is discretionary, while in Brazil that share is less than 5%. \u201cFiscal adjustment in Brazil is much more complex than in another country.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"6\" data-block-id=\"32\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">(<em>J\u00e9ssica Sant\u2019Ana contributed reporting from Bras\u00edlia.<\/em>)<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">By Liane Thedim\u00a0\u00a0\u2014 Rio de Janeiro<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Scenario reduces and increases the cost of resources available for the capital market 08\/11\/2026\u00a0 Roberto Troster, coordinator of Cefeb and the study\u2019s author, says the figures are a warning sign because they lead to a vicious dynamic \u2014 Photo: Rogerio Vieira\/Valor Public debt remains on the rise and crossed an important threshold this year: reaching [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27071,27070],"class_list":["post-99515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-pressures-investments","tag-public-debt-reduces-space-for-private-debt"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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