{"id":99476,"date":"2026-08-10T22:16:44","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T01:16:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=99476"},"modified":"2026-08-10T22:16:44","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T01:16:44","slug":"brazilian-farmers-adjust-plans-to-face-strongest-el-nino-on-record","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazilian-farmers-adjust-plans-to-face-strongest-el-nino-on-record\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazilian farmers adjust plans to face strongest El Ni\u00f1o on record"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head featured \">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__title\" style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><em>Brazilian crops could see soybean planting delayed, affecting the sowing window for the second corn crop; coffee and citrus may also be affected<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\"><time datetime=\"2026-08-10T07:32:55.957-03:00\">08\/10\/2026\u00a0<\/time><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\">\n<div class=\"content__share-bar\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-top-image\" data-block-type=\"featured-image\" data-block-id=\"0\">\n<div class=\"column medium-centered medium-22 large-20 desktop \" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-featured-figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-featured-image aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/vM2RxVrEzFtMNbiN2MSMtpzv0Zw=\/0x0:1424x1081\/888x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/Q\/j\/PjqJfZSKiQXLAcYerIZg\/foto10agr-101-elnino-b8.jpg\" alt=\"A wizened corn field during the last strong El Ni\u00f1o in 2015\/16\" width=\"1424\" height=\"1081\" \/><figcaption class=\"content-featured-caption\"><em>A wizened corn field during the last strong El Ni\u00f1o in 2015\/16 \u2014 Photo: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body ready cropped\">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"mc-column mc-side-item__container\" data-block-type=\"ads\" data-block-id=\"1\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles active-capital-letter\" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"57\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container theme-color-primary-first-letter\" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In the 2026\/27 crop year, Brazil\u2019s agribusiness sector is expected to face the strongest El Ni\u00f1o on record, considering events documented since 1950. The last El Ni\u00f1o to receive a \u201cvery strong\u201d classification, like the current one, was in the 2015\/16 crop year, when 16 different crops suffered productivity losses. It was active from 2014 to 2016.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"60\" data-block-id=\"4\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The climate pattern, which began in June this year, is developing more rapidly and is expected to peak between November and January 2027\u2014with no exact forecast yet for when it will end. Experts consulted by\u00a0<strong>Valor<\/strong>\u00a0believe that, if a lack of rain and high temperatures materialize in the country\u2019s Center-North, soybean planting could be delayed and yields could fall.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"87\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Guilherme Bastos<\/strong>, coordinator of FGV Agro, says irregular rainfall at the beginning of the season could delay planting or require the oilseed to be replanted. In 2024, which was also an El Ni\u00f1o year, 2.9 million hectares had to be replanted because of weather conditions.\u00a0<span class=\"highlight\">If the situation is repeated, late soybean sowing could compromise the ideal planting window for the second corn crop.<\/span>\u00a0In his view, the prospect of a strong El Ni\u00f1o makes sound crop planning and the purchase of agricultural insurance even more crucial.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"59\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Ana Luiza Lodi,<\/strong>\u00a0a market intelligence analyst at Stonex, notes that if planting is delayed but weather conditions subsequently allow sowing, there would be no major damage to yields. From a market perspective, in the event of a significant crop failure in Brazil and Argentina, for example, prices could rise, as local and global supply-and-demand balances would become tighter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles\" data-block-type=\"raw\" data-block-weight=\"40\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\"content-text__container\">\n<blockquote class=\"content-blockquote theme-border-color-primary-before\"><p>\u201cCurrently, the focus is on the United States, amid some forecasts of excessive heat. If there is any significant problem in the United States, prices could already react even before the South American crop has been determined,\u201d the analyst says.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"70\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In southern Brazil, where the phenomenon usually brings above-average rainfall, the concern is excessive precipitation during the establishment of summer crops. \u201cThe impact could even be positive for soybean and corn yields in Rio Grande do Sul, as long as the rain is not excessive, as it was in 2024,\u201d says agrometeorologist\u00a0<strong>Ana Maria Heuminski de \u00c1vila<\/strong>, of Unicamp\u2019s Center for Meteorological Research and Applied Climate Studies in Agriculture (Cepagri).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"73\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Agrometeorologist\u00a0<strong>Marco Antonio dos Santos\u00a0<\/strong>of Rural Clima highlights the importance of soil management in dealing with periods of excess or insufficient water. \u201cHe [the farmer] first has to do what we call his homework: maintain good crop residue, keep the soil with good plant cover and good chemical and physical structure, so that when it rains, the water can penetrate the entire soil and form a larger layer of water,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"63\" data-block-id=\"11\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Characterized by an increase in the temperature of Pacific Ocean waters, El Ni\u00f1o has occurred many times. However, as the planet warms, the phenomenon has become increasingly intense and frequent, says\u00a0<strong>Marcelo Seluchi<\/strong>, general coordinator of Operations and Modeling at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), which is linked to the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"56\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o is a recurring phenomenon; the issue is that it is becoming increasingly recurrent. Over the past 60 years, there have been more cases, and more intense ones, than in the previous 60 years,\u201d he says. In Brazil, the phenomenon typically increases rainfall in the South and causes drought in the Center-West, North and Northeast.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"45\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">For\u00a0<strong>Eduardo Assad<\/strong>, a researcher at FGV Agro\u2019s Bioeconomy Observatory, recent episodes of the phenomenon provide a basis for estimating that significant losses could occur in agriculture. According to him, in 2015 and 2024, the phenomenon caused losses of up to 10% of the crop.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"76\" data-block-id=\"14\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Eduardo Martins<\/strong>, director of the Sustainable Agriculture Associated Group (GAAS), sees a risk of even greater damage to soybean production, for example. \u201cIf the lack of rain increases, affecting Matopiba [the convergence of Maranh\u00e3o, Tocantins, Piau\u00ed and Bahia] and the Center-West, there is a possibility of 20% losses in the country,\u201d estimates Martins, who served as president of the Brazilian Institute of the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (Ibama) under the government of\u00a0<strong>Fernando Henrique Cardoso<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles\" data-block-type=\"raw\" data-block-weight=\"3\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<p class=\"content-text__container\">\n<div class=\"content-intertitle\">\n<h2>Coffee at risk<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"51\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In addition to grains, some of Brazil\u2019s main perennial agribusiness crops could also suffer losses from the effects of El Ni\u00f1o in the 2026\/27 crop year. Coffee and citrus, for example, are among the crops most vulnerable to a combination of intense heat and water deficits, as projected for the season.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"70\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">According to\u00a0<strong>Eduardo Assad,<\/strong>\u00a0a researcher at the Bioeconomy Observatory of FGV Agro\u2019s Agribusiness Studies Center, from a physiological standpoint, soybeans and corn are the crops most exposed to risks, but in the Southeast, oranges and coffee are the most sensitive crops. \u201cThe forecast is for very strong heat waves and low precipitation. [This could lead to] coffee flower abortion and a loss of water supply for oranges,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"43\" data-block-id=\"19\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Not all crops are expected to suffer losses. When El Ni\u00f1o occurs, sugarcane fields in the Center-South region typically benefit from increased rainfall and a more even distribution of precipitation, says Fabio Marin, a professor in the Department of Biosystems Engineering at Esalq\/USP.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"51\" data-block-id=\"20\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cIn El Ni\u00f1o years, especially when the phenomenon is strong, production [of sugarcane] in the Center-South is normally above average,\u201d he says. The main risk, the professor says, is concentrated in harvesting, since excessive rain can make it difficult for machinery to enter fields, delaying the processing of the raw material.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"43\" data-block-id=\"21\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">El Ni\u00f1o also alters weather conditions in countries that compete with Brazil. This is the case with India, one of the world\u2019s largest sugar producers, which could face a water deficit during the monsoon rainy season, notes\u00a0<strong>Guilherme Palhares<\/strong>, an analyst at Santander.<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">*By\u00a0Luiz Eduardo Minervino\u00a0and\u00a0Nayara Figueiredo, Globo Rural\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Brazilian crops could see soybean planting delayed, affecting the sowing window for the second corn crop; coffee and citrus may also be affected 08\/10\/2026\u00a0 A wizened corn field during the last strong El Ni\u00f1o in 2015\/16 \u2014 Photo: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o In the 2026\/27 crop year, Brazil\u2019s agribusiness sector is expected to face the strongest El Ni\u00f1o [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27063,27064],"class_list":["post-99476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-brazilian-farmers","tag-plans-to-face-strongest-el-nino-on-record"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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