{"id":99244,"date":"2026-07-24T16:42:32","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T19:42:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=99244"},"modified":"2026-07-24T16:42:32","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T19:42:32","slug":"fiscal-watchdog-flags-risk-from-state-owned-companies-financial-situation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/fiscal-watchdog-flags-risk-from-state-owned-companies-financial-situation\/","title":{"rendered":"Fiscal watchdog flags risk from state-owned companies\u2019 financial situation"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Possible issues include Treasury contributions, debt payments, increased subsidies to dependent companies, and reduced dividends, IFI says<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The deteriorating financial condition of some federally owned state-owned companies is heightening fiscal risks for the federal government, according to the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), the public finances watchdog linked to the Senate. Those risks include possible capital injections from the National Treasury, higher subsidies for Treasury-dependent state-owned companies, and payments on loans the companies took out under federal guarantees but failed to honor. There is also a risk of lower dividends being paid out to the federal government.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The warning appears in the July Fiscal Monitoring Report (RAF), released Thursday (23). The chapter on state-owned companies was written by director\u00a0Alexandre Andrade<\/strong>\u00a0and staff member\u00a0Gustavo Queiroz<\/strong>. Among the companies showing financial deterioration are Correios, Emgepron, and Infraero.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Correios, for instance, posted negative operating cash flow of R$692 million in 2025, following a R$2.4 billion deficit the year before. Infraero recorded negative operating cash flow of R$375.4 million, a R$207.9 million deterioration from 2024.\u00a0<\/span>The indicator matters because it measures a company\u2019s ability to generate resources through its core business.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Operating margin shows further signs of weakness. Correios closed 2025 with a negative operating margin of 42.9%, its worst level since the indicator began deteriorating in 2022. Emgepron also stayed in negative territory, at negative 24.8%, followed by Infraero at negative 10.5%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Operating margin reflects a company\u2019s ability to service its financial debt and invest in its own growth. A negative margin leaves a state-owned company with limited capacity to fund its investment plans or even sustain operations, raising the likelihood of eroding shareholders\u2019 equity or needing capital injections from the National Treasury.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The report also flags companies that lean more heavily on financial income than on operating revenue, like\u00a0Emgepron, ABGF, Infraero, Codern, and Emgea,<\/span>\u00a0all show a high ratio of financial income to net revenue, a warning sign for the federal government.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to the IFI, this pattern can point to a shortage of investment projects, low operating efficiency, or reliance on funds from earlier federal capital injections.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The report also shows the primary balance of federal state-owned companies steadily deteriorating. After posting a surplus equal to 0.06% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, the group ran deficits of 0.02% of GDP in 2023, 0.07% in 2024, and 0.04% in 2025. On a rolling 12-month basis through May of this year, the deficit reached 0.07% of GDP.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Treasury dependence<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n

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In the institution\u2019s assessment, the worsening fiscal and financial conditions at some companies raise the risk that Treasury-dependent state-owned companies will need supplementary budget allocations or capital injections, adding pressure to the federal government\u2019s primary spending.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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For companies that are not Treasury-dependent, the main risk lies in weaker cash generation and lower dividend payments to the federal government, along with the possible need for future recapitalizations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Another risk identified is that state-owned companies may fail to repay loans backed by federal guarantees. In such cases, the National Treasury has to cover the debt, adding further pressure on public finances.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The IFI notes that the deterioration among state-owned companies is neither uniform nor driven by a single cause but says the data reveal patterns that warrant government attention.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Among Treasury-dependent state-owned companies, an analysis of shareholders\u2019 equity, operating cash flow, and the cash adequacy indicator identifies another group with concerning financial conditions:\u00a0Codevasf, CBTU, Embrapa, HCPA, and EBSERH.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cFor these companies, it\u2019s important to stress that the issue isn\u2019t solvency in the traditional sense, since their existence depends on Treasury subsidies rather than their own cash generation. The real risk lies in the persistent mismatch between spending and transfers, which tends to translate into pressure for supplementary budget allocations or extraordinary capital injections, competing for fiscal space with other public policies,\u201d the IFI explained.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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Among state-owned companies that are not Treasury-dependent, operating margin, exposure to financial income, and earnings-quality indicators point to where the biggest problems lie. Correios, Emgepron, and Infraero show that, even without directly burdening the federal budget, these companies may see their ability to pay dividends impaired or need capital injections\u2014such as the one the federal government plans to provide Correios in 2027.<\/p>\n

*By\u00a0J\u00e9ssica Sant\u2019Ana\u00a0\u2014 Bras\u00edlia<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Possible issues include Treasury contributions, debt payments, increased subsidies to dependent companies, and reduced dividends, IFI says       07\/24\/2026\u00a0 The deteriorating financial condition of some federally owned state-owned companies is heightening fiscal risks for the federal government, according to the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), the public finances watchdog linked to the Senate. Those […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27031,27032],"class_list":["post-99244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-fiscal-watchdog-flags-risk","tag-state-owned-companies-financial-situation"],"yoast_head":"\nFiscal watchdog flags risk from state-owned companies\u2019 financial situation - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/fiscal-watchdog-flags-risk-from-state-owned-companies-financial-situation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fiscal watchdog flags risk from state-owned companies\u2019 financial situation - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Possible issues include Treasury contributions, debt payments, increased subsidies to dependent companies, and reduced dividends, IFI says       07\/24\/2026\u00a0 The deteriorating financial condition of some federally owned state-owned companies is heightening fiscal risks for the federal government, according to the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), the public finances watchdog linked to the Senate. 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