{"id":99185,"date":"2026-07-17T21:38:23","date_gmt":"2026-07-18T00:38:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=99185"},"modified":"2026-07-17T21:38:23","modified_gmt":"2026-07-18T00:38:23","slug":"chinese-quota-could-slash-brazilian-beef-exports-by-r4-5bn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/chinese-quota-could-slash-brazilian-beef-exports-by-r4-5bn\/","title":{"rendered":"Chinese quota could slash Brazilian beef exports by R$4.5bn"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head featured \">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__title\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Trade group Abiec projects 900,000 tonnes this year, 748,000 tonnes below 2025\u2019s quota-free total<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\"><time datetime=\"2026-07-17T07:27:41.897-03:00\">07\/17\/2026\u00a0<\/time><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\">\n<div class=\"content__share-bar\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body \">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles active-capital-letter\" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"36\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container theme-color-primary-first-letter\" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Brazil\u2019s meatpacking industry expects to export roughly 900,000 tonnes of beef to China in 2026, down 748,000 tonnes from last year\u2019s record, according to\u00a0<strong>Roberto Perosa<\/strong>, president of the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (Abiec).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wall protected-content\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"42\" data-block-id=\"4\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">That volume represents barely half of the 1.68 million tonnes of fresh beef China purchased in 2025, and the shortfall could cost Brazilian meatpackers as much as $4.5 billion in revenue.\u00a0<span class=\"highlight\">Companies have already moved to cut costs and scale back production<\/span>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"52\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The decline stems from China\u2019s new safeguard measure, which caps Brazilian beef imports at 1.1 million tonnes for 2026. Because Beijing counts cargoes shipped in 2025 but cleared through customs this year, Brazil\u2019s actual 2026 exports will fall short of the authorized ceiling. Through June, 794,600 tonnes had already reached Chinese ports.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"78\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Abiec now puts the revenue hit at $4.5 billion, based on the 748,000 tonnes of lost volume valued at the average price of shipments to China between January and June\u2014$6,100 per tonne. At the start of the year, the industry had projected a smaller decline of 600,000 tonnes and $3 billion in lost revenue, using 2025\u2019s average price of $5,000 per tonne\u2014an estimate that did not yet account for the carryover of 2025 cargoes toward this year\u2019s quota.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"35\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><span class=\"highlight\">Brazilian processors have already halted production of certain cuts and suspended shipments to China starting in July, on the assumption that the quota has been exhausted<\/span>. Chinese authorities have not yet confirmed the official figures.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"47\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Industry expectations are that slaughter lines dedicated to the Chinese market will resume in the fourth quarter, allowing exports to restart in mid-November. Given the roughly 40-day sea voyage, those cargoes would arrive in China in 2027, counting toward next year\u2019s quota and avoiding the additional tariff.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles\" data-block-type=\"raw\" data-block-weight=\"70\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\"content-text__container\">\n<blockquote class=\"content-blockquote theme-border-color-primary-before\"><p>\u201cEveryone knows how exposed we are to the Chinese market. We\u2019re learning to live with this new reality,\u201d Perosa said at a press conference Thursday (16). \u201cIt\u2019s a significant drop [to 900,000 tonnes]. It will show up in our numbers, weigh on the trade balance and reduce Brazil\u2019s overall export volumes. We expect sales to other markets to pick up, but not enough to offset what we\u2019re losing in China.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"60\" data-block-id=\"10\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Sales to China surged in the first half of the year as exporters rushed to ship under the 12% tariff before the quota closed, seeking to avoid a steeper 55% surcharge. The resulting competition for supply pushed prices higher, though it remains unclear whether that pace and those price levels could have held through the second half of the year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"48\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Perosa said the industry will need to work to keep the drop in export volumes from deepening further. Overall, Abiec expects exports to end 2026 down 10% from 2025, when Brazil shipped 3.5 million tonnes. \u201cWe\u2019re working to hold that line, but the challenges are real,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"53\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><span class=\"highlight\">The fallout is already visible across the sector.\u00a0<\/span>Perosa said all Abiec member companies\u2014which account for 98% of Brazil\u2019s beef exports\u2014have taken steps to adapt to the halt in sales to their top customer, including collective furloughs, layoffs, shortened shifts, reduced slaughter volumes and other measures. Many are currently operating at a loss.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"52\" data-block-id=\"14\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cWe\u2019re having to make more adjustments on the production side than on distribution, but it varies by company. All of them are struggling, from the largest down to the medium-sized and small players,\u201d he said. Perosa added that the squeeze could accelerate industry consolidation, with larger players moving to acquire smaller ones.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"51\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Beyond the exhausted China quota, Perosa said there is a \u201cstrong possibility\u201d that exports to the European Union will be suspended starting in September, as Brazil has yet to provide sufficient technical evidence that cattle destined for the EU market are raised without antimicrobials\u2014a setback that would further dent exporters\u2019 revenue.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"59\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cIt\u2019s a high-value market that takes cuts with no outlet in Asia, and it\u2019s an important part of our product mix. Exports there help ease pressure on domestic price formation,\u201d Perosa said, adding that access to the European market also bolsters the \u201creputation\u201d of Brazilian beef. \u201cWhen the EU takes a position, it affects every other market,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"71\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><span class=\"highlight\">With both China and the EU curtailing demand, global appetite for Brazilian beef is set to shrink.\u00a0<\/span>Reduced competition for the product is expected to weigh on export prices, though Abiec has yet to finalize a forecast. Between January and June, Brazil exported 1.7 million tonnes of beef\u2014up 15.5%\u2014generating $9.8 billion in revenue, a 36.2% increase over the first half of 2025. Average prices climbed nearly 18%, to $5,700 per tonne.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"27\" data-block-id=\"19\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Perosa said the drag on export revenue will eventually filter through to the domestic market, potentially pushing up beef prices for Brazilian consumers over the medium term.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"34\" data-block-id=\"20\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cPrices in the domestic market may ease at first, but costs haven\u2019t come down. Production is likely to fall, and as supply tightens, prices will rise again\u2014that\u2019s the rebound effect we\u2019re seeing,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div data-track-category=\"multicontent\" data-track-action=\"ultimo chunk conteudo\" data-track-noninteraction=\"false\" data-track-scroll=\"view\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"39\" data-block-id=\"21\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cIf we kept producing the same volume as last year under current market conditions, prices would collapse. But with nowhere for that production to go, there\u2019s no reason for the industry to keep producing at that level for export.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">*By\u00a0Rafael Walendorff, Globo Rural\u00a0\u2014 Bras\u00edlia<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Source: Valoar International<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trade group Abiec projects 900,000 tonnes this year, 748,000 tonnes below 2025\u2019s quota-free total &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 07\/17\/2026\u00a0 Brazil\u2019s meatpacking industry expects to export roughly 900,000 tonnes of beef to China in 2026, down 748,000 tonnes from last year\u2019s record, according to\u00a0Roberto Perosa, president of the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (Abiec). That volume [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27026,27027],"class_list":["post-99185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-chinese-quota","tag-could-slash-brazilian-beef-exports-by-r4-5bn"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Chinese quota could slash Brazilian beef exports by R$4.5bn - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/chinese-quota-could-slash-brazilian-beef-exports-by-r4-5bn\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chinese quota could slash Brazilian beef exports by R$4.5bn - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Trade group Abiec projects 900,000 tonnes this year, 748,000 tonnes below 2025\u2019s quota-free total &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 07\/17\/2026\u00a0 Brazil\u2019s meatpacking industry expects to export roughly 900,000 tonnes of beef to China in 2026, down 748,000 tonnes from last year\u2019s record, according to\u00a0Roberto Perosa, president of the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (Abiec). 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