{"id":99126,"date":"2026-07-13T12:33:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T15:33:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=99126"},"modified":"2026-07-13T12:33:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T15:33:11","slug":"rio-bravo-partner-rebukes-treasury-push-to-revisit-tax-exempt-securities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rio-bravo-partner-rebukes-treasury-push-to-revisit-tax-exempt-securities\/","title":{"rendered":"Rio Bravo partner rebukes Treasury push to revisit tax-exempt securities"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Change would deal further blow to credit market already grappling with restructuring cases, says Evandro Buccini<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The National Treasury\u2019s push to revisit the tax treatment of tax-exempt securities comes at a particularly delicate moment for the credit market, and stands to hurt a segment already facing greater caution from banks and investors, says\u00a0Evandro Buccini<\/strong>, partner and head of credit and multi-asset management at Rio Bravo Investimentos.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In his view, the proposal amounts to \u201can attempt to pin problems that belong to the government on others,\u201d and would do little to solve the Treasury\u2019s real difficulty: placing NTN-B inflation-linked bonds in the market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Speaking to\u00a0Intraday<\/a>,\u00a0Valor\u2019s\u00a0<\/strong>financial markets blog, Buccini says that after a strong credit expansion cycle, Brazil is likely headed for a \u201cprolonged digestion\u201d of recent problems. \u201cIf the economy does slow down, it could become a critical moment for the credit market. And if the Central Bank has no room to cut rates, it could be the worst of both worlds,\u201d he says. Even so, he stops short of predicting a \u201ccredit crunch.\u201d Below are the main excerpts from the interview:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Valor<\/strong>:\u00a0Is a renewed escalation of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran on your radar?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Evandro Buccini<\/strong>: We saw the attacks last week, but the market reaction wasn\u2019t especially strong this time. Brent crude jumped 8% early in the week, then largely recovered without another sharp swing, even with no ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. It\u2019s clearly an issue that worries the market a great deal, and we don\u2019t seem close to a lasting resolution. It will keep driving volatility and uncertainty in prices, and central banks will need to factor it into monetary policy decisions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Valor<\/strong>:\u00a0We\u2019ve even seen the correlation between oil prices and market interest rates come back…<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Buccini:<\/strong>\u00a0That\u2019s right. Markets had become somewhat decoupled, partly because we haven\u2019t yet seen the full fallout from higher oil prices. It\u2019s not just about price\u2014it\u2019s also about the supply of oil and refined products. On top of that, countries\u2019 reserves are low, and that\u2019s likely to remain an issue for some time. We\u2019re seeing Japan and Europe raise interest rates in response to inflationary pressure that isn\u2019t being driven by oil alone. In the U.S., though, where large-scale oil and gas production is an advantage, the Fed may be slower to act, especially given its mandate\u2019s focus on core inflation, which buys the central bank a bit more time. The big development at the Fed has been its new chair, Kevin Warsh. His appointment came as something of a surprise, since many expected him to lean more dovish, favoring lower rates. My sense is that nothing will change at the next few meetings, and rates will hold steady.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Valor<\/strong>:\u00a0Does that point to a scenario of higher long-term interest rates globally and a stronger dollar?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Buccini:<\/strong>\u00a0On the rates side, yes, that\u2019s the trend\u2014especially with economies, the U.S. in particular, still running strong. Rates are likely to stay higher for longer. On foreign exchange, it\u2019s more complicated. Higher rates usually mean a stronger currency, but every developed economy is moving in the same direction at once. There are also U.S. policies aimed at weakening the dollar through other channels. And the war itself is widening the U.S. fiscal deficit. So, it\u2019s not obvious to me that the dollar strengthens from here. For Brazil, the picture is neither good nor bad. We\u2019re a major oil producer with very high interest rates. Against the dollar, the real could hold roughly where it is, maybe even see some marginal appreciation.\u00a0The catch is that what actually weighs on the real right now is Brazil itself\u2014our fiscal problems and the coming election.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Valor:<\/strong>\u00a0Is there still room for further Selic rate cuts?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Buccini<\/strong>: We\u2019re in a very sensitive cycle built on fragile foundations. Everything hinges on the exchange rate and commodity prices. And while the prevailing view is that the economy will slow eventually, there\u2019s no concrete sign of that yet. It\u2019s a fragile cycle that will keep depending heavily on volatile factors, which is far from ideal. There\u2019s still a long stretch before the Monetary Policy Committee\u2019s August meeting, so I can\u2019t say whether there\u2019ll be room for another cut. If the decision were made today\u2014with the exchange rate fairly stable and June\u2019s IPCA reading coming in softer\u2014there might be room for one more cut. But by August, honestly, I couldn\u2019t say.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Valor<\/strong>:\u00a0We\u2019ve seen considerable volatility in the sovereign bond market…<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Buccini<\/strong>: Yes.\u00a0We\u2019re seeing some opportunities in NTN-Bs, but we\u2019re keeping positions relatively small since there\u2019s no clear sign the volatility will ease<\/span>. Current levels are attractive, and break-even inflation is quite high, so we do see some opportunities there. That said, there are concerns. Government auctions hadn\u2019t been going well, though the latest one was somewhat better, and there\u2019s still a shortage of buyers for long-dated paper. The real issue: pension funds aren\u2019t buying, and foreign investors aren\u2019t showing up.\u00a0I prefer intermediate maturities, just past 2030, since they offer more manageable duration for hedging\u2014or choosing not to hedge\u2014against tax-exempt infrastructure debentures<\/span>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Valor<\/strong>:\u00a0The market has pointed to a worsening fiscal outlook to explain this…<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Buccini:<\/strong>\u00a0You have to look at everything that\u2019s happened over the past four or five years. Since the end of the Bolsonaro administration, growth in public spending has been a major concern. And the first half of this year was rough. That\u2019s not entirely surprising, given that we\u2019re in an election year and a spending acceleration was entirely predictable. The problem is that it pressures government bonds and pushes interest rates higher\u2014there\u2019s no getting around that. Gross government debt has climbed roughly 10 percentage points of GDP over this period. That\u2019s extraordinary. And frankly, I have little confidence that will change. There\u2019s talk that some targeted fiscal adjustment could happen even under the current administration after the election, but that\u2019s hard to believe. Economists have long expected the economy to slow, and it never has. But it does look like that could finally materialize over the next few years. If growth slows, that could open room for rate cuts, but it would be a negative from a fiscal standpoint\u2014it\u2019s hard to cut spending when the economy is growing slowly, or even contracting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Valor<\/strong>:\u00a0Is the election a concern?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Buccini<\/strong>: The only real way out of this would be a confidence shock, but it doesn\u2019t look like the election will produce a candidate capable of inspiring that kind of confidence. For us, the key will be gauging how the election affects the broader economic outlook.\u00a0Regardless of who wins, we\u2019re skeptical that a confidence shock materializes.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Valor<\/strong>:\u00a0We\u2019ve seen a significant widening in spreads on tax-exempt infrastructure debentures. Has the worst passed?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Buccini<\/strong>: I think we\u2019re nearing the bottom of the widening in infrastructure spreads relative to NTN-Bs. The past few months have been very tough, with heavy fund redemptions. But looking at secondary-market activity and funding, we may start to see some spread tightening ahead.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Valor:<\/strong>\u00a0The Treasury has signaled interest in revisiting tax exemptions on certain securities…<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Buccini<\/strong>: That would hurt the tax-exempt securities market. To me, this is an attempt to pin problems that belong to the government on others. Tax-exempt infrastructure debentures do create some competition for government bond issuance, but that\u2019s far from the main problem\u2014I doubt their impact is all that significant. Sure, one or two auctions with very large issuances worth several billion reais could have some effect, but that doesn\u2019t look like the main driver of pressure on NTN-Bs. We\u2019ve already seen five or six formal proposals to change these tax exemptions, and Congress has rejected every one. Nothing stops the government from trying again, but is it really worth the political capital? As it did with CRIs and CRAs, the National Monetary Council could instead change the collateral rules\u2014limiting issuance size, for instance.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Valor<\/strong>:\u00a0Several major credit events have surfaced in recent months. Is that a concern?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Buccini<\/strong>: Yes. Interest rates are very high and are even catching up with companies that weren\u2019t especially leveraged. No one expected rates to stay at these levels for this long, particularly given that the previous cycle started with rates at 2%. And of course, there are important sector-specific issues at play.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Valor<\/strong>:\u00a0Such as?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Buccini<\/strong>: Agribusiness, for one. It\u2019s an important, complex sector going through a significant leverage cycle, and it\u2019s also been hit by opportunistic behavior in some judicial restructuring cases that will leave lasting scars on the industry. With Banco do Brasil lending less, or taking a tougher line, capital markets will be far more cautious than before\u2014just as they were making their first serious push to build closer ties with agriculture. We\u2019re also seeing a lot happening in the energy sector, largely because the government has shown little appetite for organizing the industry and has let Congress do as it pleases. It\u2019s a sector that matters a great deal to capital markets, and it\u2019s now facing numerous restructurings.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Valor<\/strong>:\u00a0And this comes after a boom in the credit market…<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Buccini<\/strong>: Particularly among retail investors. Infrastructure matters a lot to them, and we\u2019re now seeing the country\u2019s largest out-of-court debt restructuring, with Ra\u00edzen. It\u2019s affected a huge number of people. Distributing credit assets to retail investors became much easier, which allowed for broad dispersion that\u2019s now causing headaches. Even a single restructuring is a real challenge for asset managers and changes our day-to-day work. Multiply that across a large, dispersed base of retail investors, and it gets even more complicated\u2014and that dents the sector\u2019s overall appetite for credit. If the economy does slow, it could become a critical moment for the credit market. And if the Central Bank has no room to cut rates, it could be the worst of both worlds. We\u2019re currently at a Selic rate of 14.25%, with the economy still growing. If GDP growth drops below the current 1.5%-to-2% range and rates can\u2019t come down, the outlook could get considerably tougher.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Valor<\/strong>:\u00a0Is a credit crunch on your radar?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Buccini<\/strong>: I don\u2019t think \u201cbubble\u201d is the right word, and I\u2019m not expecting a severe credit crunch, especially given that Brazil is a relatively low-leverage country. But we may be in for a more prolonged adjustment. Credit growth through the capital markets has been very strong, and banks have already stepped up provisions for potential losses. What seems most likely to me is a longer stretch of digesting credit problems, spread over several quarters. Both the supply of and demand for credit could decline, and it may take several quarters before capital markets and banks resume expanding their loan books. I think that\u2019s a highly likely scenario.<\/p>\n

*By\u00a0Victor Rezende\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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