{"id":98593,"date":"2026-05-21T22:49:04","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T01:49:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=98593"},"modified":"2026-05-21T22:49:04","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T01:49:04","slug":"larger-brazil-coffee-crop-fails-to-ease-price-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/larger-brazil-coffee-crop-fails-to-ease-price-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Larger Brazil coffee crop fails to ease price uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head non-featured \">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__title\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Analysts say stronger production is still insufficient to relieve tight global supply and demand conditions<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\"><time datetime=\"2026-05-21T17:00:34.269-03:00\">05\/21\/2026<\/time><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\">\n<div class=\"content__share-bar\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body \">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"39\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Brazil\u2019s coffee crop is expected to grow this year, but not enough to ease tight global supply and demand conditions. That was the assessment of industry participants gathered Wednesday (20) at the International Coffee Seminar in Santos, S\u00e3o Paulo.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wall protected-content\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"50\" data-block-id=\"4\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cWe are living through a highly uncertain scenario in which it is impossible to map out any outlook. And this is happening amid climate change and a geopolitical crisis,\u201d said Celso Vegro, a researcher at the Instituto de Economia Agr\u00edcola de S\u00e3o Paulo (IEA), on the sidelines of the event.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"34\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) is set to update its estimates for Brazil\u2019s coffee production on Thursday. In its previous forecast, the agency projected a harvest of 66.1 million bags, up 17.1% from 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"30\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Private consultancies are pointing to even higher production, potentially surpassing 70 million bags. Expectations of a robust crop are seen as a factor weighing on prices in international commodity exchanges.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"37\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">On the New York exchange, the July arabica coffee contract closed down 0.68% on Wednesday at $2.6830 per pound. Over the past week, the contract fell 4.42%, according to Valor Data. Over one month, prices declined 6.74%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"45\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">In the view of Carlos Augusto Rodrigues de Melo, president of Cooxup\u00e9, \u201cBrazil needs to produce 70 million bags, otherwise we will lose market share.\u201d \u201cWe expect a good crop both in quality and quantity,\u201d he added in an interview during the International Coffee Seminar.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"26\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Melo said current prices remain at good levels, although highly volatile. According to him, there is little coffee available in the market, leaving room for speculation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"42\" data-block-id=\"10\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Within the coffee industry, the watchword is caution, said Pavel Cardoso, president of ABIC, the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association. He said companies have passed part of the recent price declines on to retailers, but volatility is creating \u201ctension\u201d between buyers and sellers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"45\" data-block-id=\"11\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cIf companies build long inventory positions and prices fall, margins are hurt. If they keep inventories short and prices rise, they are left uncovered. And there is also concern over El Ni\u00f1o. The 2026 crop is potentially the first opportunity to rebuild inventories,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"32\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Vinicius Estrela, from the Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association (BSCA), reinforced those concerns. \u201cCoffee is a long-term crop, and we are having to make short-term decisions with higher costs and uncertainty over commercialization.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"28\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Despite expectations of larger supply in Brazil, Eduardo Carvalhaes, from Escrit\u00f3rio Carvalhaes, said he still sees little room, at least for now, for a significant drop in prices.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"53\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cIn the minds of major buyers, coffee prices will keep falling because the crop will be large. Yet even after all this decline, prices are still at $2.70 [in New York]. [But] the balance between production and consumption is fragile and there are no inventories,\u201d he said on the sidelines of the event.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"54\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">For IEA\u2019s Vegro, the arrival of the new crop on the market may put pressure on prices, but only in the short term. \u201cConsumption has grown so much, while supply has been constrained, that larger supply now does not offset this imbalance. And logistics costs will eat into part of profitability,\u201d the researcher added.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"42\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Last year, coffee exporters incurred an additional R$66.1 million in costs due to inefficiencies at ports, according to calculations by the Conselho dos Exportadores de Caf\u00e9 do Brasil (Cecaf\u00e9). For Eduardo Heron, technical director at Cecaf\u00e9, concerns for this year are increasing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div data-track-category=\"multicontent\" data-track-action=\"ultimo chunk conteudo\" data-track-noninteraction=\"false\" data-track-scroll=\"view\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"53\" data-block-id=\"18\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cIn the second half, with a large volume to ship and the same infrastructure, losses could be even greater,\u201d Heron said. He added that the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are risk factors for the entire supply chain, as they create disruptions to foreign trade.<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">*By\u00a0Raphael Salom\u00e3o, Globo Rural\u00a0\u2014 Santos<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analysts say stronger production is still insufficient to relieve tight global supply and demand conditions &nbsp; &nbsp; 05\/21\/2026 Brazil\u2019s coffee crop is expected to grow this year, but not enough to ease tight global supply and demand conditions. That was the assessment of industry participants gathered Wednesday (20) at the International Coffee Seminar in Santos, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[26934],"class_list":["post-98593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-larger-brazil-coffee-crop-fails-to-ease-price-uncertainty"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Larger Brazil coffee crop fails to ease price uncertainty - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/larger-brazil-coffee-crop-fails-to-ease-price-uncertainty\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Larger Brazil coffee crop fails to ease price uncertainty - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Analysts say stronger production is still insufficient to relieve tight global supply and demand conditions &nbsp; &nbsp; 05\/21\/2026 Brazil\u2019s coffee crop is expected to grow this year, but not enough to ease tight global supply and demand conditions. 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