{"id":98365,"date":"2026-05-04T11:49:37","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T14:49:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=98365"},"modified":"2026-05-04T11:49:37","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T14:49:37","slug":"newsletter-murray-av0gados-april-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/newsletter-murray-av0gados-april-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"NEWSLETTER MURRAY AV0GADOS – April 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

NEWSLETTER<\/strong><\/p>\n

April 2026<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

04\/01\/2026<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

U.S. TARIFFS CUT INTO SALES OF BRAZILIAN MANUFACTURERS<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

From Taurus to WEG, companies say U.S. trade barriers hurt revenue and margins, even as some effects begin to ease<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Gunmaker Taurus expects at some point to recover $18 million it paid in export tariffs to the United States, charges that were struck down in February by the country\u2019s Supreme Court.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Like Taurus, other large Brazilian companies with exports to the U.S. or production in North America spent the second half of 2025 trying to find ways around the impact of Washington\u2019s tariff offensive.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Now that fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings season has passed, manufacturers such as Tupy, Iochpe-Maxion, WEG and Taurus itself are calculating the damage U.S. tariffs inflicted on their results.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cOur war is over,\u201d Taurus Chief Executive Salesio Nuhs said on the company\u2019s fourth-quarter earnings call, referring to the end of the 50% tariff that had been applied to shipments to the U.S.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Firearms were not included on the list of products exempted from the 40% surcharge announced by U.S. President Donald Trump in July last year, which was added to the initial 10% \u201creciprocal\u201d tariff.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Indirect damage<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brazilian multinational Iochpe-Maxion, which operates in 14 countries producing vehicle wheels and components for the transport industry, faced a R$700 million hit to revenue because of the tariff shock. Since it has four plants in Mexico and the U.S., the company did not suffer direct effects from the tariffs, as products made in Mexico are exempt when shipped to the U.S. market under regional trade agreements.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

But its production was hurt by a drop in sales volumes of steel wheels and chassis for heavy trucks. The impact was indirect: as tariffs reduced U.S. imports, freight volumes and freight prices fell, weakening transport operators\u2019 appetite to renew fleets.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cThe drop in volumes was much more related to weaker end demand than to a direct effect from tariffs,\u201d Renato Salum, Iochpe-Maxion\u2019s finance and investor relations director, told Valor. \u201cThe decline in truck production in North America last year was more an indirect than a direct consequence of the tariffs. The end buyer does not immediately feel the inflationary impact on prices, which increases uncertainty and leads to postponed purchase decisions, affecting demand throughout the chain, including in Mexico,\u201d Salum said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In financial terms, Iochpe-Maxion saw \u201ca reduction of roughly R$700 million in revenue, equivalent to about 35% of revenue in North American structural components,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Based on conversations with clients and analysis from specialized consultancies, the company expects demand to normalize in the second half of 2026.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cThat view is supported by rising orders for heavy-duty vehicles since late 2025, a trend that strengthened at the start of this year.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Rising prices<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

For Taurus, a new 10% tariff announced by Trump on the same day as the court ruling, under a different legal provision in U.S. trade law, was largely offset by the 7% price increase the company imposed on its products in the U.S. at the start of the tariff shock, according to Nuhs.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

To reduce the impact, the company also activated assembly lines at its Taurus USA subsidiary in Georgia, shifting to exports of parts, which carry lower value than fully assembled products. All pistols in the G family are now made at the U.S. unit.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cIn addition, we took radical measures on productivity, whether through headcount reduction or changes in our production processes,\u201d Nuhs told Valor. Even so, Taurus estimates it paid $18 million in tariffs in 2025 and early this year.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The company hired two law firms in the U.S. to seek reimbursement of those tariffs and recently decided to continue with only one.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mixed picture<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Foundry group Tupy cited the tariff shock as one of the factors pressuring sales of structural components such as engine blocks and cylinder heads in its fourth-quarter performance. Net revenue from that segment fell 5.1% year on year, to R$1.31 billion in the period.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

For this year, Tupy\u2019s management said on the earnings call that it sees positive signs in the external environment, with reduced tariff-related uncertainty translating into higher orders from automakers, which should lift Tupy\u2019s production from the second half onward. The company declined to comment.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In a report, analysts at Banco Safra said the removal of the 50% tariff should improve the electrical equipment manufacturer WEG\u2019s competitiveness, allowing it to resume direct exports from Brazil to the U.S. rather than relying on Mexico as an intermediary.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In an interview with Valor in October last year, Chief Financial Officer Andr\u00e9 Rodrigues said the company\u2019s Mexican unit was almost entirely dedicated to the U.S. market.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

On the fourth-quarter earnings call, after the tariffs were struck down, Rodrigues said it was still too early to draw a new scenario and noted that the 50% tariff on imports of steel, aluminum and several related products remains in force under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In a note on the results, Citi said that although revenue remained under pressure, WEG\u2019s 34% gross margin in the fourth quarter suggests the company \u201cis improving its mix and dealing with tariff effects more quickly than the market had anticipated.\u201d WEG declined to comment.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

_____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n

04\/01\/2026<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

JBS OPENS \u2018SUPERPROTEIN\u2019 R&D HUB IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL<\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

JBS Biotech unit in Florian\u00f3polis receives $37m investment<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

JBS<\/strong> is set to inaugurate a research center in Florian\u00f3polis focused on the development of cultivated protein. Named JBS Biotech, the facility has been designed to operate across the full value chain\u2014from early-stage research to industrial scale\u2014in the market for lab-built protein supplements derived from cells similar to animal muscle tissue.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The multinational\u2019s biotechnology arm aims to advance research and development to produce \u201csuperproteins\u201d with tailored characteristics. According to CEO Gilberto Tomazoni, \u201cit is not meat, but cultivated protein.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Lab-produced biotechnology will serve as a food supplement ingredient to be used in shakes, cereal bars, and JBS products. Tomazoni added that the goal of JBS Biotech is to accelerate proof-of-concept work and pave the way for future industrial-scale applications.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The new complex includes more than 20 laboratories spread across 4,000 square meters at the Sapiens Parque innovation center. Chemical engineer Fernanda Berti, who holds a postdoctoral degree from the European Institute of Excellence in Tissue Engineering and Regenerative Medicine, will lead the division.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Four years ago, JBS announced a $100 million investment to enter the cultivated protein segment. The outlay included the construction of the biotechnology center in Florian\u00f3polis, which received $37 million, and, in Spain, the first cultivated protein plant of BioTech Foods, in which the multinational is the majority shareholder.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Berti said the research center in Santa Catarina\u2019s capital focuses on developing technology rather than finished products\u2014namely functional proteins and bioactive ingredients that complement JBS\u2019s existing portfolio. \u201cWe are entering a new frontier, where it is possible to understand the potential of protein-based foods at the molecular level and develop solutions with tailored nutritional and functional characteristics for different consumer needs,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The global protein supplements market is estimated to have generated $30 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $63 billion by 2033, growing at an average annual rate of 10.3% between 2026 and 2033, according to U.S. market research firm Grand View Research. The consultancy said rising awareness of health and wellness is driving the segment.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tomazoni said consumer behavior is increasingly focused on longevity and quality of life. \u201cNow we have the [weight-loss] injections, a medical technology that has been changing consumer behavior. This is a group seeking advanced precision nutrition,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source:Valor International<\/em><\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

_____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n

04\/09\/2026<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

BRAZIL COURT SUSPENDS EXPORT TAX FOR FIVE FOREIGN OIL MAJORS<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Equinor, TotalEnergies, Petrogal, Shell, Repsol Sinopec win injunction as government prepares appeal<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A federal court in Rio de Janeiro has granted a preliminary injunction to five oil companies, suspending the collection of a 12% tax on crude oil exports, which the government introduced in March through a provisional presidential decree. The tax was designed as a way for the federal government to offset measures adopted to contain the impact of rising oil prices in the domestic market following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. The decision, issued by federal judge Humberto de Vasconcelos Sampaio of the 1st Federal Court of Rio de Janeiro on Tuesday (7), benefits multinational groups Equinor, TotalEnergies, Petrogal, Shell, and Repsol Sinopec. According to sources, the government plans to appeal.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In their filing, the companies argued that Provisional Presidential Decree No. 1,340\/2026, which set the 12% rate, distorted the fiscal nature of the export tax, claiming it is being used as a \u201cpurely revenue-raising instrument.\u201d The decision states that the plaintiffs alleged violations of the principles of legal certainty, equality, free competition, and ability to pay, as well as the need to comply with the principle of prior notice, given the tax\u2019s clearly fiscal purpose.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The judge noted that the federal government argued there was no creation of a new tax, but merely a change in the rate. According to the ruling, the government maintained that the previous zero rate reflected an economic policy aimed at encouraging exports and that taxpayers have no acquired right to maintain a preferential rate. \u201cHowever, this argument does not hold in light of the specific regulatory context of Decree No. 1,340\/2026,\u201d the judge wrote.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The ruling further states that the explanatory memorandum of the provisional measure indicates that the 12% rate has a primarily revenue-raising purpose, intended to finance government spending, without any connection to exchange rate policy, trade balance equilibrium, or external market regulation. \u201cWhen an extrafiscal tax is used for revenue-raising purposes, it loses the constitutional justification for exempting it from limitations on the taxing power, and the guarantees outlined in Article 150 of the Constitution must be observed. The Federal Supreme Court has already ruled this way in relation to the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF) and CIDE [a special tax used by the federal government to regulate specific sectors] when used as revenue instruments,\u201d the judge wrote.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A government source said the injunction reproduces Article 10 of the provisional decree but includes three new paragraphs. One of these inserted paragraphs states that \u201crevenue from the tax referred to in this article shall be allocated to meet the federal government\u2019s emergency fiscal needs, as provided by regulation.\u201d This language does not appear in the provisional presidential decree published in the Official Federal Gazette on March 12. Based on this passage, Judge Sampaio granted the injunction, stating that the export tax has a revenue-raising nature, which would not be allowed since it is classified as an extrafiscal tax.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cThe wording of Article 10 of Provisional Presidential Decree No. 1,340\/2026, by expressly providing that revenue from the Export Tax will be allocated to meet the federal government\u2019s emergency fiscal needs, clearly reveals the revenue-raising purpose of the measure. By linking the tax to the financing of public expenditures, the rule eliminates any claim that it serves as an instrument of exchange rate policy or foreign trade regulation,\u201d the judge wrote in the injunction.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Article 10 of the provisional measure contains no such paragraph or reference to \u201cmeeting the federal government\u2019s emergency fiscal needs.\u201d It merely states that \u201ca 12% export tax rate is established on crude petroleum oils or bituminous minerals classified under code 2709 of the Mercosur Common Nomenclature (NCM), applied to the total value of exports.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Government officials said it is clear that the judge, in granting the injunction, did not rely on the original text of the provisional presidential decree. \u201cThe decision was based on a provision that does not exist in the regulation,\u201d the source said. The government also argues that the temporary tax, created to mitigate the effects of the war, has an extrafiscal\u2014not revenue-raising\u2014nature, serving as an economic policy and market regulation tool. These arguments will be presented in the appeal.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Equinor\u2019s Brazil president, Veronica Coelho, said the provisional presidential decree has legal weaknesses and cannot serve a purely revenue-raising purpose. \u201cThis is the latest development for us. These uncertainties increasingly reinforce the perception of risk,\u201d she said on Wednesday (8) after attending the Brazilian Energy Leaders Forum in Rio. She added that the company invests more than $1 billion annually in Brazil, totaling about $25 billion between 2009 and 2030, underscoring the need for regulatory and fiscal stability.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Roberto Ardenghy, president of the Brazilian Petroleum Institute (IBP), said the decree is fragile and that the organization is considering legal action against the export tax. Petrobras, which is part of the IBP, did not support the initiative and voted against filing a lawsuit, according to sources. At the same event, Mines and Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira said oil companies are \u201cmaking a lot of money\u201d from oil \u201cspeculation\u201d in the current environment. \u201cWhy not contribute temporarily so we can lower diesel and gasoline prices?\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

_____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n

04\/09\/2026<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

JBS SEES CATTLE PRICES FALLING IN H2 AFTER CHINA QUOTA FILLED<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Weaker demand may create surplus of Brazilian beef<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The expected filling of Brazil\u2019s beef export quota to China by midyear, combined with a growing supply of feedlot cattle ready for slaughter, is likely to push cattle prices lower in the second half, JBS CEO Gilberto Tomazoni said on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A potential drop in demand for Brazilian beef after the annual Chinese quota of 1.1 million tonnes\u2014exempt from an additional 55% tariff\u2014is filled could generate excess supply that will need to be redirected to domestic and international markets, Tomazoni told journalists during the 12th Annual Brazil Investment Forum hosted by Bradesco BBI.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In addition to the roughly 600,000-tonne gap between China\u2019s quota and Brazil\u2019s export volume last year, Brazil will also lose tariff-free access for about 350,000 tonnes shipped at the end of 2025 but counted toward China\u2019s 2026 quota because they arrived at Chinese ports this year.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Even rising demand from other Southeast Asian countries and the United States\u2014where cattle supply remains tight\u2014will not be enough to absorb the roughly 950,000 tonnes China is expected to stop importing from Brazil in 2026, Tomazoni said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s a significant volume. China used to account for close to 50% of Brazil\u2019s beef exports,\u201d he said. \u201cMarkets are growing, but not at the pace needed to offset what China may no longer buy. Brazil is seeking new markets, but the U.S. imports different products [than China].\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

He added that, despite the ongoing downcycle in cattle supply, prices could still ease in the second half.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Despite China\u2019s quota limits and the war in the Middle East, Tomazoni and other industry executives at the forum expressed optimism about global meat demand.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Even before the conflict, consumption had been rising, supported by higher incomes and increased protein intake, said Minerva Foods CEO Fernando Galletti de Queiroz. The war has further heightened concerns over food security, he added.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cIn the short term, we are seeing countries increase their strategic reserves,\u201d Galletti said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Like Minerva and JBS, MBRF has seen higher logistics costs in the Middle East due to rerouted shipping and land transport, higher oil prices, and increased insurance premiums, said CEO Miguel Gularte. However, stronger demand across meat categories since the start of the conflict has allowed companies to pass on costs, he noted.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Galletti also pointed to opportunities to expand exports to markets still closed to Brazilian beef, such as Japan and South Korea, as well as to other Southeast Asian countries. Tomazoni highlighted potential gains in the European Union and Africa. In Brazil, the World Cup and elections are also expected to boost meat consumption, Gularte said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Although cattle supply for slaughter in Brazil is expected to tighten due to the livestock cycle, the country benefits from ongoing productivity gains driven by genetic improvements and better nutrition.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cThere is enormous room for growth. Brazil will set the tone in the global beef market,\u201d Tomazoni said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

_____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n

04\/10\/2026<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

APPEALS COURT KEEPS BRAZIL\u2019S OIL EXPORT TAX ON HOLD<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Judge rejects federal appeal, leaving injunction in place for five oil companies until a full appellate panel rules on the case<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

A federal appellate judge in Brazil has rejected the federal government\u2019s request and upheld a preliminary injunction suspending collection of the oil export tax for five oil companies operating in the country. The decision, issued late Thursday (9), came after the Lula administration appealed the ruling earlier that morning.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Carmen Silva Lima de Arruda, a judge at the 2nd Region Federal Regional Court (TRF-2), said the National Treasury Attorney-General\u2019s Office, which filed the appeal on behalf of the federal government, \u201cfailed to demonstrate the risk of concrete, serious and current harm arising from the maintenance of the challenged decision, and there is no evident prejudice in waiting for the final judgment of this interlocutory appeal, when the panel will examine the merits in detail.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

That means the injunction will remain in effect for the oil companies until the merits of the case are reviewed by a TRF-2 panel. The injunction was granted on Tuesday by federal judge Humberto de Vasconcelos Sampaio of the 1st Federal Court in Rio de Janeiro in favor of Equinor, TotalEnergies, Petrogal, Shell and Repsol Sinopec.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Arruda also said the government\u2019s argument that the injunction interferes with the economic policy adopted to soften the effects of the Middle East conflict \u201cdoes not prove the immediate and irreversible harm that would, by itself, justify suspending the effects of the challenged decision.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Appeal remains blocked<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The federal government temporarily reinstated the export tax at a 12% rate on crude oil in an effort to offset subsidies granted to diesel producers and importers in Brazil. The purpose of the subsidy is to prevent diesel prices from rising domestically, after the Middle East conflict sent Brent crude prices sharply higher.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The government\u2019s appeal challenged the injunction on both procedural and substantive grounds. \u201cThe federal government has already appealed, filing an interlocutory appeal with TRF-2, since the reasoning is based on an article of the MP [provisional presidential decree] that does not exist, and that nonexistent article was decisive to the judge\u2019s conclusion,\u201d the National Treasury Attorney-General\u2019s Office said in a statement before Arruda\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The injunction cited Article 10 of the provisional decree that temporarily created the export tax, but included three paragraphs that do not exist. One of those inserted paragraphs says that the \u201crevenue arising from the collection of the tax referred to in this article will be allocated to meet the federal government\u2019s emergency fiscal needs, as provided for in regulation.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

That passage does not appear in the provisional decree issued by the government and published in the Official Gazette on March 12. Based on that wording, the federal judge granted the injunction, saying the export tax had a revenue-raising purpose, which would not be allowed because it is an extrafiscal tax.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The article cited contains no paragraphs and no reference to \u201cmeeting the federal government\u2019s emergency fiscal needs.\u201d It says only that \u201ca 12% tax rate is hereby established on exports of crude petroleum oils or oils from bituminous minerals, classified under Mercosur Common Nomenclature code 2709, levied on the total value of exports.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Government contests ruling\u2019s basis<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In its filing to the court, the National Treasury Attorney-General\u2019s Office argued that the text of the provisional decree \u201cdoes not provide, either expressly or implicitly, that revenue arising from the export tax will be allocated to meet the federal government\u2019s emergency fiscal needs.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cA reading of Article 10 of MP 1,340\/2026 (the actual one), as well as subsequent Article 11, which also deals with the export tax levied on exports of crude petroleum oils or oils from bituminous minerals, reveals no earmarking of the revenue obtained for any specific purpose,\u201d it added.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In the government\u2019s view, that alone should have been enough to overturn the injunction, but the appellate judge did not accept the argument.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Beyond what it sees as a procedural flaw, the government also argues that the temporary tax is in fact extrafiscal rather than revenue-driven, because it was adopted as part of a broader package to contain the effects of the Middle East conflict. It says the measure is therefore a matter of economic policy and market regulation.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cMP 1,340\/2026 did not create a tax with a purely revenue-raising purpose. On the contrary, it is part of a package of complementary and coordinated measures aimed at addressing a severe exogenous price shock in the international energy market, marked by high volatility and a sharp rise in oil prices,\u201d the government said in the appeal, seen by Valor.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The government also argued that the oil companies that went to court are all, without exception, \u201clarge companies, and their ability to absorb the higher tax burden must therefore be presumed, especially in a scenario of well-known appreciation in the products they sell, reflected in a considerable increase in profitability.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cIt is neither fair nor reasonable that the plaintiffs\u2019 interest in increasing their gains (yes, because that is what this is about) should prevail over society\u2019s interest in keeping inflation under control and maintaining the full functioning of different sectors of productive activity,\u201d the National Treasury Attorney-General\u2019s Office argued in the appeal.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

As Valor previously reported, Roberto Ardenghy, president of the Brazilian Petroleum Institute, or IBP, said the provisional decree is weak and that the group is considering legal action.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Equinor, Shell and the IBP said they would not comment on the government\u2019s appeal.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com<\/a><\/p>\n

_____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n

04\/16\/2026<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

BRAZILIAN COMPANIES FLAG GROWING RISKS TO STAYING AFLOAT<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Wave of balance-sheet warnings reflects tighter liquidity and mounting debt pressures<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

The financial troubles facing a group of listed companies have triggered an unprecedented wave of warnings in financial statements, often issued by management itself, pointing to material uncertainty related to the companies\u2019 ability to continue as a going concern. When that happens, the common thread is usually a lack of sufficient short-term funds to cover debt coming due soon.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In the latest earnings season, cancer care provider Oncocl\u00ednicas, petrochemical company Braskem, fashion retailer Marisa, supermarket chain GPA, hospital group Kora Sa\u00fade and ethanol, sugar and bioenergy producer Ra\u00edzen all published financial statements carrying that disclaimer. Among them, GPA and Ra\u00edzen filed for out-of-court debt restructuring this year.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A Valor survey showed that at the end of 2024, those companies had combined positive shareholders\u2019 equity of R$23.6 billion. A year later, the combined equity of the groups carrying going-concern warnings had fallen to negative R$13.7 billion.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Broadly speaking, the picture boiled down to three situations: erosion of equity at Oncocl\u00ednicas, Kora, GPA and Marisa; a swing into negative equity at Ra\u00edzen; or an already negative equity position that deteriorated further at Braskem.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The view is that high interest rates, demand weakened by a tougher environment and company-specific management problems hurt results and are likely to prompt similar warnings from more companies this year.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Pressure from debt, liquidity<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Oncocl\u00ednicas, which released its management report last week, said in the notes to its financial statements that the uncertainty is tied to R$430.8 million deemed lost after investments in Banco Master, in addition to the \u201ccollapse\u201d of Unimed Ferj, which totaled R$861 million. The company also cited a \u201cdecline in recurring revenue\u201d following a review of its commercial policy, making it also an operational issue.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Management said the rise in the company\u2019s total leverage ratio was driven mainly by the macroeconomic backdrop in 2025, including higher interest rates and rising defaults.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

On the risks to the company\u2019s continuity, Deloitte said Oncocl\u00ednicas posted a consolidated net loss of R$3.6 billion in 2025 and had negative working capital of R$2.3 billion in December 2025. In other words, short-term debt exceeded short-term assets by more than R$2 billion. A year earlier, that figure had been positive at R$2.2 billion.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

When a company breaches covenants agreed in contracts with creditors, debt can be accelerated, creating a snowball effect because the early maturity swells total gross debt.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

At Braskem, KPMG said in the company\u2019s 2025 financial statements that the material uncertainty surrounding its ability to continue as a going concern was based on consolidated negative equity of R$16.5 billion and negative working capital of R$9.7 billion. That means short-term liabilities exceeded short-term assets by almost R$10 billion.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In explaining the rise in this risk, Braskem cited years of weaker-than-expected global demand and excess global supply, which led to a deterioration in the financial condition of both the company and Braskem Idesa, its joint venture with Mexico\u2019s Idesa group formed in 2010.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The company said in its last year\u2019s financial report that it remains in operation, with business activities ongoing and initiatives under way to restructure its finances and rebuild liquidity.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Marisa under going-concern warning<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Another company that has been dealing with financial strain for some time, Marisa also disclosed material uncertainty related to its ability to continue as a going concern in its year-end 2025 earnings report. Its auditor, BDO, highlighted the issue in its opinion, although the fashion retailer itself used milder language when addressing the matter.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

To illustrate the amounts involved, nearly R$200 million in debt comes due within 12 months from the end of 2025, with another R$138 million maturing between 13 and 24 months. A year earlier, at the end of 2024, the total coming due ws R$123 million.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In Marisa\u2019s 2025 report, BDO cited a R$59.9 million net loss last year, down 81%, and negative working capital of R$360.7 million. A year earlier, the retailer\u2019s annual report had already highlighted the same going-concern issue, and working capital was also negative, though at a smaller R$308 million.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In the notes to its 2025 financial statements, Marisa acknowledged those figures but said it prepared the statements on the assumption that it will be able to meet its obligations. It also said management is implementing measures to restore its financial balance and equity position.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

At the same time, the retailer said its cash-flow projections point to the need to maintain financial discipline and carry out operational and financial measures.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Asked for comment, Braskem, GPA, Kora, Oncocl\u00ednicas and Ra\u00edzen declined to comment. Marisa said in a statement that the emphasis mentioned by its auditors does not represent a new development, as it had already been disclosed in previous periods, and reaffirmed that its financial statements adequately reflect the retailer\u2019s equity and financial position, in compliance with Brazilian accounting standards.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

_____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n

04\/22\/2026<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

BRAZIL\u2019S Q1 EARNINGS SET TO HINGE ON OIL, RATES AND WAR<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Higher oil prices may lift exporters\u2019 results, but companies tied to domestic economy face weaker consumption, high borrowing costs and mounting inflation pressure<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brazil\u2019s first-quarter earnings season, which will gather pace in the coming weeks, is set to be shaped heavily by local and global macroeconomic forces, as still-high interest rates and slowing consumer demand at home collide with the escalating conflict in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Company fundamentals are once again expected to take a back seat.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Fourth-quarter results had already confirmed analysts\u2019 concerns, showing a real economy squeezed by high borrowing costs. But they also offered a clear picture of how geopolitical tensions, inflation and the reshaping of global supply chains are likely to steer corporate performance in the first quarter and throughout 2026.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cThe fourth-quarter earnings season was weaker than expected and weaker than what companies had been showing in 2025,\u201d said Fernando Ferreira, chief strategist at XP. Retail was the negative highlight, hit by slower gross domestic product growth and calendar effects that reduced store traffic in December.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cWe already thought it would be a weaker season because of the impact of interest rates on the real economy. And that was, to some extent, what happened,\u201d said Carlos Eduardo Sequeira, head of research at BTG Pactual. \u201cWe saw a sharp slowdown in profit, revenue and EBITDA growth during the fourth quarter compared with earlier periods.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Aline Cardoso, head of equity research and strategy at Santander, said the earnings season showed a wide gap between domestic companies, whose results were hurt by 15% interest rates, and commodity exporters, which performed somewhat better. \u201cIt was a season marked by a resilient but slowing economy, and by increasingly cautious corporate messaging,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Export boost<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

For the first quarter, the divide between companies exposed to the domestic market and exporters is expected to widen. The main swing factor for earnings forecasts will be oil prices.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The war involving the United States, Israel and Iran has sharply altered expectations, driving up profit estimates for Brazil\u2019s stock market because of the heavy weight of companies such as state-owned oil giant Petrobras.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cThe market has been much more focused on macro than on company-specific factors,\u201d XP\u2019s Ferreira said. \u201cThe war and the spike in oil prices are proving to be a very strong trigger for earnings revisions. War, oil, inflation and interest rates are having a far greater impact than company-specific fundamentals in the first quarter.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Although Prio\u2019s management said on an earnings call that the first quarter still partly reflects the release of Venezuelan inventories after the fall of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro\u2019s government, analysts see the oil producer as the main near-term beneficiary because it is less constrained by hedge positions than rivals Brava and PetroRec\u00f4ncavo.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In a recent report upgrading Petrobras to buy, Bank of America said higher oil prices should boost the state-controlled company\u2019s results, especially cash generation for shareholders, easing recent concerns that it might need to take on more debt to maintain dividend payments.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Vale and trade tensions in focus<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Another investor favorite in the current period of instability is Vale. In its first-quarter operating results, the Brazilian mining company showed resilient iron ore output and strong performance in base metals, which analysts see as important catalysts, together with high metal prices, for its financial results in the period.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The first quarter will also reflect the fallout from the tariff and trade dispute with the United States. The U.S. Supreme Court\u2019s decision in February to strike down Donald Trump\u2019s sweeping tariffs has already lifted sentiment among Brazilian exporters.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tupy, a Brazilian maker of engine blocks and other auto parts, expects a significant increase in orders from automakers starting in the second half, while gun manufacturer Taurus said the 10% tariff imposed by Trump has already been offset by price increases passed on in the U.S. market.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Under pressure<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

But companies tied to the local economy, already grappling with a slowdown, now face worsening conditions. The surge in fuel prices is putting pressure on supply chains and threatens to rekindle inflation, limiting the Central Bank\u2019s room to maneuver.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cWe now see 250 basis points of cuts in the Selic base rate, with the Central Bank acting more cautiously, and that has a negative impact on companies,\u201d Sequeira said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

With rate cuts likely to be slow and gradual, bringing little immediate relief to financial expenses, companies are moving ahead with their own adjustments. The push for technological innovation to reduce fixed costs has surged, and mentions of artificial intelligence in recent earnings calls have tripled, Santander\u2019s Cardoso said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Domestic companies and retailers are now recalibrating their expectations for the second quarter, when a boost to consumption from the World Cup and the traditional expansion of income-transfer programs in an election year are expected to provide the support that was missing at the start of the year, analysts said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

_____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n

04\/22\/2026<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

COMPANIES DELAY LOCAL BOND DEALS AS DEMAND WEAKENS<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

High rates, war and a growing number of corporate restructurings are making investors more cautious, leading firms to shelve fixed-income offerings<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brazilian companies are postponing local bond deals, including financial bills and debentures, as investors grow more risk-averse. Concerns that interest rates will remain high for longer, combined with global inflation pressures linked to the war in Iran and a fresh wave of corporate restructurings, have heightened caution.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

As a result, companies have chosen to shelve planned issuances for now due to weak demand, people familiar with the matter said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

At home, rising corporate leverage has become a growing concern. Investors fear that more companies could join the list of distressed borrowers, which has expanded in recent weeks, prompting closer scrutiny across the market.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

More recently, delays in the release of financial statements by sanitation company Aegea further dented sentiment. Investors are increasingly stepping back from private credit or waiting for better market conditions before committing new capital.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The risk-off mood has also affected financial bills issuance. RCI Brasil, the local financing arm of Renault Group, postponed a fundraising citing \u201ccurrent market conditions,\u201d while automaker Stellantis delayed closing its own deal. The impact has extended to direct-lending funds, known in Brazil as FIDCs.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

According to asset managers and banking executives, part of the capital is being redirected toward safer instruments, such as certificates of deposit issued by large banks and backed by the Credit Guarantee Fund.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Other investors are simply holding cash, waiting for clearer visibility before reallocating funds.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

One senior fixed-income banker said spreads in private credit deals had been below what he described as a \u201cnatural level,\u201d reflecting strong demand at a time when funds were still deploying earlier inflows.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In recent weeks, however, many transactions have triggered so-called \u201cmarket flex\u201d clauses, which allow banks to adjust terms such as pricing or maturities in response to significant changes in market conditions. That was the case with deals by mobility infrastructure company Motiva and Minas Gerais power utility Cemig, sources familiar with the transactions said. Cemig ultimately raised R$1.15 billion, roughly half of the initially planned amount.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cActivating this type of clause is not common. It gives banks the right to adjust terms, such as tenor or pricing, in response to extreme events,\u201d said Gustavo Rugani, a partner in capital markets at TozziniFreire.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A banking executive said the use of such clauses reflects the fact that many deals brought to market this month were structured earlier this year, when sentiment was more optimistic and expectations pointed to sharper cuts in the Selic base rate.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Unsold bonds<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Given the current backdrop, some companies have opted to wait for improved conditions and withdrawn offerings altogether, another market participant said. \u201cFor some, it now makes more sense to rely on bank financing,\u201d the person said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A further deterrent has been the fact that many recent deals\u2014such as a R$1.56 billion issuance by fuel distributor Vibra\u2014ended up being largely taken onto banks\u2019 balance sheets. In Brazil, underwriters typically provide firm underwriting, meaning they absorb any unsold bonds.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cBanks ended up holding more securities than they wanted and now have less room and appetite, which also helps explain the slowdown in issuance,\u201d another banking executive said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

According to this source, the reopening of dollar-denominated issuance for Brazilian companies has also led larger issuers to consider tapping international markets instead of raising funds locally.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Market mood<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Pedro Breviglieri, a credit manager at Reach, said the environment remains highly fluid, making it difficult to determine whether the recent widening in spreads will persist. He noted that an end to the war in Iran could help clarify the outlook.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

One issue being closely watched is whether the slowdown in primary issuance could lead to a shortage of assets for fund managers to allocate. \u201cIf that happens, we could see a shift toward the secondary market, which would also affect spread dynamics,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Breviglieri said the current environment differs from 2023, when Brazil\u2019s private credit market was last shaken. At that time, unexpected events such as the accounting scandal at retailer Americanas undermined investor confidence. Now, stress appears more concentrated among companies struggling to deleverage in a high-rate outlook.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Fabio Jacob, head of local debt at Scotiabank, said the situation is far from comparable to 2023 \u201cbecause there is no concern about systemic risk.\u201d Companies that can afford to wait are likely to delay issuance until conditions improve, he said. \u201cIt takes time to unlock the market. Since March, many bonds have remained on banks\u2019 balance sheets, and we need to wait until that inventory is gradually distributed.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Structural demand<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Despite the current challenges, the outlook for Brazil\u2019s private credit market remains broadly positive, according to Luis Sales, head of products at Banco Fator.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cThe market remains strong and its structural outlook has not changed,\u201d he said. \u201cWhat we are seeing is more of a postponement of issuance decisions amid both domestic and external noise. But given leverage levels, companies will still need funding to roll over debt and sustain operations.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Rugani also noted that refinancing needs should soon bring issuers back to the market. \u201cCompanies still need funding and need to refinance more expensive debt,\u201d he said. \u201cEven expectations of a Selic rate at 12% by the end of 2026 were already encouraging liability management, but the need to raise funds remains.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Thiago Junqueira, a partner at law firm Pinheiro Neto, said the market reflects a period of increased investor scrutiny. He noted that caution persists, as further debt restructuring cases are expected to emerge.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

For now, market participants say there is little visibility on when conditions will improve. One executive said any recovery is likely to begin at the company level, with firms strengthening balance sheets and reducing leverage.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The companies mentioned declined to comment.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

_____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n

04\/27\/2026<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

BRAZILIAN FAMILIES\u2019 SPARE INCOME FALLS TO LOWEST SINCE 2011<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Higher debt costs squeeze disposable income even as strong labor market lifts wages, according to Tend\u00eancias<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brazilian families have had less money left at the end of the month to spend on consumption beyond basic items and the payment of taxes and debt. That may help explain voters\u2019 discomfort with the economic outlook and the worsening approval ratings for the federal government, despite strong employment and labor income in the country. The issue has also moved onto the radar of presidential campaigns.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Household disposable income after spending on essential items, taxes, and debt service is at its lowest level since 2011, when the series compiled by Tend\u00eancias Consultoria begins.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In February, the amount \u201cleft over\u201d from households\u2019 broader income mass after covering those expenses was 21%, the consultancy said. At the start of 2024, it was 23.6%. That is a very significant deterioration in a short period, said Alessandra Ribeiro, partner and director of macroeconomics and sector analysis. The indicator peaked in March 2011, at 27.2%, and again in June 2020, at 27%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The indicator starts with households\u2019 broader income mass, which includes wages as well as other sources such as pensions, social benefits, rent, and dividends. From that total, Tend\u00eancias deducts inflation on essential items in housing, including rent and fees, fuels and energy such as cooking gas and electricity bills; transportation, including public transport and vehicle fuel; health and personal care, including pharmaceutical and optical products and health services; communications; education; and food consumed at home. The calculation considers the changes and weights of the IPCA, Brazil\u2019s benchmark inflation index.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

It also deducts interest and principal payments on debt, based on the average of credit lines tracked by the Central Bank. But Tend\u00eancias makes adjustments, including classifying credit-card installment purchases as credit. Finally, data from the Federal Revenue Service are used to deduct income tax and social security contributions. \u201cIt is an indicator of what is left for other types of consumption,\u201d Ribeiro said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The sharp decline in disposable income, especially since 2025, has been driven by higher debt-service costs, she said. \u201cWe see a very significant increase in how much credit payments are eating into income, while food, which has a very relevant weight, alleviated inflation a lot in 2025,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In 2025, the price of food consumed at home rose 1.43%, while headline inflation was 4.26%. In the 12 months through March 2026, food consumed at home rose 0.53%, compared with a 4.14% increase in the IPCA.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Higher rates<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The backdrop for the heavier debt burden in household budgets is interest rates, Ribeiro said. \u201cIt is a scenario of high interest rates for a long time,\u201d she said. \u201cThroughout 2025, we saw a clear deterioration in the quality of household credit portfolios, with families turning more to emergency credit lines such as revolving credit cards and overdrafts. When people move into those lines, they pay higher interest rates.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

That is compounded by tighter credit supply, as banks have also become more cautious amid rising delinquency. \u201cWith this combination, even a strong labor market has not been enough to offset this financial burden.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Household debt was close to half, 49.7%, of Gross National Disposable Income in January this year, noted Marcelo Gazzano, an economist at Bradesco. The figure is low compared with other countries, he said, since household credit in Brazil as a share of GDP is about 10 percentage points below the average for emerging economies, based on data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Still, Brazilian household debt is almost twice the level seen in 2007, he noted.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bradesco estimates that, all else being equal, a 1% increase in the stock of household credit also raises the share of income committed to debt payments by 1%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Over the past two years, household debt has increased by 2 percentage points, with half of that growth explained by the expansion of non-payroll-deductible personal credit, Gazzano said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Vehicle financing also increased and now accounts for almost 6% of household income. Payroll-deductible loans for private-sector workers, boosted in 2025, represented 1.2% of income in January 2026, Gazzano said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

He also noted that the Central Bank\u2019s Credit Cost Indicator reached 37.5% a year in February, the highest rate since 2013. That rate is about 4.5 percentage points higher than at the end of 2024, Gazzano said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Political campaigns<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ultimately, Tend\u00eancias\u2019 disposable-income indicator is a measure of well-being that helps explain other developments, such as the worsening evaluation of the government despite a dynamic labor market and a strong increase in income mass, Ribeiro said. \u201cWe can understand where this discomfort is coming from.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Part of the movement is also related to the large-scale entry of more low-income families into the banking system, driven by the pandemic and by innovations such as Pix, Brazil\u2019s instant-payment system, and fintechs.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cWe are still thinking about how to measure this type of effect, which obviously has a positive side. But our assessment is that the problem of high debt is indeed being amplified by this rapid inclusion of households without a foundation in financial education,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Household debt and the perception that purchasing power has fallen over the past year have taken on a central role in shaping the pre-presidential campaign strategies of President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva, of the Workers\u2019 Party, and Senator Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party of Rio de Janeiro. Fl\u00e1vio\u2013son of former President Jair Bolsonaro\u2013has been using the higher cost of living to appeal to undecided voters.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The government is preparing a new program to refinance debts at lower costs, a kind of \u201cDesenrola 2.0,\u201d which could bring some short-term relief, Ribeiro said. In her view, the initiative makes sense in a context of high delinquency and given the availability of resources in the Operations Guarantee Fund (FGO), although it needs greater alignment with banks than the first version did so that renegotiation mechanisms are truly effective.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cBut it is a completely short-term solution. It will not resolve the dynamics over time when we think about the inclusion of low-income people in the banking system unless it comes with a more structural financial-education agenda,\u201d Ribeiro said. \u201cThe risk is having to do another program again soon,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Fiscal concerns<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In structural terms, Brazil also needs to resolve its systematic problem of high interest rates, especially to navigate shocks such as the war in the Middle East with more room to maneuver, Ribeiro noted. \u201cWe now face the risk that interest rates will stay higher than we had imagined, given the effects of the conflict. This situation for families should remain tight for some time.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brazil\u2019s structural problem of high interest rates, in turn, is linked to the fiscal issue. Ribeiro said. In her view, it is important that, starting in 2027, reforms are advanced to improve the dynamics of mandatory spending, while the country continues to close loopholes that lead to revenue losses, such as tax expenditures. \u201cThe efficiency of many of those lines is questionable,\u201d Ribeiro said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

If Brazil can send some signal from next year onward that debt dynamics will be stable through 2030, it will already be possible to reduce the risk premium charged to the country, which would have a benign effect on financial variables and the base rate Selic, she said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bradesco estimates that a 100-basis-point decline in the Selic reduces the Credit Cost Indicator by 50 bp and the amount spent on debt by 1% over a six-month period, Gazzano said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

_____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n

04\/27\/2026<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

EXPERTS CONCERNED ABOUT PLAN TO MITIGATE FUEL PRICE HIKES<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Due to its dependence on proceedings in Congress, there are still doubts about the extent of measure, experts say<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The supplementary bill (PLP) that allows the federal government to use extra oil revenues to offset tax reductions on fuel could effectively prevent larger price hikes during periods of high volatility, experts in the sector say. However, since it depends on the National Congress, there are still doubts about the measure\u2019s extent.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

If approved, the PLP grants the government flexibility by permitting the offset of potential revenue losses\u2014due to tax reductions\u2014with increased revenue resulting from oil price shocks. The Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF) requires tax cuts to be compensated by increases in other taxes. Since the beginning of the war, Brent crude oil has risen from a range of $65 to fluctuating between $95 and over $100 per barrel.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

However, economists view the measure with reservations, considering it negative for the fiscal scenario and with uncertain impacts on inflation.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

According to the PLP, revenue waivers can be applied to diesel, biodiesel, gasoline, and ethanol. Until now, the government has implemented measures to prevent price increases in diesel, biodiesel, and aviation kerosene (QAV). However, gasoline and ethanol have yet to have PIS\/Cofins cut to zero.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cWe always view favorably measures that can be taken to lower product prices,\u201d said James Thorp Neto, president of the National Federation of Fuel and Lubricant Trade (Fecombust\u00edveis).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Among the federal government\u2019s revenue sources in the oil and gas sector are royalties, special participation (on large fields), dividends, sales of oil from production-sharing in the pre-salt, and signature bonuses in area auctions.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In the case of royalties, the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) estimates revenue of R$89.61 billion in 2026, considering a Brent barrel price of $95.64. Of this total, the federal government is expected to retain R$36.07 billion.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This year, the ANP is expected to conduct an auction for the concession of 495 onshore and offshore oil and gas blocks. The highest bid for the signature bonus wins.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Another revenue source is the sale of pre-salt oil. Between 2018 and 2025, the federal government raised R$43.75 billion, according to Pr\u00e9-Sal Petr\u00f3leo (PPSA), which manages production-sharing contracts. The state-owned company estimates revenue of R$24.14 billion in 2026 from pre-salt oil sales from past and upcoming auctions this year.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

PPSA is expected to auction 106.5 million barrels from six pre-salt areas in July. The expectation is that most of the load will be delivered in 2027, except for the Bacalhau field, which may occur in August this year\u2014payments are made upon oil delivery.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

According to an industry source, if the government\u2019s proposal is approved, it will have more effects downstream but is not expected to affect oil and fuel producers. The industry\u2019s main concern, the source says, is the inclusion of the oil export tax in this equation. The tax is under judicial discussion between foreign oil companies and the government.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s no need to include an additional tax [the export tax]. Revenue from royalties and special participation is sufficient to offset tax exemptions. The export tax has a clear revenue-raising objective, which should not happen.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Former ANP director and consultant David Zylberstajn believes the uncertainty regarding compensation lies in the National Congress\u2019s receptivity to the measure. \u201cIn my opinion, the big question mark is what kind of amendments or discussions might arise,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

He emphasizes that diesel is used in agribusiness, freight, and passenger transport. Meanwhile, there are alternatives to gasoline that can reduce price pressures for the end consumer, which is not the case with diesel, Zylberstajn noted.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Evaristo Pinheiro, president of Refina Brasil, an association of private refineries, highlighted that the measures do not directly impact refineries, but the entity has been urging the government to reduce to zero PIS\/Cofins for crude oil used in refining, as it did with diesel. According to him, when oil products have taxes cut to zero and crude oil does not, there is an accumulation of tax credits.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cIf I can\u2019t pass on a higher price, I\u2019m forced to reduce production,\u201d said Pinheiro. According to him, private refineries accumulate R$50 million per month in tax credits on diesel and jet fuel (QAV). The amount could exceed R$230 million per month if gasoline is exempt from PIS\/Cofins.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

_____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n

04\/28\/2026<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

CHINA TIGHTENS GRIP ON BRAZIL\u2019S CAR MARKET, TRIPLES EXPORTS<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Shipments hit $2.16bn in Q1, lifting Brazil to third-largest market; imports surge ahead of higher duties and on strong demand for Chinese EVs<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Between January and March 2026, China exported $2.16 billion worth of vehicles to Brazil, nearly triple the $763.8 million from the same period in 2025. This total includes internal combustion engine cars, which, although still less dominant, doubled in value, indicating that Chinese interest in the Brazilian market extends beyond electrified vehicles. Additionally, the total value of cars exported by China to Brazil in the first quarter of this year exceeded the $1.17 billion seen in the first quarter of 2024, which had been a previous record for that period.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

With this performance, Brazil jumped from seventh to the third-largest destination for vehicles between the first quarters of 2025 and 2026, behind only Russia and the United Kingdom. In electrified vehicles\u2014which include fully electric and hybrid models\u2014Brazil rose from fifth to third place, behind Belgium and the United Kingdom. In the ranking of internal combustion cars, Brazil also gained prominence, moving up from 16th to seventh place.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The data comes from Chinese customs and considers shipments made in the first quarter. Some of the vehicles are still in transit and have not yet arrived in Brazil. Shipments of automobiles typically take between 40 and 60 days from China to customs clearance in Brazil.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Higher import tariffs, a favorable exchange rate, and a wave of model launches are among the factors behind the faster pace of Chinese vehicle arrivals in Brazil, according to experts. They also note that the growing presence of Chinese cars on Brazilian streets reflects the consolidation of brands in a geopolitical context marked by rising protectionism, global uncertainty, and China\u2019s difficulty in boosting domestic demand\u2014factors that have contributed to closer trade ties between Brazil and China.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Data from Brazil\u2019s Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex\/MDIC), which registers what has already cleared customs in Brazil, shows part of the impact of Chinese cars. In the first quarter, Brazilian imports of vehicles from China reached $1.5 billion, up 552.5% from the same period of 2025. Chinese manufacturers supplied 65.6% of all cars imported by Brazil. Argentina ranked second, with 11.3% and $253.2 million, down 25.5%, also from January to March.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

According to Tulio Cariello, director of content and research at the Brazil-China Business Council (CEBC), the trend reflects an anticipation of the final increase set by the Brazilian government in its current schedule of higher import taxes on electric and hybrid vehicles. Tariffs, he noted, are expected to reach 35% in July this year, up from the current 28% for plug-in hybrids and 25% for electric vehicles.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Reports released by the automotive industry, noted Andr\u00e9 Val\u00e9rio, an economist at Inter, show that vehicle imports accelerated in 2021, but there was a sharp inflection in mid-2023, when the debate over the current tariff hike agenda for electrified vehicles intensified. The schedule was set in 2023 and has been applied since January 2024, with gradual increases in import tariffs. Rates started at 10% and will reach a ceiling of 35% in July. Before that, imports of electric and hybrid vehicles were tariff-free. Val\u00e9rio noted that, beyond this schedule, the increase in shipments from China to Brazil also reflects a more aggressive sales push, driven by the automotive industry cycle, with the launch of 2026\/2027 models.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The increase in the volume of imports of made-in-China cars also reflects, in parallel, rising demand for the type of vehicle offered by Chinese manufacturers, said Cariello, of the CEBC. \u201cMany people want to buy electric cars, which today are synonymous with Chinese cars. People see Chinese cars on the streets and recognize them as high-tech products.\u201d Cariello noted that China was by far the main supplier of electric cars to Brazil, accounting for 97% of imports from January to March. In the case of plug-in hybrids, the country also led by a wide margin, with 89% of imports.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

According to the Brazilian Electric Vehicle Association (ABVE), 74.1% of electrified vehicle sales in Brazil in 2025 were from Chinese manufacturers. BYD led the market with a 50.4% share. Total electrified vehicle sales reached 223,900 units last year, up 26% from 2024.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

There is a positive perception of Chinese products, said Cariello, which also applies to combustion-engine cars. \u201cChinese manufacturers are targeting the electric vehicle market, but this benefits China in other segments in Brazil as well.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Data from Anfavea, which represents Brazil\u2019s automotive industry, show that from January to March this year, vehicle registrations totaled 625,200 units, up 13.3% from the same period of 2025. Imports, which totaled 119,100 units, rose 5.6%. Made-in-China vehicles grew at a faster pace. Registrations reached 54,300 units, up 68.9%. When releasing first-quarter data, Anfavea president Igor Calvet recalled that in August last year, China surpassed Argentina as Brazil\u2019s top external supplier of vehicles, and in March, China marked eight consecutive months as Brazil\u2019s largest vehicle exporter.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cWe have significantly reduced purchases of vehicles from Argentina, which used to be our main source of imports. Some consumers have preferred electric cars, and China is highly competitive and the main global supplier,\u201d said Val\u00e9rio, of Inter. \u201cThey offer a very strong package: a technologically advanced car at a competitive price, along with the promise of lower fuel costs. The old image of Chinese cars\u2014cheap but with problems in spare parts\u2014has collapsed.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Data from the Foreign Trade Indicator (Icomex), released by the Brazilian Institute of Economics at Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre), show that the volume of Brazilian imports of durable consumer goods from China rose by 204.8% from January to March this year compared with the same period in 2025. In March alone, the increase reached 330.7%. Average prices, however, moved in the opposite direction, falling 9.6% in the first quarter compared to the same period of 2025. According to Secex data, automobiles accounted for 71% of Brazil\u2019s durable consumer goods imports from China in the first quarter of 2026. In total imports, the share of Chinese goods was 8.2%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Chinese data contrast with those from Argentina. The volume of Brazilian imports of durable consumer goods from Argentina fell 25.8% in the first quarter, while average prices remained virtually stable, up 0.3% compared to the same period of 2025. \u201cTariffs imposed by Brazil on vehicle imports were not enough to deter Chinese cars, because China has strong economies of scale and their prices ultimately offset the impact,\u201d said Lia Valls, a professor at UERJ and researcher at FGV Ibre.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A more favorable exchange rate for imports also helped create a more supportive environment for foreign purchases this year, Valls said. In the first quarter of 2025, the exchange rate per U.S. dollar averaged between R$5.80 and R$5.90. In the same period this year, it ranged between R$5.20 and R$5.30.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

For Welber Barral, a partner at BMJ, Chinese government data also show that trade diversion occurred in some cases. He highlighted Mexico, which often serves as a gateway to the U.S. market. From January to March 2025, Chinese vehicle exports to Mexico totaled $1.4 billion, making it the third-largest destination at the time. That position was taken by Brazil, and Mexico dropped to 12th place. Chinese vehicle exports to Mexico fell by nearly half in the first quarter of this year, to $750.8 million.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

For other destinations, China continued to boost vehicle exports this year. To Belgium, the top destination for Chinese electrified vehicles, exports totaled $2.1 billion from January to March 2026, a 47.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025. To the United Kingdom, ranked second, exports reached $2.2 billion, marking a 104.3% rise.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Valls, of FGV Ibre, also pointed to the geopolitical context, including trade rivalry between the United States and China, intensified under U.S. President Donald Trump. She also noted a broader environment of protectionist policies across multiple countries, while China maintains high levels of vehicle production. \u201cThis output needs to be absorbed by other countries, as China is struggling to boost domestic consumption.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Automobiles, Valls added, help China maintain its position as the largest source of Brazil\u2019s total imports. According to Secex, 26.3% of all Brazilian imports in the first quarter of this year came from China. At the same time, she noted, trade ties between Brazil and China have been strengthening, with an increasing share of Brazilian exports going to China. This trend has intensified amid Trump\u2019s tariff policy and the war in the Middle East, with oil shipments to China increasing.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

According to Cariello of the CEBC, the current flow of Chinese vehicles to Brazil is likely to remain strong in the coming months, as companies take advantage of the window of opportunity created by still-relatively low import tariffs. In the longer term, however, imports are expected to decline as Chinese automakers expand production in Brazil. At least five have confirmed local production. In addition to GWM and BYD, which have their own plants, Geely and Leapmotor have partnerships with Renault and Stellantis, respectively. GAC has announced it will begin producing cars in Brazil in 2027.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

_____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n

04\/28\/2026<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

HOUSEHOLD DEBT HITS RECORD HIGH, CENTRAL BANK SAYS<\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Brazilians are also committing bigger share of their income with servicing debt<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Amid discussions within the federal government about initiatives for renegotiating individual debts, both income commitment and household debt have reached record levels, according to Brazil\u2019s Central Bank. The monetary authority released the statistics for February.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Regarding income commitment, which considers the average amount for debt payments in a month relative to household income, the indicator reached 29.7%, surpassing the previous record of 29.5% set in January. This marks the highest level since the series began in 2005. The indicator has been on an upward trend since early 2024. In February of that year, income commitment was at 26.6% and increased to 27.8% in the same month of 2025.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The indicators of income commitment and population debt have drawn the government\u2019s attention, which is preparing a program focused on debt renegotiation. According to Finance Minister Dario Durigan, the program is expected to be launched this week by President Lula.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Household debt also continued to rise, reaching a record 49.9% in February. This indicator considers the total debt of individuals divided by their annual income. In January, it was at 49.8% of income.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Jucelia Lisboa, an economist and partner at Siegen Consultoria, notes that income growth has not been sufficient to absorb the rising cost of living and financial services. Additionally, high interest rates are straining household budgets. Lisboa also points out that the expansion of credit is more concentrated among families and consumer-oriented lines. \u201cThis movement supports economic activity in the short term but increases families\u2019 sensitivity to income and interest rate shocks, making debt more persistent in the absence of structural improvements in repayment capacity,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Central Bank\u2019s credit statistics more broadly showed that the average bank interest rate continued to rise. The rate reached 33.1% per year in March, up from 32.9% the previous month. The increase was concentrated in directed credit modalities, impacted by the rise of the Long-Term Rate (TLP) from the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), according to Fernando Rocha, the Central Bank\u2019s head of statistics. The TLP has a variable component calculated by inflation, and Brazil\u2019s 12-month official inflation (IPCA) rose to 4.14% in March from 3.81% in February.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cThis [TLP increase] directly translated into higher interest rates for directed credit. The spreads [difference between lending rates and funding rates] for directed credit remained stable,\u201d said Rocha. \u201cIf the interest rate grew by 0.7 percentage points and the spread varied zero, it means the funding cost also grew by 0.7 points.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The nominal growth rate of the credit balance over 12 months, which had been declining, saw an upward change from 9.6% to 9.7% between February and March. Rocha says it is necessary to wait for data from the coming months to determine whether the movement has been interrupted or if the stability was temporary.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In a statement, ASA economist Leonardo Costa highlighted the nearly stable pace. Regarding debt and income commitment, Costa stated that there are still no signs of a scenario reversal. \u201cThis situation remains the primary vulnerability factor in the credit cycle in the medium term,\u201d he says.By\u00a0Gabriel Shinohara\u00a0and\u00a0Alex Ribeiro\u00a0\u2014 Bras\u00edlia and S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

_____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n

04\/28\/2026<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

WAR DRIVES RISE IN CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL COSTS IN BRAZIL<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

FGV estimates conflict could add nearly 4 percentage points to sector index, pushing it close to 10% in 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The war in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is already pushing up construction costs in Brazil. That could raise the National Construction Cost Index (INCC) by 3.89 percentage points in 2026, bringing the indicator to 9.72% this year, according to Ibre-FGV.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Initially, the scale of the impact depended on the duration of the conflict and the intensity of its effects on global supply chains. In practice, however, the shock has been strong enough to make cost pass-through unavoidable, with increases already appearing in the sector, the study notes. The analysis was conducted by economists Ana Maria Castelo, Andr\u00e9 Braz, and Matheus Dias.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Prices for materials, transportation, and petrochemical inputs are rising. The survey, which consulted industrial input manufacturers for construction, identified widespread price adjustments between February and March, taking effect in April, with further increases expected in May.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

According to the economists, the war is also shifting the main cost driver in construction. \u201cUntil recently, cost dynamics were largely explained by labor, but the current scenario puts materials back at the center of sector inflation, increasing the risk of INCC index acceleration in the short and medium term,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The increase could also affect government housing programs such as My Home, My Life and Casa Brasil, said economist Ana Maria Castelo. The reason is the rise in unforeseen costs in projects with fixed contracts and pricing, which could create losses for construction companies.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In the non-metallic minerals group, which includes cement- and concrete-based products, the impact is estimated at around 1.34 percentage points on the index. With limited substitution options\u2014especially in infrastructure projects\u2014cost pass-through is more likely, reducing companies\u2019 ability to absorb increases. The sector is also heavily dependent on diesel and petroleum products used as additives and coke in production and transportation.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Plastic materials and PVC products are also among the most sensitive, given their petrochemical base. Inputs such as polyethylene and PVC resins are directly linked to oil and gas supply chains, increasing exposure to international volatility.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Even before the conflict, these products had already posted significant price increases, such as PVC pipes, which rose 16.29% over the 12 months through February. With the war, price adjustments could reach 35%, particularly for pipes and fittings. The impact on the INCC could reach up to 1.11 percentage points.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Paints and chemical products have an estimated potential impact of 0.31 percentage points on the INCC. As these materials are used in the final stages of construction, the effect tends to be lagged, affecting projects already underway. The increases are driven by higher costs of petrochemical inputs such as solvents and resins, as well as rising logistics costs. Projected adjustments are around 10%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In metals, the potential impact is estimated at 0.96 percentage points. Steel rebar and wire are the main drivers, with projected price increases of 13%. These products account for 5.30% of the index.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

According to the study, this segment behaves differently from others, as prices are more closely tied to China\u2019s industrial dynamics and global demand. In this case, the conflict acts more as an \u201camplifying factor\u201d rather than the primary cause.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In the finishing segment, ceramic tiles are expected to see price increases of 12%, with an estimated impact of 0.17 percentage points on the INCC. Ceramic production relies on natural gas in kilns, making the sector sensitive to energy shocks.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Additionally, some inputs used in enamels and pigments depend on global supply chains affected by recent instability. Even with a smaller direct impact, price increases tend to spread throughout the value chain due to the widespread use of these materials.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The S\u00e3o Paulo state construction industry association (Sinduscon-SP) is already observing rising material costs, according to its president, Yorki Estefan. He noted that the increase was reflected in the April INCC, released Monday (27), which rose 1.04% after a 0.36% increase in March.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Estefan said the impact is likely to be stronger on inputs with greater exposure to international markets. For construction companies, the immediate effect is higher project costs and additional pressure on margins, especially in long-term contracts. Depending on how long the scenario persists, companies may revise timelines, delay project launches, and become more selective in investments.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cIn the case of the My Home My Life housing program, the impact is likely to be more pronounced. Because it operates with tighter margins and predefined parameters, rising costs may affect the economic viability of new projects and slow production. That could require operational adjustments and possibly program refinements to preserve delivery capacity,\u201d Estefan said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

____<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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