{"id":98263,"date":"2026-04-22T11:47:39","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T14:47:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=98263"},"modified":"2026-04-22T11:47:39","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T14:47:39","slug":"brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil\u2019s Q1 earnings set to hinge on oil, rates and war"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\n
Higher oil prices may lift exporters\u2019 results, but companies tied to domestic economy face weaker consumption, high borrowing costs and mounting inflation pressure<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n

Brazil\u2019s first-quarter earnings season, which will gather pace in the coming weeks, is set to be shaped heavily by local and global macroeconomic forces, as still-high interest rates and slowing consumer demand at home collide with the escalating conflict in the Middle East.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

Company fundamentals are once again expected to take a back seat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Fourth-quarter results had already confirmed analysts\u2019 concerns, showing a real economy squeezed by high borrowing costs. But they also offered a clear picture of how geopolitical tensions, inflation and the reshaping of global supply chains are likely to steer corporate performance in the first quarter and throughout 2026.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

\u201cThe fourth-quarter earnings season was weaker than expected and weaker than what companies had been showing in 2025,\u201d said Fernando Ferreira, chief strategist at XP. Retail was the negative highlight, hit by slower gross domestic product growth and calendar effects that reduced store traffic in December.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

\u201cWe already thought it would be a weaker season because of the impact of interest rates on the real economy. And that was, to some extent, what happened,\u201d said Carlos Eduardo Sequeira, head of research at BTG Pactual. \u201cWe saw a sharp slowdown in profit, revenue and EBITDA growth during the fourth quarter compared with earlier periods.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Aline Cardoso, head of equity research and strategy at Santander, said the earnings season showed a wide gap between domestic companies, whose results were hurt by 15% interest rates, and commodity exporters, which performed somewhat better. \u201cIt was a season marked by a resilient but slowing economy, and by increasingly cautious corporate messaging,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Export boost<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

For the first quarter, the divide between companies exposed to the domestic market and exporters is expected to widen. The main swing factor for earnings forecasts will be oil prices.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

The war involving the United States, Israel and Iran has sharply altered expectations, driving up profit estimates for Brazil\u2019s stock market because of the heavy weight of companies such as state-owned oil giant Petrobras.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

\u201cThe market has been much more focused on macro than on company-specific factors,\u201d XP\u2019s Ferreira said. \u201cThe war and the spike in oil prices are proving to be a very strong trigger for earnings revisions. War, oil, inflation and interest rates are having a far greater impact than company-specific fundamentals in the first quarter.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Although Prio\u2019s management said on an earnings call that the first quarter still partly reflects the release of Venezuelan inventories after the fall of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro\u2019s government, analysts see the oil producer as the main near-term beneficiary because it is less constrained by hedge positions than rivals Brava and PetroRec\u00f4ncavo.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

In a recent report upgrading Petrobras to buy, Bank of America said higher oil prices should boost the state-controlled company\u2019s results, especially cash generation for shareholders, easing recent concerns that it might need to take on more debt to maintain dividend payments.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Vale and trade tensions in focus<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Another investor favorite in the current period of instability is Vale. In its first-quarter operating results, the Brazilian mining company showed resilient iron ore output and strong performance in base metals, which analysts see as important catalysts, together with high metal prices, for its financial results in the period.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

The first quarter will also reflect the fallout from the tariff and trade dispute with the United States. The U.S. Supreme Court\u2019s decision in February to strike down Donald Trump\u2019s sweeping tariffs has already lifted sentiment among Brazilian exporters.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Tupy, a Brazilian maker of engine blocks and other auto parts, expects a significant increase in orders from automakers starting in the second half, while gun manufacturer Taurus said the 10% tariff imposed by Trump has already been offset by price increases passed on in the U.S. market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Under pressure<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

But companies tied to the local economy, already grappling with a slowdown, now face worsening conditions. The surge in fuel prices is putting pressure on supply chains and threatens to rekindle inflation, limiting the Central Bank\u2019s room to maneuver.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

\u201cWe now see 250 basis points of cuts in the Selic base rate, with the Central Bank acting more cautiously, and that has a negative impact on companies,\u201d Sequeira said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

With rate cuts likely to be slow and gradual, bringing little immediate relief to financial expenses, companies are moving ahead with their own adjustments. The push for technological innovation to reduce fixed costs has surged, and mentions of artificial intelligence in recent earnings calls have tripled, Santander\u2019s Cardoso said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

Domestic companies and retailers are now recalibrating their expectations for the second quarter, when a boost to consumption from the World Cup and the traditional expansion of income-transfer programs in an election year are expected to provide the support that was missing at the start of the year, analysts said.<\/p>\n

*By\u00a0Felipe Laurence\u00a0and\u00a0Adriana Peraita\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Higher oil prices may lift exporters\u2019 results, but companies tied to domestic economy face weaker consumption, high borrowing costs and mounting inflation pressure       04\/22\/2026\u00a0 Brazil\u2019s first-quarter earnings season, which will gather pace in the coming weeks, is set to be shaped heavily by local and global macroeconomic forces, as still-high interest rates […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[26870,26871],"class_list":["post-98263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil","tag-rates-and-war"],"yoast_head":"\nBrazil\u2019s Q1 earnings set to hinge on oil, rates and war - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brazil\u2019s Q1 earnings set to hinge on oil, rates and war - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Higher oil prices may lift exporters\u2019 results, but companies tied to domestic economy face weaker consumption, high borrowing costs and mounting inflation pressure       04\/22\/2026\u00a0 Brazil\u2019s first-quarter earnings season, which will gather pace in the coming weeks, is set to be shaped heavily by local and global macroeconomic forces, as still-high interest rates […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-22T14:47:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Gelcy Bueno\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Gelcy Bueno\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Gelcy Bueno\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e\"},\"headline\":\"Brazil\u2019s Q1 earnings set to hinge on oil, rates and war\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-22T14:47:39+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/\"},\"wordCount\":847,\"keywords\":[\"Brazil\u2019s Q1 earnings set to hinge on oil\",\"rates and war\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Murray News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/\",\"name\":\"Brazil\u2019s Q1 earnings set to hinge on oil, rates and war - Murray Advogados\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-22T14:47:39+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"In\u00edcio\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/home\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Brazil\u2019s Q1 earnings set to hinge on oil, rates and war\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Murray Advogados\",\"description\":\"PLG International Lawyers\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e\",\"name\":\"Gelcy Bueno\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1ef2acfe966d6deacdeccd2a24ea89192c41fd05fc60e57b79021358a47f5641?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1ef2acfe966d6deacdeccd2a24ea89192c41fd05fc60e57b79021358a47f5641?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Gelcy Bueno\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/author\/news\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Brazil\u2019s Q1 earnings set to hinge on oil, rates and war - Murray Advogados","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Brazil\u2019s Q1 earnings set to hinge on oil, rates and war - Murray Advogados","og_description":"Higher oil prices may lift exporters\u2019 results, but companies tied to domestic economy face weaker consumption, high borrowing costs and mounting inflation pressure       04\/22\/2026\u00a0 Brazil\u2019s first-quarter earnings season, which will gather pace in the coming weeks, is set to be shaped heavily by local and global macroeconomic forces, as still-high interest rates […]","og_url":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/","og_site_name":"Murray Advogados","article_published_time":"2026-04-22T14:47:39+00:00","author":"Gelcy Bueno","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Gelcy Bueno","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/"},"author":{"name":"Gelcy Bueno","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e"},"headline":"Brazil\u2019s Q1 earnings set to hinge on oil, rates and war","datePublished":"2026-04-22T14:47:39+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/"},"wordCount":847,"keywords":["Brazil\u2019s Q1 earnings set to hinge on oil","rates and war"],"articleSection":["Murray News"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/","url":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/","name":"Brazil\u2019s Q1 earnings set to hinge on oil, rates and war - Murray Advogados","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2026-04-22T14:47:39+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-q1-earnings-set-to-hinge-on-oil-rates-and-war\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"In\u00edcio","item":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/home\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Brazil\u2019s Q1 earnings set to hinge on oil, rates and war"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/","name":"Murray Advogados","description":"PLG International Lawyers","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e","name":"Gelcy Bueno","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1ef2acfe966d6deacdeccd2a24ea89192c41fd05fc60e57b79021358a47f5641?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1ef2acfe966d6deacdeccd2a24ea89192c41fd05fc60e57b79021358a47f5641?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Gelcy Bueno"},"url":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/author\/news\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98263","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98263"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98263\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":98265,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98263\/revisions\/98265"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98263"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98263"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98263"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}