{"id":97738,"date":"2026-03-02T12:34:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T15:34:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=97738"},"modified":"2026-03-02T12:34:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T15:34:28","slug":"hormuz-closure-threatens-shipping-oil-and-brazil-trade-flows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/hormuz-closure-threatens-shipping-oil-and-brazil-trade-flows\/","title":{"rendered":"Hormuz closure threatens shipping, oil and Brazil trade flows"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Analysts warn of higher freight costs and risks to exports to the Gulf as carriers halt transits<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The war by the United States and Israel against Iran, launched on Saturday (28), is rippling across multiple parts of the economy, with implications for Brazil as well. Beyond higher oil prices, pressure on ocean freight rates and risks to Brazilian exports to Persian Gulf countries, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt global trade in inputs and goods, specialists told Valor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Luis Augusto Medeiros Rutledge, a researcher at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and an energy geopolitics analyst, said the conflict in Iran could \u201cforcibly reshape global supply chains.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cI believe the impact today will be much greater on the global energy outlook and on supply chains for multiple energy sources,\u201d he said. More than 20 million barrels of oil per day pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway between Oman and Iran, he added.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Roberto Uebel, an economist and international relations professor at ESPM, a Brazilian business school, also said a halt in ship traffic through the strait could have a \u201cvery significant impact\u201d on global supply chains, affecting Brazil. For him, maritime logistics disruption is the main issue triggered by the conflict.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Shipping lines<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"Maersk
Maersk said on Sunday (March 1) that it had suspended transits through the Strait of Hormuz \u2014 Photo: Angel Garcia\/Bloomberg<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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At least 150 oil tankers have already dropped anchor in open waters, avoiding entry into the strait. Maersk, the world\u2019s largest container shipping company, said on Sunday (March 1) it had suspended the transit of its vessels through the area.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cThe safety of our crews, vessels and customers\u2019 cargo is our number one priority. We have suspended all vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz until further notice,\u201d the company noted in a statement. Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, Mitsui OSK Lines and NYK Lines have also halted passage.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The disruption could also hit Brazil through another jump in global ocean freight prices, depending on how long the conflict lasts, said Leandro Barreto, a consultant at Solve Shipping.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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He pointed to attacks by Yemen\u2019s Houthi movement on cargo ships sailing near Oman in 2024. The campaign led companies to choose a longer route around South Africa.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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At the same time, many shipments already en route to the Persian Gulf were forced to unload in Singapore, clogging one of the world\u2019s main maritime hubs. At the height of the crisis, delays in Singapore reached seven days.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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As a result, average global freight rates tripled in the first half of 2024. The same happened on the Asia-to-Brazil route, where prices tripled in the early second half of the year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Alternative routes<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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On oil, Rutledge said alternative routes could help mitigate some of the effects of a disruption in Hormuz. He pointed to two pipelines that could serve as options.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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One runs from the Abqaiq oil-processing facility, near the Persian Gulf, to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, operated by Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia\u2019s state-controlled oil company. The other is run by the United Arab Emirates and bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, linking onshore oil fields to the export terminal of Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Even so, the trend for oil prices is upward. Rutledge said a disruption in flows through Hormuz could push crude to $120 in a longer and more intense war, \u201cwhich would create significant pressure on the global economy and raise energy costs across all sectors.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Roberto Ardenghy, president of the Brazilian Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels Institute (IBP), said the situation remains open-ended and he does not envision oil at $100 a barrel. IBP represents the main oil and gas companies operating in Brazil. On Friday, Brent crude closed up 2.45% at $72.48.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In Ardenghy\u2019s view, if the conflict drags on, it could be an opportunity for Brazil to emerge as an alternative supplier to producers in the region. Brazil is the world\u2019s ninth-largest oil exporter, he said, with \u201cvery reliable production\u201d given the absence of geopolitical conflict, and high-quality pre-salt crude with low carbon emissions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In trying to win new markets, however, Brazil would face competition from countries such as Nigeria, Guyana and Equatorial Guinea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Risks to exports<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The conflict\u2019s impact on Brazilian exports to the Middle East is also a concern. \u201cWe mainly export sugar, chicken and soybeans. It\u2019s an interesting market for Brazil,\u201d Uebel said, while noting that Iran is not the main buyer of those products. \u201cThere is concern about the long-term situation, and whether these trade relationships will be maintained.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Brazil imports mainly fertilizers from Iran, but Uebel said there are other sources of supply in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. \u201cWhen the war in Ukraine began, the Brazilian government was concerned about diversifying its suppliers,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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(With reporting from international news agencies).<\/em><\/p>\n

*By\u00a0Lucianne Carneiro,\u00a0Marcelo Osakabe\u00a0and\u00a0Ana Luiza Tieghi\u00a0\u2014 Rio de Janeiro and S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analysts warn of higher freight costs and risks to exports to the Gulf as carriers halt transits       03\/02\/2026 The war by the United States and Israel against Iran, launched on Saturday (28), is rippling across multiple parts of the economy, with implications for Brazil as well. Beyond higher oil prices, pressure on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[26784,26785],"class_list":["post-97738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-hormuz-closure-threatens-shipping","tag-oil-and-brazil-trade-flows"],"yoast_head":"\nHormuz closure threatens shipping, oil and Brazil trade flows - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/hormuz-closure-threatens-shipping-oil-and-brazil-trade-flows\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hormuz closure threatens shipping, oil and Brazil trade flows - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Analysts warn of higher freight costs and risks to exports to the Gulf as carriers halt transits       03\/02\/2026 The war by the United States and Israel against Iran, launched on Saturday (28), is rippling across multiple parts of the economy, with implications for Brazil as well. 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