{"id":97529,"date":"2026-02-13T13:00:12","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T16:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=97529"},"modified":"2026-02-13T13:00:12","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T16:00:12","slug":"brazils-major-banks-raise-provisions-adopt-cautious-tone-for-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-major-banks-raise-provisions-adopt-cautious-tone-for-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil\u2019s major banks raise provisions, adopt cautious tone for 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Combined profit of Ita\u00fa, Bradesco, Santander and Banco do Brasil fell 4.4% to R$107.8bn, dragged down by BB\u2019s agriculture losses<\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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02\/13\/2026\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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Brazil\u2019s largest banks are entering 2026 with a more cautious stance after a slower 2025, marked by a modest credit expansion, higher loan-loss provisions, partly due to regulatory changes, and relatively stable default levels. With interest rates still high and presidential elections on the horizon, financial institutions see challenges ahead.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Ita\u00fa Unibanco, Bradesco, Santander, and state-controlled Banco do Brasil (BB) ended last year with a combined profit of R$107.8 billion, down 4.4% from 2024. However, the consolidated figure masks stark differences.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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BB was the main drag on performance, with its profit plummeting 45.5% due to losses in agribusiness. If only private-sector banks are considered, the combined profit would have grown 16.4%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Gross financial margin for the four institutions rose 6.4% to R$362.6 billion. But provisions for bad loans surged 22.7% to R$170.2 billion, driven by two main factors. There was a deterioration in asset quality, requiring banks to beef up their loss reserves.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In addition, a regulatory change played a role. Under Resolution 4,966, the Central Bank mandated a new accounting model based on expected credit losses, forcing banks to increase their cushions as they anticipate credit deterioration.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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BB\u2019s defaults<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Last year, delinquency rates among the country\u2019s largest banks remained mostly stable, except at BB. While the market average rose from 3% at the end of 2024 to 4.1% in late 2025, the large banks saw little change.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Ita\u00fa\u2019s rate fell 0.1 percentage point, Bradesco\u2019s rose 0.1 point, and Santander\u2019s increased 0.5 point. BB stood out, with its delinquency rate jumping 2 points to 5.17%. The bank posted deterioration across all segments, but was hit especially hard by agribusiness losses and a specific corporate case.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The four publicly listed banks also slowed credit growth. Their combined loan portfolio reached R$4.58 trillion in 2025, a 5.8% increase, well below the national financial system\u2019s average growth of 10.2%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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For 2026, a similar scenario is expected, with major banks maintaining a more conservative approach than the broader market. This trend is reflected both in their forecasts and in statements from executives.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Election-year caution<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Central Bank projects 8.6% credit growth in 2026. Ita\u00fa\u2019s guidance ranges from 5.5% to 9.5% (7.5% at the midpoint); Bradesco expects between 8.5% and 10.5% (9.5% midpoint); BB forecasts just 0.5% to 4.5% (2.5% midpoint). Santander does not provide public guidance but has adopted a more cautious tone than its peers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Ita\u00fa expects higher profit and sustained strong return on equity in 2026. Asked whether the bank\u2019s guidance was too conservative, CEO Milton Maluhy Filho said it was not defensive, but rather \u201crealistic,\u201d especially in an election year, which tends to bring heightened uncertainty. \u201cIt wouldn\u2019t make sense to aggressively expand credit and later have to pull back. But if we see opportunities and can deliver more, we will,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Santander CEO Mario Le\u00e3o said the key is to grow in the segments the bank has prioritized, even if it means losing share in others. \u201cI chose to grow in high-income clients and small and midsize companies. In those two segments, I need to grow disproportionately,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Santander\u2019s CFO, Gustavo Alejo, said the bank expects more pressure on provisions in portfolios like agribusiness and small businesses. These sectors are more sensitive to the base interest rate,\u00a0which is expected to remain high even as the rate-cutting cycle begins.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cGiven that we\u2019re still in a high-Selic [base rate] environment, it\u2019s only natural to see pressure,\u201d Alejo said. \u201cObviously we\u2019re working to reduce that pressure, and we\u2019re preparing for it.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Bradesco sees traction; BB to focus on retail<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Recovering and executing its strategic plan, Bradesco appears more \u201cgeared up,\u201d as CEO Marcelo Noronha put it. \u201cWe\u2019re seeing commercial traction, important credit growth, and potential for market share gains in specific segments.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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MNoronha is optimistic about the macroeconomic outlook. With inflation under control, he said, the Selic rate could fall to 12% by year-end. \u201cThat\u2019s our horizon. I see Brazil moving forward, unemployment is under control, and we\u2019re still optimistic, not pessimistic.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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At Banco do Brasil, the plan is to expand its retail portfolio, which has better risk-adjusted returns, while corporate and agribusiness lending is expected to remain flat. Overall credit growth at BB will be less than a third of the market average.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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BB CEO Tarciana Medeiros said Thursday (12) that 2025 was the most challenging year in her 26-year career at the bank, largely due to agribusiness losses stemming from Resolution 4,966 and a wave of bankruptcy filings.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Still, she noted that even with nearly R$80 billion in provisions, BB posted a profit of R$20.7 billion and delivered on its guidance, which was revised twice during the year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201c[The year] 2026 will also be challenging,\u201d Medeiros said. \u201cBut it will be a challenge we\u2019ve already learned how to manage.\u201d<\/p>\n

*By\u00a0\u00c1lvaro Campos\u00a0and\u00a0Lais Godinho\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Combined profit of Ita\u00fa, Bradesco, Santander and Banco do Brasil fell 4.4% to R$107.8bn, dragged down by BB\u2019s agriculture losses       02\/13\/2026\u00a0 Brazil\u2019s largest banks are entering 2026 with a more cautious stance after a slower 2025, marked by a modest credit expansion, higher loan-loss provisions, partly due to regulatory changes, and relatively […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[26768,26766,26767],"class_list":["post-97529","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-adopt-cautious-tone-for-2026","tag-brazils-major-banks","tag-raise-provisions"],"yoast_head":"\nBrazil\u2019s major banks raise provisions, adopt cautious tone for 2026 - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-major-banks-raise-provisions-adopt-cautious-tone-for-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brazil\u2019s major banks raise provisions, adopt cautious tone for 2026 - 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