{"id":97071,"date":"2025-12-30T19:56:01","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T22:56:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=97071"},"modified":"2025-12-30T19:56:01","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T22:56:01","slug":"gold-and-stocks-stand-out-amid-high-rates-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/gold-and-stocks-stand-out-amid-high-rates-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold and stocks stand out amid high rates, volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"
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High yield assets seen gaining fresh momentum in 2026 with rate cuts and U.S. growth<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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12\/30\/2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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In a year marked by interest rates at 15% and instability in both domestic and international markets, the balance for risk assets was positive. In the 2025 tally, gold took clear leadership, viewed as a hedge against inflation and periods of crisis, with a gain of 49.60% through yesterday, while the Ibovespa rose 33.43% over the same period. The benchmark index for real estate stocks (Imob) went even further, climbing 70.71%. But while the high Selic rate discouraged flows away from attractive fixed income, next year the combination of lower interest rates and healthy growth in the United States and other core economies should give risk assets renewed impetus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In general, Brazil benefits in such moments, says\u00a0M\u00e1rio Felisberto, chief investment officer (CIO) at Santander Asset Management. \u201cIn 2025, we saw a very positive trajectory in equities, and there does not seem to be much risk of something happening that would derail this path,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Felisberto expects uncertainty and high volatility ahead, given the lack of clarity around candidates and the very close odds between\u00a0President Lula<\/strong>\u00a0(Workers\u2019 Party, PT) winning re-election and a different name taking office in 2027. \u201cBut when there is a combination of a positive international backdrop and, domestically, economic fundamentals improving with falling interest rates, this tends to favor risk assets even if volatility appears.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Rog\u00e9rio Freitas, CIO for wealth management and private banking at the ASA Group, controlled by Alberto Safra, sees March as a turning point. \u201cThat\u2019s when the election will start to be priced in, because it is the deadline for candidates to step down from their current posts,\u201d Freitas says.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The start of rate cuts,<\/a>\u00a0expected in March by Santander Asset, could begin to reshape investor portfolios, Felisberto says. The asset manager projects that 2026 will end with the Selic at 12.5%. \u201cBut there is asymmetric upside risk toward lower rates if inflation expectations remain anchored and activity stays moderate, opening room for the Central Bank to cut a bit more,\u201d he says. The political scenario is the key factor in determining how low the benchmark rate can go by the end of 2026 and in shaping investment strategy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cKeeping interest rates at a higher level for longer has basically contributed to strengthening the real against the dollar and did not hurt equities, but from an allocation standpoint it pushed local investors toward a conservative stance,\u201d Felisberto says. Funds flowed into low credit-risk assets and tax-exempt bonds. Foreign investors, meanwhile, were the main engine of the stock market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In fixed income, the best performance came from the IRF-M, an Anbima index that replicates a basket of fixed-rate Treasury bonds, with gains of 18.04% year to date through yesterday. The IMA-B 5+, which combines inflation-linked government bonds with maturities longer than five years, and the IMA-B, with shorter maturities, lagged behind, rising 13.99% and 13%, respectively\u2014below the average Selic of 14.32% over the period. Projected IPCA inflation was 4.32%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The dollar, under pressure from seasonal profit and dividend remittances at this time of year, rose 4.41% in the month through yesterday but is down 9.9% for the year. In equities, the index tracking companies with strong governance and sustainability practices (ISE) advanced 34.38% over the period, while the index of smaller-cap companies rose 29.54%, in line with the consumer sector index (Icon), up 27.30%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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For\u00a0Marco Bismarchi, partner and portfolio manager at Tag Investimentos, Brazil still offers substantial yield in fixed income,\u00a0especially in inflation-linked bonds (NTN-Bs)<\/a>. This is where the firm currently allocates most of its clients\u2019 portfolios. In equities, he remains slightly positive, viewing the market as cheap and supported by the prospect of some rate cuts next year. \u201cWe know it will be a volatile year because of the election, but there is still some value.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Gold, an asset that goes beyond protection, according to Bismarchi, performed well due to the view that governments worldwide are spending more than they should, eroding the value of money. Exposure was reduced, however, after the sharp appreciation. Copper and uranium round out the portfolio as commodities tied to the electrification theme and greater use of artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In an environment of \u201cfinancial repression,\u201d caused by a phase of low or even negative real interest rates globally, followed by questions about fiat currencies, everything became expensive across global asset classes, says Freitas of ASA. Gold, silver, assets linked to the real estate chain, equities and credit across all risk levels benefited.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cThe next stage is emerging markets, as investors will seek yield to avoid losing money in other low-return assets,\u201d he says. \u201cIf there is no exogenous shock, this search should continue and emerging markets benefit from excess liquidity.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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A more neutral role for the state would allow the economy to operate with lower real interest rates, moving toward the average seen some years ago, Freitas adds. \u201cIf real rates fall from 10% to 4.5%, there could be a very significant repricing of assets in Brazil.\u201d That would boost equity valuations and shift a substantial portion of investor resources\u2014currently overweight in fixed income\u2014into equities and multimarket funds (Brazil\u2019s version of hedge funds). \u201cThere would be a major change in allocations by family offices, individuals and pension funds,\u201d says the ASA CIO.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Re-election and the possible continuation of economic policies that increase debt relative to GDP, however, bring as a side effect higher real interest rates, he says. \u201cThese current 10% real rates are the result of an excessively expansionary fiscal policy,\u201d Freitas continues. \u201cIf it goes in that direction, the market will anticipate it, the real will end up losing value, equities will decline, and the local market will be dragged down by this global repression environment.\u201d In such a setting, real rates fall for the wrong reasons, as inflation erodes the nominal Selic rate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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This binary political scenario favors NTN-B bonds, Freitas says, because investors are protected against potential currency depreciation feeding into inflation and stand to gain if outcomes are benign, with declines in the implicit fixed-rate component of the bonds. Overall, he advises maintaining exposure to equities and multimarket funds as well, because if conditions evolve favorably, the \u201cupside potential is very large\u2014it is worth it even while taking risk.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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A less restrictive external environment and the start of a rate-cutting cycle in Brazil will allow investors to hold portfolios less tied to the CDI, says\u00a0Jayme Carvalho Junior, executive superintendent for investments at Daycoval. \u201cThere is room for greater risk exposure, but not aggressively.\u201d Fixed-rate bonds and actively managed fixed-income funds are among the preferences, based on the expectation that the Selic will be reduced by two percentage points over 2026.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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There are also favorable winds for equities, which have managed to move on the fuel of foreign capital \u201cin a market that has become smaller, with fewer companies and no major IPO expectations,\u201d Carvalho says. \u201cBut there is a flow in a falling-rate environment that can leave more revenue and net cash in corporate profits, especially for more leveraged companies.\u201d He also sees opportunities in real estate funds.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Foreign exchange, in an election year, is the big unknown in the inflation and interest-rate equation. \u201cThere may be room at some point for greater volatility driven by issues that no one knows yet will be raised in the campaign,\u201d Carvalho says. \u201cHow will the fiscal issue be addressed? It matters for both the right and the left\u2014will someone tackle it?\u201d The sense is that this picture will be clearer between the end of the first quarter and the start of the second. \u201cBut rates will be falling and the economy will not be falling apart.\u201d Daycoval\u2019s economics team expects GDP growth of 2.2% this year and 1.7% in 2026, with the Selic ending at 13%.<\/p>\n

*By\u00a0Adriana Cotias\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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